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오차율을 이용한 교통존 특성별 통행발생량 조정계수 산정 연구
추상호(Choo Sang-Ho),이향숙(Lee Hyang-Sook),신천규(Shin Cheon-Gyu) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2012 국토계획 Vol.47 No.4
The paper estimates adjustment factors for trip generation by traffic analysis zone characteristics based on the trip error rates between forecast and estimated data. We collect both 2006 forecasts using the 2002 household survey and 2006 estimates using the 2006 household survey in the Seoul metropolitan areas, and explore trip error rates and patterns according to the trip purposes. This research obtains various socio-economic variables affecting the trip rate errors and conduct the correlation analysis. For the factors having correlations, proper strata are defined, respectively, and verified if they are statistically reliable through the analysis of variance. Then, the average adjustment factor and its range considering the standard deviation are generated at each stratum. Our results indicate that the four types of trips (i.e. total, commute, school, business) have adjustment factors. Finally, the adjusted trips are compared with the existing forecasts to evaluate the applicability of the adjustment factors. As results, the adjusted trips show lower trip error rates via RMSE(Root Meet Squre Error)%.
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