중국-ASEAN 간 경제통합: FTA 이후의 변화를 중심으로

나희량 서울대학교 국제학연구소 2009 국제지역연구 Vol.18 No.1

This paper uses international real interest parity conditions to analyze the extent of economic integration between China and ASEAN, especially after China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement in July 2005. The two-way flows between China and ASEAN have been on a rapid increase after the China's joining of WTO in 2000 and especially after China-ASEAN FTA in 2005. The economic integration between China and ASEAN is expected to advance more rapidly and comprehensively. Uncovered interest parity condition and purchasing power parity condition based on real interest parity condition is examined to figure out whether the integration of capital market and, goods market is real in terms of econometric terms. The methodology has an advantage over using the volume of international trade and investment as a measure of economic integration. In particular, parity conditions have a foundation in macroeconomic theory and provide a benchmark of what could be expected if barriers to trade and investment between countries were low. The results of our analysis indicate that China and ASEAN were already highly integrated with respect to goods and services markets before FTA. In contrast, barriers to financial integration remained significant even before FTA. Also, they indicate that both goods and services markets appear more integrated after FTA in some countries. The integration of financial markets seems to have more room for future advancements. The impact of future liberalization mandated through WTO and the China-ASEAN FTA is expected to be pronounced in both markets. 본 논문은 실질이자율 평가설(Real Interest Rate Parity Theorem, RIRP)을 토대로 한 계량분석을 통해 중국과 ASEAN의 경제통합에 대한 시사점을 제시한다. 중국과 ASEAN 간 경제적 교역과 교류는 중국이 WTO에 가입한 2000년 이후 빠르게 증가하는 추세이고 특히 2005년 7월 중국-ASEAN 간 FTA 발효 이후 경제통합 현상은 더욱 심화될 것으로 전망된다. 이러한 경제통합의 실증적 분석을 위해 실질이자율 평가설에 근거한 유위험이자율 평가식(Uncovered Interest Parity, UIP)과 구매력 평가식(Purchasing Power Parity, PPP)에 대한 계량적 검정 및 두 지역 간 상품 및 자본시장 통합에 대한 분석을 실시한다. 검정을 통해 얻어진 결과는 대체로 자본 및 상품시장에서 모두 중국-ASEAN 간 경제통합이 FTA 이후 가속화되고 있고 특히 자본시장에 비해 상품시장의 통합이 상대적으로 급속하게 진행되고 있음을 보여준다.

동남아시아 경제위기와 종교․이데올로기적 대응 : 인도네시아, 말레이시아의 사례를 중심으로

나희량 부산 외국어 대학교 2011 外大論叢 Vol.37 No.-

본 논문에서는 인도네시아와 말레이시아의 사례를 중심으로 1997년 경제위기 이후 같은 외부적 충격에 대응하는 방식에 있어 국가 간 차이를 보이는 이유에 대해서 기존의 경제적 논리의 분석틀을 벗어나 종교, 이데올로기적 차원에서 접근해 보고자 하였다. 인도네시아와 말레이시아는 같은 이슬람 국가임에도 불구하고 경제위기에 대한 대응방식에 있어 상당히 상이한 모습을 보인다. 정치적, 경제적 정책의 성격 및 변화의 양상 및 더 나아가 정치권력 변동이 비경제적 요소라 할 수 있는 민족주의 및 이슬람적 담론에 의해 영향을 받고 있음을 알 수 있다. Following the non-economic approach, in this paper, we examine how Indonesia and Malaysia response to the economic crisis in 1997-1998 in perspective of religious and ideological way based on the Islam. Also we look into the reason of the difference between two countries after the economic crisis. Indonesia and Malaysia are even though the same Muslim countries, the economic crisis has got quite a different way. Political, economic policy and response, and further political power fluctuation seemed to be affected by the non-economic factors such as nationalism and Islam discourse after the economic crisis.

