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박정도(Jeong-Do Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 대한전기학회 2009 전기학회논문지 Vol.58 No.9
In general, short term load forecasting is based on the periodical load pattern during a day or a week. Therefore, the conventional methods do not expose stable performance to every day during a year. Especially for anomalous weather conditions such as typhoons, the methods have a tendency to show the conspicuous accuracy deterioration. Furthermore, the tendency raises the reliability and stability problems of the conventional load forecast. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the forecast result in case of anomalous weather conditions such as typhoons. For irregular weather conditions, the sensitivity between temperature and daily load is used to improve the accuracy of the load forecast. The proposed method was tested with the actual load profiles during 14 years, which shows that the suggested scheme considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.
평일과 주말의 특성이 결합된 연휴전 평일에 대한 단기 전력수요예측
박정도(Jeong-Do Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song),임형우(Hyeong-Woo Lim),박해수(Hae-Soo Park) 대한전기학회 2012 전기학회논문지 Vol.61 No.12
The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays’ load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year"s day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.
박정도(Jeong-Do Park),이성환(Seong-Hwan Lee),도근영(Geun-Young Doe),성효성(Hyo-Seong Seong),장낙원(Nakwon Jang) 한국항해항만학회 2009 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.33 No.6
본 논문은 Newton-Rhapson법으로 조류계산을 하여 해양도시내 분산전원의 최적 설치점에 대해 연구하였다. 도시 내에 분산전원을 설치할 경우 대규모 발전소나 송전설비를 추가 건설하지 않고도 효율적으로 필요한 전력을 공급할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 따라서 전 세계적으로 분산전원은 도시 에너지원으로 주목받고 있다. 그러나 도시 내의 천원 설치지점 변경에 따른 전력손실 평가에 대한 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 분산전원이 주변의 선로에 미치는 전력손실을 최소화 할 수 있도록, 분산전원의 최적 설치지점을 선정하는 방안을 제안한다. In this paper we suggest optimal positioning algorithm for DER(distributed energy resource)s near ocean s?de by using Newton-Rhapson load flow calculation By installing DERs w?thin urban area, electric power can be effectively transmitted to each loads without constructing additional large scale power stations and transmission lines. Therefore, DERs have attracted worldwide attention as urban area energy sources. However, there are quite a few studies for estimation of power loss due to DERs' location change within urban area Hence, in this study, an opt?mal positioning scheme for DERs ?s proposed in order to minimizing electrical power loss.
박정도(Jeong-Do Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 대한전기학회 2013 전기학회논문지 Vol.62 No.4
Load forecasting is essential to the economical and the stable power system operations. In general, the forecasting days can be classified into weekdays, weekends, special days and special light-load periods in short-term load forecast. Special light-load periods are the consecutive holidays such as Lunar New Years holidays, Korean Thanksgiving holidays and summer special light-load period. For the weekdays and the weekends forecast, the conventional methods based on the statistics are mainly used and show excellent results for the most part. The forecast algorithms for special days yield good results also but its forecast error is relatively high than the results of the weekdays and the weekends forecast methods. For summer special light-load period, none of the previous studies have been performed ever before so if the conventional methods are applied to this period, forecasting errors of the conventional methods are considerably high. Therefore, short-term load forecast for summer special light-load period have mainly relied on the experience of power system operation experts. In this study, the trends of load profiles during summer special light-load period are classified into three patterns and new forecast algorithms for each pattern are suggested. The proposed method was tested with the last ten years’ summer special light-load periods. The simulation results show the excellent average forecast error near 2%.
군 조직에서의 조직공정성 지각이 조직유효성에 미치는 영향에 대한 직무스트레스의 매개효과
박정도(Park, Jung Do),허찬영(Huh, Chan Young) 한국인사관리학회 2012 조직과 인사관리연구 Vol.36 No.4
조직공정성의 중요성이 대두되어 다양한 조직을 대상으로 한 연구가 많이 있었지만 상대적으로 군 조직을 대상으로 한 연구는 거의 없었다. 본 연구의 목적은 군 조직에서도 기업조직이나 다른 정부 공공조직과 마찬가지로 조직공정성이 구성원의 조직몰입 및 직무만족 등 조직유효성에 영향을 미치고 있는지와 조직 공정성이 조직유효성에 미치는 영향에 있어서 직무스트레스의 매개역할을 실증적으로 검증하는 것이다. 자료는 군을 직업으로 선택하고 10년 이상 근무하고 있는 육군, 해군, 공군, 해병대 장교 및 부사관 1,233명으로부터 수집되었다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 군 조직구성원의 조직공정성 인식이 조직유효성에 미치는 영향을 확인한 결과, 직무만족에는 분배공정성, 상호작용공정성, 절차공정성이 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미쳤고, 조직몰입에는 분배공정성, 상호작용공정성만이 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 둘째, 조직공정성 인식이 직무스트레스에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과, 분배공정성과 상호작용공정성만이 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었고, 그 중 상호작용공정성이 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 마지막으로 직무스트레스의 매개효과를 검증한 결과, 분배공정성, 상호작용 공정성이 직무만족 및 조직몰입에 영향을 미칠 때 유의한 부분매개효과가 확인되었다. 본 연구는 군 조직을 대상으로 조직공정성이 조직유효성에 미치는 영향과 이들의 관계에서 직무스트레스의 매개역할을 실증적으로 검증하였으며, 이를 통해 군 조직에서도 지휘관과 인사관리를 담당하고 있는 관계자들이 조직공정성 지각 향상과 직무스트레스를 감소시키기 위한 관심을 증대시켜야 하며 아울러 제도개선 및 정책발전 노력의 필요성을 제안했다는 점에서 의의를 가질 수 있다. Although organizational justice has been widely studied, there has been a only a few studies related to military organizations. The purpose of this study examines whether organizational justice influences organizational effectiveness as much as other organizations. It is also to verify the role of job stress as a mediator between organizational justice and organizational effectiveness. A survey was performed to test the relationship. Samples from Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine commissioned and non-commissioned officers were taken, and a total of 1,233 questionnaires were used for analysis. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First of all, the study verified the influence of organizational justice on military organizational effectiveness. The results show that 3 sub-components of organizational justice, distributive justice, procedural justice, and interactional justice, impact positively on job satisfaction. Also, distributive justice and interactional justice impact positively on organizational commitment. Specifically, interactional justice gives comparative advantageous effects to job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Secondly, the results showed only distributive justice and interactional justice have a negative impact on job stress. Lastly, this research proves that a partial mediating effect of job stress exists between organizational justice and organizational effectiveness. This study is more meaningful in that verified the influence of organizational justice on military organizational effectiveness and mediating effect of job stress. Some implications that the commander and executive officer need to develop strategy related to personnel which enhances organizational justice and reduces job stress, and future directions were suggested.