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박요한,이철용 한국혁신학회 2020 한국혁신학회지 Vol.15 No.2
Environmental pollution has highlighted the importance of the electric car market as an alternative to internal combustion engine cars. The lithium-ion battery industry needs large amount of manufacturing facility investments, and market demand forecasts are important in terms of investment risk management. By presenting a model, this study took battery prices into consideration so that both market growth and electric vehicle growth competitiveness can be reflected in the forecast of demand in both the global and domestic lithium ion battery markets. The proposed model had better results than the Benchmarking model of the Bass, Logistic model in terms of predictability and accuracy. The global market forecast shows rapid growth in the lithium ion battery market starting from 2025. And as of 2030, the domestic market grows enough to play a role of semiconductor market. The scenario analysis of the domestic battery market showed that there was a six-fold difference in market size between optimistic and pessimistic approach, which necessitated a preemptive response. This study predicted the spread of the global lithium ion battery market by 2030, and reflected the scenario analysis for the domestic market and the battery price, which is an important factor in the lithium ion battery market and the spread of electric vehicles. 환경 오염으로 인해 내연 기관 자동차의 대체재로 전기 자동차의 중요성이 부각되고 있고, 전기 자동차의 핵심 부품인 리튬 이온 배터리 시장은 전기 자동차 시장의 성장에서 중요한 위치에 있다. 리튬 이온 배터리 산업은 대규모 제조 설비 투자가 필요한 산업으로 투자위험 관리 측면에서 시장의 수요 예측이 중요하다. 본 연구는 신기술의 확산에 중요한 가격을 반영한 새로운 예측모형을 개발하여 국내⋅외 리튬 이온 배터리 시장에 적용하는 것을목적으로 한다. 제안된 모형은 전통적인 확산모형인 Bass, Logistic 모형보다 적합성과 예측력 면에서 좋은 결과를 보여주었다. 세계 시장을 예측한 결과에서는 2025년부터 리튬 이온배터리 시장은 급격한 성장세를 나타내며 2030년에는 150조원의 시장으로 성장하는 것으로나타났다. 2030년 국내 배터리 산업 규모는 비관안의 경우 9.8조원, 기준안의 경우 33.2조원, 낙관안의 경우 약 56.7조원으로 추정되어 향후 배터리 산업이 국내 경제에 큰 기여를 할것으로 전망 되었다. 본 연구 결과는 리튬 이온 배터리 시장의 성장 예측을 통해 기업 및국가 사업의 전략 수립에 기여를 할 것으로 기대된다.
박요한,우정무 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2022 Journal of International and Area Studies Vol.29 No.2
Zones of peace in the world are found to be where economically advanced democracies are grouped together. Indeed, these countries not only enjoy political freedom and economic affluence but also peaceful foreign relations. While numerous studies have advanced theoretical arguments and documented empirical evidence on the democratic peace, relatively scant attention has been paid to how economic development brings about international peace. Representative studies on the economic peace have shown serious theoretical and empirical loopholes in establishing the relationship between development and peace. This present study identifies four related but distinct explanations drawing upon the rich theoretical tradition of the economic peace encompassing both classical literature and modern scholarship. It also offers a more comprehensive test against the all dyad year data of 1950-2011. The findings show that the rate of armed conflict is lower for developed dyads than undeveloped dyads and mixed dyads. Developed countries rarely fight each other.
N-Methylthioureas as New Agonists of Retinoic Acid Receptor-Related Orphan Receptor
박요한,박형근,홍석창,이명모,Hyojun Jung,조원제,Eun-Jin Kim,Ho-Young Son,이미옥 대한약학회 2012 Archives of Pharmacal Research Vol.35 No.8
Thirty two thiourea derivatives were prepared and their agonistic activities on the retinoic acid receptor-related orphan receptor α (RORα) were evaluated. The replacement of the 3-allyl-2-imino-thiazolidin-4-one moiety of the lead compound CGP52608 (1) with various functional group substituted aromatic rings, improved the agonistic activity of RORα. Among the prepared derivatives, 1-methyl-3-(4-phenoxy-benzyl)-thiourea (32) showed 2.6-fold higher agonistic activity than CGP52608 in the RORα-activation assay.