Intra-regional trade of ASEAN+3: Trends and issues for the economic integration of East Asia

나희량 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2015 International Area Studies Review Vol.18 No.2

This paper examined the structures and characteristics of ASEAN+3 intra-regional trade through an analysis of intra-regional trade share, the intra-regional trade intensity index, and the regional trade introversion index in terms of primary goods, intermediate goods, and final goods. We could see that the economic integration of ASEAN+3 would be enlarged and deepened through the progress and advancement of intra-regional trade. However, we found that although the volume and share of intra-regional trade has been growing, this may not indicate or guarantee the inherent advancement of the economic integration of the region. In particular, since the global financial economic crisis in 2008–2009 the introversion of the EU and NAFTA has grown, while that of ASEAN+3 has reduced. In this respect, it would be vital to make and practice innovative plans to develop intra-regional trade so that the foundation of the FTA among ASEAN+3 countries could be the catalyst for substantial development of intra-regional trade. Furthermore, in order for intra-regional trade to continue to develop, a more comprehensive and higher level of intra-regional economic integration is required. This can be realized through regulation, specific plans, and practical effort. Finally, to maximize the effect of intra-regional trade liberalization this needs to go beyond the boundary of intermediate goods and expand into final goods, especially consumption goods.

베트남, 캄보디아, 태국 헌법에 보이는 전통적 문화 요소

나희량 부산외국어대학교 아세안연구원 2010 Suvannabhumi Vol.2 No.2

In this paper, we examine the traditional culture features of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand and above this we try to find out the evidences that traditional culture features are shown up through the Constitutions of three countries. First, for Vietnam, unlike the other two countries, we could find out the traditional culture feature of strong resistance and struggle against the foreign powers like China throughout the history. Also, the loyalty for the community and country could be added as the traditional culture features as well. In contrast, for Cambodia and Thailand, we could see other aspects of traditional culture features, such as the promotion and protection of Buddhism, historically sustained Kingship and respect for the King, the opportunistic foreign policy for the foreign powers to national survive. Furthermore, we could find out the evidences that these traditional culture features are shown implicitly or explicitly in the Constitutions of the three countries in all. Although three countries have different historical backgrounds, experiences, cultures, and value systems, we could see that the Constitution of the three countries show that the traditional culture features are vigorously alive in it. Thus, we can say that this proves that the flow of traditional culture features are not easily changed or stopped by an era or ideology and still alive in the heart of the people.

Minimum wage levels across Southeast Asia: Trends and issues

나희량 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2014 International Area Studies Review Vol.17 No.3

This study examines the minimum wage system of major Southeast Asian countries and the trends and issues of minimum wages across Southeast Asian countries. In addition, a minimum wage determining model is set up with regard to macroeconomic variables, and the minimum wage determining mechanism is analyzed based on the estimation. By comparing the actual minimum wage growth and expected one in the years of 2012 and 2013, the difference is discussed in this regard. We examine the causes of minimum wage increase as well. The rapid increase in minimum wages in many Southeast Asian countries, indeed, is different from the existing change patterns. In particular, the difference between the actual minimum wage growth and expected one in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam is outstandingly higher than the previous averages. Such a rapid minimum wage increase indicates the greater effect of political and non-economic factors than that of conventional economic deciding variables.

Modeling the Dollarization: A Case Study for Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

나희량 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2008 Global economic review Vol.37 No.2

We model the dollarization of three transitional economies in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam which have been experiencing the transition and reform process of the economy for the time period 19922007. Based on Rojas-Suarez (IMF Working Paper WP/ 92/33, 1992) work, we examine whether the holdings of US dollars depend on the effect of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates as expected by the model. Also, we examine whether the effects are proportional to the degree of the dollarization of the economy. The empirical results present that there are positive effects (expected) of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates on the holdings of US dollars. The coefficients are statistically significant only for Cambodia and Laos, not for Vietnam. The effect is strongest for Cambodia, and this may reflect the fact that Cambodia’s dollarization is stronger than those of Laos and Vietnam. We model the dollarization of three transitional economies in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam which have been experiencing the transition and reform process of the economy for the time period 19922007. Based on Rojas-Suarez (IMF Working Paper WP/ 92/33, 1992) work, we examine whether the holdings of US dollars depend on the effect of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates as expected by the model. Also, we examine whether the effects are proportional to the degree of the dollarization of the economy. The empirical results present that there are positive effects (expected) of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates on the holdings of US dollars. The coefficients are statistically significant only for Cambodia and Laos, not for Vietnam. The effect is strongest for Cambodia, and this may reflect the fact that Cambodia’s dollarization is stronger than those of Laos and Vietnam.

