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동적패널모형을 이용한 천해어류양식 생산에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석
심성현,남종오 한국해양과학기술원 2019 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.41 No.1
The purpose of this study is to identify factors influencing fish production of shallow-sea aquaculture in South Korea. This study employed the two-way fixed effect and random effect models based on the panel models and also the difference between GMM and system GMM models based on the dynamic panel models using the amount of fish farming production, the number of stocked fry, the number of cultured fish, the amount of inputted feed, the farming area, the number of workers, and the sales price data from 2010 to 2017. First, the two-way fixed effect model of the panel models was selected by panel characteristics, time characteristics and Hausman tests and also the model was statistically significant. As a result of the two-way fixed effect model, the number of stocked fry, the amount of inputted feed, and the number of workers were identified as factors that increase the fish production of shallow-sea aquaculture. However, the number of cultured fish and the sales price were analyzed as factors that reduce the fish production of shallow-sea aquaculture. Second, the system GMM model of the dynamic panel models was selected by Hansen test and Arellano-Bond test in order to identify whether or not the over-discrimination condition is appropriate. Based on the system GMM model, the number of stocked fry, the amount of inputted feed, the number of workers in this year and 1 year ago, the number of cultured fish 2 years ago, and the sale price 3 years ago were analyzed as factors that increase the fish production of shallow-sea aquaculture. However, the amount of fish farming production 1, 2, 3 years ago, the farming area in this year, and the number of cultured fish in this year and 1 year ago were identified as factors that reduce the fish production of shallow-sea aquaculture. In conclusion, this study suggests that it is desirable to control the amount of stocked fry rather than to expand the farming area for fish farming in shallow-sea aquaculture, so as to keep the sale price at a certain level by maintaining the appropriate amount of fish production.
근해어업 생산함수 추정을 이용한 규모수익 및 한계생산성 분석
심성현,남종오 한국해양과학기술원 2017 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.39 No.4
The production of Korean offshore fisheries has been gradually decreasing due to the severe depletion of offshore fisheries resources caused by excessive fishing efforts. The production of the offshore fisheries in 2016 was the lowest since 1975. So the federal and local governments in Korea adopted and implemented various fisheries management plans and policies in order to restore fisheries resources. However, these plans and polices have not been successful in re-establishing fisheries resources. Thus, in order to accurately diagnose the situation with regard to offshore fisheries, this study sought to estimate not only the return to scale by fishing gear of offshore fisheries, but marginal productivity of individual fishing gear based on production factors derived from offshore fisheries production functions. The study was organized in the following manner. First of all, this study estimates production functions of offshore fisheries. The Cobb-Douglas and the translog production functions are adopted as offshore fisheries production functions. Specifically, the functions are estimated by crew, vessels, and offshore resource as production factors. The offshore resource is estimated by the Clarke·Yoshimoto·Pooley model based on the surplus production model. Secondly, the fisheries production functions are extended to the fixed-effect model and the random-effect model with panel data. Thirdly, this study analyzes the return to scale of offshore fisheries and the marginal productivity of the production factors from the estimated offshore fisheries production function. In conclusion, this study suggests plans and countermeasures for productivity improvement by group (labor intensive or technology intensive) based on the characteristics of individual offshore fishing gear.
TAC 어종의 어획량 분석을 통한 TAC 제도의 효과 분석
심성현,이정삼,오서연 한국해양과학기술원 2020 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.42 No.2
This study aimed to analyze the effect of total allowable catches (TACs) on the target species. First to effects analyse of TACs, the 8 TAC target species and 75 non-target species were selected for which catch data were available before and after the introduction of the TACs. The 8 target species were simply compared to catch changes before and after TACs. Through the comparison, it was confirmed how the catches of target fishes have changed after the implementation of the TACs. Secondly, the Difference In Differences(DID) analysis was conducted to confirm the effects of the TACs on the catches of the target fishes using the catch data of 8 TAC target species and 75 non-TAC species. Finally, to overcome the limitations of the DID analysis, the random effects model was estimated to confirm the effects of the TACs on the catch of the TAC target species. Overall, this study confirmed that the TACs affects catches of target species, not only through simple comparisons of catches before and after the introduction of the TACs but also through econometric analysis.