이슈 분석 : 중국과 아세안, 경제 밀월 시대 진입 -상호보완적 분업 체계로 교류 활발-

나희량 포스코경영연구원 2008 CHINDIA Plus Vol.21 No.-

Intra-regional trade of ASEAN+3: Trends and issues for the economic integration of East Asia

나희량 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2015 International Area Studies Review Vol.18 No.2

This paper examined the structures and characteristics of ASEAN+3 intra-regional trade through an analysis of intra-regional trade share, the intra-regional trade intensity index, and the regional trade introversion index in terms of primary goods, intermediate goods, and final goods. We could see that the economic integration of ASEAN+3 would be enlarged and deepened through the progress and advancement of intra-regional trade. However, we found that although the volume and share of intra-regional trade has been growing, this may not indicate or guarantee the inherent advancement of the economic integration of the region. In particular, since the global financial economic crisis in 2008–2009 the introversion of the EU and NAFTA has grown, while that of ASEAN+3 has reduced. In this respect, it would be vital to make and practice innovative plans to develop intra-regional trade so that the foundation of the FTA among ASEAN+3 countries could be the catalyst for substantial development of intra-regional trade. Furthermore, in order for intra-regional trade to continue to develop, a more comprehensive and higher level of intra-regional economic integration is required. This can be realized through regulation, specific plans, and practical effort. Finally, to maximize the effect of intra-regional trade liberalization this needs to go beyond the boundary of intermediate goods and expand into final goods, especially consumption goods.

베트남, 캄보디아, 태국 헌법에 보이는 전통적 문화 요소

나희량 부산외국어대학교 아세안연구원 2010 Suvannabhumi Vol.2 No.2

In this paper, we examine the traditional culture features of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand and above this we try to find out the evidences that traditional culture features are shown up through the Constitutions of three countries. First, for Vietnam, unlike the other two countries, we could find out the traditional culture feature of strong resistance and struggle against the foreign powers like China throughout the history. Also, the loyalty for the community and country could be added as the traditional culture features as well. In contrast, for Cambodia and Thailand, we could see other aspects of traditional culture features, such as the promotion and protection of Buddhism, historically sustained Kingship and respect for the King, the opportunistic foreign policy for the foreign powers to national survive. Furthermore, we could find out the evidences that these traditional culture features are shown implicitly or explicitly in the Constitutions of the three countries in all. Although three countries have different historical backgrounds, experiences, cultures, and value systems, we could see that the Constitution of the three countries show that the traditional culture features are vigorously alive in it. Thus, we can say that this proves that the flow of traditional culture features are not easily changed or stopped by an era or ideology and still alive in the heart of the people.

Modeling the Dollarization: A Case Study for Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

나희량 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2008 Global economic review Vol.37 No.2

We model the dollarization of three transitional economies in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam which have been experiencing the transition and reform process of the economy for the time period 19922007. Based on Rojas-Suarez (IMF Working Paper WP/ 92/33, 1992) work, we examine whether the holdings of US dollars depend on the effect of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates as expected by the model. Also, we examine whether the effects are proportional to the degree of the dollarization of the economy. The empirical results present that there are positive effects (expected) of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates on the holdings of US dollars. The coefficients are statistically significant only for Cambodia and Laos, not for Vietnam. The effect is strongest for Cambodia, and this may reflect the fact that Cambodia’s dollarization is stronger than those of Laos and Vietnam. We model the dollarization of three transitional economies in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam which have been experiencing the transition and reform process of the economy for the time period 19922007. Based on Rojas-Suarez (IMF Working Paper WP/ 92/33, 1992) work, we examine whether the holdings of US dollars depend on the effect of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates as expected by the model. Also, we examine whether the effects are proportional to the degree of the dollarization of the economy. The empirical results present that there are positive effects (expected) of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates on the holdings of US dollars. The coefficients are statistically significant only for Cambodia and Laos, not for Vietnam. The effect is strongest for Cambodia, and this may reflect the fact that Cambodia’s dollarization is stronger than those of Laos and Vietnam.

The Ramadan Effects on the Economy: Focused on the Volatility of Economic Variables of Indonesia and Malaysia

나희량 한국경제연구학회 2016 Korea and the World Economy Vol.17 No.1

This paper examined the impact of Ramadan, which is one of the most popular and typical religious ceremony of Islam, on the macroeconomic variables, covering the real, financial, and external sector of the economy in a way of quantitative analysis. We investigated the cases for Indonesia and Malaysia because Islamization policy has been strengthened and Islamic factors and influences are spreading and reinforced pervasively among the people. Utilizing the GARCH model to estimate the volatility of the economic variables, we found that there are statistically significant changes or differences in the movement of economic variables around Ramadan period compared with the other ordinary period, especially for Indonesia. It is believed that the volatility of economic variables could get larger because people tend to rebalance or compensate for the reduction in economic activities during Ramadan. It could bring people into more excessive economic activities after Ramadan, which could be the main reason for the increase in the volatility of economic variables. It may support the hypothesis that the religion affects the economic decisions and behaviors of people.