박요한,김용균,서덕준,서영훈,Chung-Seop Lee,송인걸,Dong Ju Yang,Ki-Hong Kim,Hyun Woong Park,Wan Ho Kim,배장호 대한심장학회 2016 Korean Circulation Journal Vol.46 No.1
Background and Objectives: Success rates of chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have recently been reported to range from 80% to 90%. A better understanding of the pathologic characteristics of the CTO lesion may helpful to improving CTO PCI success rates. We evaluated the CTO lesion in patients with stable angina (SA) by virtual histology-intravascular ultrasound (VH- IVUS). Subjects and Methods: The study population consisted of 149 consecutive patients with SA underwent VH-IVUS examination. We analyzed demographic and VH-IVUS findings in 22 CTO patients (17 males; mean, 62.3 years old) compared with 127 non-CTO patients (82 males; mean, 61.3 years old). Results: A significantly lower ejection fraction (57.6±13.0% vs. 65.4±8.8%, p=0.007) was detected in the CTO group compared with the non-CTO group. Reference vessel lumen area of the proximal and distal segment was significantly less in CTO group than in non-CTO- group. The lesion length of the CTO group was significantly longer than those of the non-CTO group (24.4±9.6 mm vs. 17.2±7.4 mm, p<0.001). Total atheroma volume (224±159 mm3 vs. 143±86 mm3, p=0.006) and percent atheroma volume (63.2±9.6% vs. 55.8±8.5%, p=0.011) of the CTO group were also significantly greater than those of non-CTO group. However, the lesion length adjusted plaque composition of the CTO group was not significantly different compared with that of the non-CTO group. Conclusion: CTO lesions had a longer lesion length and greater plaque burden than the non-CTO lesion in patients with SA. However, lesion length adjusted plaque composition showed similar between the two groups. These results support that plaque characteristics of CTO lesions are similar to non-CTO lesions in patients with SA
자동차보험 과실기준 기반 자동차사고유형 체계화에 관한 연구
박요한,박원필,김승기,Park, Yohan,Park, Wonpil,Kim Seungki 한국자동차안전학회 2021 자동차안전학회지 Vol.13 No.4
According to the Korean Traffic Accident Analysis System (TAAS), more than 200,000 traffic accidents occur every year. Also, the statistics including auto insurance companies data show 1.3 million traffic accidents. In the case of TAAS, the types of traffic accidents are simply divided into four; frontal collision, side collision, rear collision, and rollover. However, more detailed information is needed to assess for advanced driver assist systems at intersections. For example, directional information is needed, such as whether the vehicle in the car accident way in a straight or a left turn, etc. This study intends to redefine the type of accident with the more clear driving direction and path by referring to the Negligence standards used in automobile insurance accidents. The standards largely divide five categories of car-to-car/motorcycle /pedestrian/cyclist, and highway, and the each category is classified into dozens of types by status of the traffic signal, conflict situations. In order to present more various accident types for auto insurance accidents, the standards are reclassified driving direction and path of vehicles from crash situations. In results, the car-to-car accidents are classified into 33 accident types, car-to-pedestrian accidents have 19 accident types, car-to-motorcycle accidents have 38 accident types, and car-to-cyclist accidents are derived into 26 types.
아시아 개발도상국 대상 사이버범죄대응 교육 모형 개발과 적용
박요한,신지호 경찰대학 치안정책연구소 2020 치안정책연구 Vol.34 No.4
Cybercrime is rapidly changing according to the development of IT technologies such as mobile, blockchain, and data, so systematic countermeasures are needed. In particular, in order to strengthen the responsiveness of developing countries in Asia, which are vulnerable to crime, international social organizations are making global efforts to jointly respond to cybercrime, such as developing and transmitting systematic training programs. However, there is a limitation in that discussions on the necessity of education and training have been the main focus of the discussions, and detailed studies on the development of training methods and contents are difficult to find. Therefore, in this paper, a curriculum design model and methodology for countering cybercrime for law enforcement agencies in developing countries in Asia were proposed. It is possible to design a customized curriculum specialized for the subject of education through the design of a two-dimensional module matrix, which was not covered in previous studies, and weight calculation for each module. In order to verify the effectiveness and effectiveness, the proposed methodology was actually applied to the invitational training for strengthening digital forensic competence for Sri Lankan police officers, and as a result, high scores were obtained in the process evaluation. The proposed methodology contributes greatly because it can be used as a guideline when transferring the security system of the Korean national police. 사이버범죄는 모바일, 블록체인, 데이터 등 IT 기술의 발전에 따라 발생 양상이 빠르게 변화하고 있으므로 이를 위한 체계적인 대응방안이 필요하다. 특히 범죄 대응에 취약한 아시아 지역 개발도상국의 대응력 강화를 위해 국제사회기구는 체계적인 훈련 프로그램을 개발하여 전수하는 등 사이버범죄 공동 대응을 위한 범지구적 노력을 기울이고 있다. 그러나 그간의 논의는 교육훈련의 필요성에 대한 논의가 주를 이루었고, 훈련 방법과 콘텐츠 개발 등 교육 모형에 대한 상세 연구는 찾아보기 힘들다는 한계가 존재한다. 이에 본 논문에서는 아시아 개발도상국 법집행기관 대상 사이버범죄 대응을 위한 커리큘럼 설계모형과 방법론을 제안했다. 기존 선행 연구에서 다루지 않은 2차원 모듈 매트릭스 설계, 모듈별 가중치 산정을 통해 교육대상에 특화된 맞춤형 커리큘럼 설계를 제안하고 효과성을 검증하기 위해 스리랑카 디지털포렌식 역량 강화 연수 과정에 제안방법론을 실제로 적용해 보았다. 그 결과 과정 평가에서 높은 점수를 얻었다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법론은 그간 국제사회에서 제시되지 않은 아시아 개발도상국 대상 사이버범죄대응 교육 시 활용 가능한 실효성 있는 교육모형을 제시하였다는데 의의가 있다.