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      • KCI등재

        영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측

        송정아,최근호,김건우 한국지능정보시스템학회 2018 지능정보연구 Vol.24 No.4

        The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. 2013년 누적인원 2억명을 돌파한 한국의 영화 산업은 매년 괄목할만한 성장을 거듭하여 왔다. 하지만 2015 년을 기점으로 한국의 영화 산업은 저성장 시대로 접어들어, 2016년에는 마이너스 성장을 기록하였다. 영화산업을 이루고 있는 각 이해당사자(제작사, 배급사, 극장주 등)들은 개봉 영화에 대한 시장의 반응을 예측하고 탄력적으로 대응하는 전략을 수립해 시장의 이익을 극대화하려고 한다. 이에 본 연구는 개봉 후 역동적으로 변화하는 관람객 수요 변화에 대한 탄력적인 대응을 할 수 있도록 주차 별 관람객 수를 예측하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 분석을 위해 선행연구에서 사용되었던 요인 뿐 아니라 개봉 후 역동적으로 변화하는 영화의 흥행순위, 매출점유율, 흥행순위 변동 폭 등 선행연구에서 사용되지 않았던 데이터들을 새로운 요인으로 사용하고 Naive Bays, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Multi Layer Perception등의 기계학습 기법을 이용하여 개봉 일 후, 개봉1주 후, 개봉 2주 후 시점에는 차주 누적 관람객 수를 예측하고 개봉 3주 후 시점에는 총 관람객 수를 예측하였다. 새롭게 제시한 변수들을 포함한 모델과 포함하지 않은 모델을 구성하여 실험하였고 비교를 위해 매 예측시점마다 동일한 예측 요인을 사용하여 총 관람객 수도 예측해보았다. 분석결과 동일한 시점에 총 관람객 수를예측했을 경우 보다 차주 누적 관람객 수를 예측하는 것이 더 높은 정확도를 보였으며. 새롭게 제시한 변수들을포함한 모델의 정확도가 대부분 높았으며 통계적으로 그 차이가 유의함으로써 정확도에 기여했음을 확인할 수있었다. 기계학습 기법 중에는 Random Forest가 가장 높은 정확도를 보였다.

      • 영도지역 중고등학생들의 학교폭력 실태 연구 : 인문계 중고등학교를 중심으로

        송정아 고신대학교 영도발전연구소 1999 영도연구 Vol.1 No.-

        The industrial development and the populous cities have made environmental pollutions more serious. Especially, the industrial activities result in accumulation of polluted heavy metals in the body of organisms through the food chain, leaving extensive damages. Most of the residents in Youngdo-Gu(District). Pusan use mineral water around Mt. Bongnae as drinking water. It is very important that the chemical components and the level of bioligical pollution in the water should be tested for the health of the residents in Youngdo district as well as the rest of Pusan people who use the water. Thes study conducted 4 tests on the quality of mineral water in 8 spas around Mt. Bongnae at the monsoon (July to September) and at the dry season (May, June, October and November), respectively. It examined the chemical and biological components in the mineral water: the amount of chemical components such as Ammonia-Nitrogen. Nitrite-Nitrogen, Chemical Oxygen Demand, Cadmium(Cd), Cromium(Cr). Manganese(Mn). Lead(Pb), Zinc(Zn), and Copper(Cu) as well as the amount of biological components such as General Bacteria and Escherichia coli group. The mineral water in 4 spas out of the 8 spas tested had a positive response to Escherichia coli group. The water in the S-Ⅱ spa contained Escherichia coli group in the dry season of october and November. with the number of General Bacteria similar to that of the rest places. The mineral water in the BA and SJ spa showed a positive response to Escherichia coli group. The Escherichia coli group was detected in the BS mineral water that many residents used as drinking water. The YH mineral water contained no Escherichia coli group. with relatively more General Bacteria in the dry season of November. However, the level of the number of General Bacteria was below the allowance-value. None of the 4 spas that showed a positive responsee to Escherichia coli group were appropriate for drinking before boiling. All the places tested had no heavy metal. but they had various chemical components and General Bacteria below the allowance-value.

      • KCI등재

        패션모델과 여대생들의 신체 만족도 비교 연구

        송정아 한국의류산업학회 2000 한국의류산업학회지 Vol.2 No.4

        The purpose of this study was to investigate if there were any differences between fashion models and female college students' body cathexis and to examine the perception of their body form and satisfaction of clothing fit according to height, weight and body type. For this study 378 people, including 113 fashion models and 265 female college students were analyzed. Means, t-test and X²-test were used in data analyses. Significant differences were found between fashion models and female college students' body cathexis. For instance fashion models were more positive about their bodies especially concerning height. Fashion Models and female college students differed significantly in perception of their body form according to weight and body type. Perhaps they have another criteria. Fashion Models and female college students differed significantly in satisfaction of clothing fit according to weight and body type. The taller and Thinner, The higher satisfaction of Clothing fit.

      • KCI등재후보

        놀이에 대한 대상관계적 접근

        송정아 한국기독교상담심리학회 2008 한국기독교상담학회지 Vol.15 No.-

        The purposes of this study is to review the perspectives of object relations on the play and the representatives of God, the spirituality and the pastoral counseling on the play. Object relations centers upon the archetypes of human relationships formed by the childhood relation experiences. The maturation process with the play proceeds throughout life as the possibility of creative living. The facilitating environment is necessary for the child’s senses of existing and of continuity. The mixture of physical interactions of good enough mother and a setting of a good enough object relationship helps the infant personalize and develop the state of the “psyche indwelling in the soma”. Play therefore is a necessary part of living in the children. The relationship of the child and God is not objectively provided, but formed by the child’s subjective experience. Therefore, when the caretakers help children to meet the transitional object-God subjectively in the transitional space, then the God met in the transitional space may be perceived as playing God with children.

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