인플레 豫測에 있어서 媒介指標의 役割

朴俊佑 상명대학교 논문집 1984 상명대학교논문집 Vol.14 No.-

In many economic theories expectations about the future values of economic variables play an important causal role(s), since economic outcomes are influenced by the perceptions of various economic agents as to future economic state. Unfortunately the mechanism by which economic agents form their expectations, in general, is not known. This unobservable feature of the expectation mechanism has led many attempts to find a good proxy or model for the expectation mechanism. The traditional approach to this matter has been the use of current values rather than expected values of economic variables, based on the very unrealistic and simple hypothesis of convention that the current state of affairs continue indefinitely. Dissatisfaction with this naive view has led two opposing approaches. The purely extrapolative expectation hypothesis seeks the rationality of the expectation mechanism in the learning process of the public through experience with past inflation rates, concluding that the monetary authority or government can conduct effective countercyclical policies, since inflationary expectation is solely a function of the past inflation series and so changes in economic policy variables play no effective role in the inflationary expectation by the public. The rational expectation hypothesis, on the other hand, looks for rationality from various other pertinent aspects apart from the learning process involving past inflation experience and insist that changes in economic policies have a very effective role in influencing the inflationary expectations. This, in effect, precludes the possibility that the monetary authority or government could control the course of inflation. The purely extrapolative expectation hypothesis can be perceived to be a naive approach in view of the increasing array of other information which is made available, the accessibility of modem computer devices, and the role of the professional economic analysts. Achieving the optimal rationality of the expectation by the public, however, is still hampered by the constraints of the real time and information and computational costs of the expectation behaviour and also by what H. Simon refers to as the relativeness of the memorial power of human mind. In this paper it has been attempted to reformulate the propositions of the rational expectation hypothesis in order that it can embody these aspects of the expectation mechanism of the economic agents and to conduct a hypothesis test. The result offers an empirical support for the hypothesis that the information contained in the intermediate indicators is intensively used in addition to the past inflation series through the sequential exploitation behavior of the public and so the changes in economic policy variables most-likely have indirect effects on the intermediate inflationary indicators. And it also provides an ecletic view that the countercyclical policies formulated according to a formulated rule or system do have some control over the course of inflation though their effects are not as potent as suggested by the purely extrapolative expectation hypothesists.

헌법 다시보기, 각자의 꿈을 우리 모두의 미래로

박준우 한국노동사회연구소 2005 노동사회 Vol.102 No.-

스마트 와치 센서 방위각과 사용자 이동 방향 간 오프셋 추정 방법

박준우,이재홍,박찬국 제어로봇시스템학회 2023 제어로봇시스템학회 국내학술대회 논문집 Vol.2023 No.6

합작투자는 기업가치를 증가시키는가?

박준우 대한경영학회 2002 大韓經營學會誌 Vol.15 No.2

This study investigates the effect of joint venture in companies. To analyze the short-term abnormal stock reterns of joint venture, sample is 86 listed firms from 1988 to 1997. Using the market model and market adjusted model window is for event day -20 to +20. It is estimated that cumulative abnormal retern increses significantly from -4day to +5day in market adjusted model. Also, to find the determinants of cumulative abnormal retern in financial factor, it is used regression analysis. It is found that ROI are significantly correlated with negative sign. By ROE and ROA, investigated the past operating performance of joint venture company. As a results, It is estimated that ROE and ROA are substantially decreased for 3 years.