Opportunity Cost and the Demand for International Reserves: A Simultaneous Approach Incorporating the Supply Side

나희량 한국경제연구학회 2009 Korea and the World Economy Vol.10 No.3

This study develops a simultaneous supply/demand model of international reserve accumulation to examine the opportunity cost effect on the demand for reserves. If the opportunity cost is also determined simultaneously by the supply side, the coefficient of the marginal opportunity cost effect obtained from OLS estimation of reserve demand equations would be biased upward. Thus, we perform system estimation methods to verify and correct for the bias. Using data for 17 developing countries from 1994 to 2002, we identify an upward bias for over half of the countries examined and for the pooled sample that provides a stronger or reinforced estimated opportunity cost effect when we incorporate the supply side. The theoretical expectation of negative opportunity cost effects is firmly supported by a simultaneous supply/demand model.

Demand for International Reserves: A Case Study for Korea

나희량 한국경제연구학회 2007 Korea and the World Economy Vol.8 No.1

아세안의 보호무역조치 연구: 비관세조치 및 특정무역현안을 중심으로

나희량 한국무역학회 2019 貿易學會誌 Vol.44 No.3

This study examines the trends, current situation and implications of non-tariff measures (NTM) and specific trade concerns (STC) on the protection trade measures of ASEAN. ASEAN’s non-tariff measures and the share of specific trade concerns are very significant as they are the second and third largest, respectively, of the major countries. This means that protection measures using non-tariff measures are a strong feature of ASEAN’s trade policy. Also, in the future, ASEAN should try to prevent unnecessary disputes caused by exporting countries’ specific trade concerns in the implementation of non-tariff measures. Activating trade policy cooperation is likely to reduce conflicts and costs caused by these trade disputes.

미국-베트남 반덤핑분쟁 관련 시사점:비패턴거래 제외방식을 중심으로

나희량 한국동남아학회 2022 동남아시아연구 Vol.32 No.2

The zeroing, which considers a negative dumping margin to be zero, has long been the issue of WTO disputes. Regarding the washing machine dispute between Korea and the United States, which began in December 2013, in September 2016, the Appellate Body judged that the zeroing controversy was settled through a ruling that clarified the prohibition of zeroing in all methods of symmetric and asymmetric comparisons when calculating anti-dumping. However, in the rulings, the non-pattern transactions could be excluded from the calculation of anti-dumping, leaving room for another issue. It is not yet possible to predict whether the US will officially abandon the zeroing method and switch to a method that excludes non-pattern transactions. However, even if zeroing is not applied, if non-pattern transactions are excluded, in some cases, an anti-dumping effect similar to zeroing can be achieved, which is expected to be a new policy issue for exporting countries to the U.S. We analyze and evaluate the contents of the zeroing decisions and the non-pattern transaction exclusion method of the Appellate Body. In addition, focusing on the case of Vietnam, where anti-dumping disputes with the U.S. are increasing recently, policy implications will be discussed in the case that the U.S. introduces the non-pattern transaction exclusion method instead of zeroing.

CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) Business in Southeast Asia:Its Implementation and Implications

나희량 한국동남아학회 2013 동남아시아연구 Vol.23 No.2

1997년 온실가스문제로 인한 지구온난화 등 전 지구적 차원의 환경변화에 대응하기 위해 교토의정서가 합의되었다. 교토의정서 하에서 확정된 온실가스 감축을 위해 도입된 방안의 하나인 청정개발체제 (CDM, Clean Development Mechanism) 사업은 지속가능발전을 위한 유망한 사업의 하나로 주목받고 있다. 또한 청정개발체제 사업은 최근 각국 정부의 지원과 관련 시장규모의 급속한 확대 등으로 지속적으로 성장해 오고 있다. 이러한 추세는 향후 더욱 강화될 것으로 예상되며 특히 동남아시아의 바이오에너지 사업은 청정개발체제 사업의 좋은 사례로 주목받고 있다. 동남아시아는 바이오에너지 사업에 필요한 자연환경과 풍부한 천연자원 그리고 사업의 성장잠재력을 갖고 있다고 평가된다. 하지만 동남아시아는 동 사업의 발전을 위해 필요한 기술, 비즈니스 노하우, 자본 및 전문가 등이 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 먼저 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업의 현황 및 가능성에 대해 개괄적으로 살펴보고 동 사업의 지속적 발전을 위한 정책적 시사점에 대해 논의한다. 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업의 성공 및 확산은 전 지구 및 지역적 차원의 지속가능발전에 공헌할 수 있을 것이다. 또한 이를 통해 온실가스 감축을 통한 환경 보전 및 효율적인 자원배분을 담보할 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 본 연구에서 실시한 역외 국가들과의 비교분석 결과 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업은 초기수준인 도입 수준(entry level)에 있는 것으로 평가된다. 그러므로 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업이 보다 높은 수준으로의 발전을 위해서는 지역 내, 지역 간 협력이 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 이는 동남아시아의 지속가능한 경제적 발전에 공헌할 뿐만 아니라 화석연료의 고갈, 지구온난화 등 향후 위협요소로 다가올 변화에 대한 선제적이고 적절한 대응이 될 것이다.