순간출력 발생기로서 플라이휠 구동기의 의미

박준우,공병훈,최진현,정은지,박영진 제어로봇시스템학회 2023 제어로봇시스템학회 국내학술대회 논문집 Vol.2023 No.6

화학발광 기반 크롬 수질연속자동측정장치 개발

박준우,박선구,홍금용 환경독성보건학회 2020 한국독성학회 심포지움 및 학술발표회 Vol.2020 No.9

Removal of Microplastics via Tannic Acid-mediated Conglobulation

박준우,서성백 한국고분자학회 2020 한국고분자학회 학술대회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.45 No.2

이미지의 디지털화와 저작권의 효력제한에 관한 연구 -미국의 ‘교육용 디지털 이미지 공정이용지침’을 중심으로-

박준우 한국경제법학회 2009 경제법연구 Vol.8 No.1

이 논문은 지금까지 교육·학문·수업의 목적으로 아날로그 시각이미지를 디지털화 하고 이용하는 것에 대한 저작권의 효력제한과 미국의 교육용 이미지의 디지털화에 관한 공정이용지침에 관하여 논의하였다. 공정이용법리는 이용조건의 합의를 위한 거래비용이 높은 경우 뿐 아니라 저작물의 이용으로 인한 사회적 이익이 저작물의 창작에 대한 동기부여의 필요성보다 더 큰 경우에도 필요하다. 미국의 ‘교육용 디지털 이미지 지침’이 학자들로부터 비판을 받는 원인은 공정이용법리의 두 번째 필요성을 전혀 고려하지 아니하고 있기 때문이다. 우리나라도 저작재산권의 개별적인 효력제한규정의 해석 또는 입법론, 나아가 앞으로의 공정이용법리의 성문화 가능성에 대한 논의에 있어서 공정이용법리의 두 번째 필요성을 충분히 반영하여야 한다. This article deals with the limitation on copyrights in the case of digitalization of analog images for educational purposes. Korea Copyright Act allows educational institutions to copy and display a part of a copyrighted work which is already publicized, without the permission of the copyright holder. Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act codified the judicially developed ‘fair use doctrine,’ which allows teachers and students to freely use a part of a copyrighted work, if such a use passes four considerations. This article examines the “Proposal for Educational Fair Use Guidelines for Digital Images(‘Guidelines’),” which were prepared to draw a bright line between fair and unfair digitalization of analog visual images and its use by teachers, scholars and students under section 107. After examining those provisions and the Guidelines together with their criticisms, this article concludes that the Guidelines considered only the ‘transaction cost justification for the fair use doctrine,’ and that the ‘public policy justification for the fair use doctrine’ should also be an essential part of the Guidelines.

중력모형을 통한 국경 간 전자상거래 무역패턴 분석

박준우,여찬구 한국무역통상학회 2021 무역통상학회지 Vol.21 No.6

This study examines the applicability of the gravity model of conventional trade to an analysis of the trade patterns of cross-border e-commerce. As a result of the analysis, the amount of trade between trading countries increased as the national income increased, while the trade amount decreased as the distance between the capitals increased, as in the existing gravity model. In addition, the increase of the consumer price index and the number of Internet users were found to have a very significant effect on the increase in trade volume. The analysis shows that the FTA has a more significant effect on the increase of trade volume than other regional economic cooperation organizations. Based on the results, it is essential to provide official development assistance (ODA), including Internet infrastructure, and to include convenience terms for the increase of e-commerce trade volume when resigning or renegotiating the FTA in order to secure a competitive edge in cross-border e-commerce trade in the future.

Removal of Microplastics via Tannic Acid-mediated Coagulation and in vitro Impact Assessment

박준우,서성백 한국고분자학회 2021 한국고분자학회 학술대회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.46 No.1

Microplastics are distributed in oceans worldwide, and the negative effects of microplastics on the environment and human health. Although Fe- or Al-salts are generally used for coagulation via electrostatic interactions, their microplastic removal efficiency is less than 40%. In this study, microplastic coagulation using metal-phenolic coordinate bonds was used to improve microplastic removal efficiency. Plant-derived tannic acid contributed to interfacial bridging between the microplastics and Fe³⁺. Using 0.5 µm polystyrene beads as model microplastics, a removal efficiency of more than 90% within 5 min was achieved. Rat intestine IEC18 cells exposed to purified water from the microbead suspension were risk assessed, revealing that water purified using the coagulation-based method reduced oxidative stress and inflammatory cytokines to levels similar to those in cells exposed to water without microbeads.