Fair Trade Movement Seen from a Biblical Point of View

나희량 한국로고스경영학회 2010 로고스경영연구 Vol.8 No.3

We evaluate fair trade movement which has been developed in western countries in perspective of biblical economic value. Fair trade movement could be a useful tool to realize biblical economic values in world economy and international trade system. The movement could also play the role of resolving the poverty problem of under‐developed countries and accomplishing economic justice through ethical and monetary assistance for the producers and laborers. Fair trade movement in Korea has just started in the latest and is lack of resources and achievement. The participation of the local church is very low compared with that of western countries. We see that the needs and requests for local churches to care for social issues elevates in these days. Fair trade movement could be an effective way to expand the kingdom of God through participation in the community and loving our neighbors. For this we need the joining and assistance of Christian enterprises and local churches.

동남아시아 철강산업과 경제성장: Granger 인과관계 검정을 중심으로

나희량 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2011 국제지역연구 Vol.14 No.4

This paper examines the causality between steel consumption and economic growth, and steel production and economic growth of six Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) for the time span of 1972~2009 (1985~2009 for Vietnam) by the Granger causality test in a vector autoregression format. This study finds the existence of Granger causality running from both steel consumption and production to economic growth for Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore which show relatively higher living standard, steel consumption and steel production per capita than the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam. For the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam which have lower living standard, steel consumption and steel production per capita than Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore the causality between the factors does not exist or is not statistically significant. Thus, at least for three countries, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore, a higher level of domestic steel consumption and production could lead to an increase in national income. Our empirical results may imply that the increase in the steel production could not only meet the steel demand, but also contribute to the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries especially that of the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam . Also, the results may provide the logical background for governments’ assistance for steel industry. 본 논문에서는 동남아시아 주요 6개 국가(태국, 말레이시아, 싱가포르, 필리핀, 인도네시아 및 베트남)를 사례로 철강산업 발전과 경제성장 간 인과관계를 알아본다. 이를 위해 벡터자기회귀 모형을 기초로 한 Granger 인과관계 검정을 통해 1972~2009년(단, 베트남은 1985~2009년) 기간 동안 각 국의 철강소비와 경제성장, 철강생산과 경제성장 간의 인과관계 여부를 검정한다. 검정 결과 경제수준이 높고 일인당 철강수요 및 생산이 상대적으로 높은 태국, 말레이시아, 싱가포르 3개국에서 변수 간에 일방 또는 쌍방 간 인과관계를 확인하였다. 이에 반해 경제수준이 낮고 일인당 철강수요 및 생산이 상대적으로 적은 필리핀, 인도네시아, 베트남의 경우 변수 간 인과관계는 통계적으로 유의하지 않거나 미미하였다. 따라서, 철강산업의 발전을 통한 철강생산 및 소비의 증가가 보다 높은 소득수준의 증가의 요인으로 작용하였음을 확인할 수 있다. 이러한 경험적 결과는 필리핀, 인도네시아, 베트남의 경우에도 철강산업의 발전이 향후 경제성장에 기여할 수 있음을 암시한다.

Demand for International Reserves: A Case Study for Korea

나희량 한국경제연구학회 2007 Korea and the World Economy Vol.8 No.1

CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) Business in Southeast Asia:Its Implementation and Implications

나희량 한국동남아학회 2013 동남아시아연구 Vol.23 No.2

1997년 온실가스문제로 인한 지구온난화 등 전 지구적 차원의 환경변화에 대응하기 위해 교토의정서가 합의되었다. 교토의정서 하에서 확정된 온실가스 감축을 위해 도입된 방안의 하나인 청정개발체제 (CDM, Clean Development Mechanism) 사업은 지속가능발전을 위한 유망한 사업의 하나로 주목받고 있다. 또한 청정개발체제 사업은 최근 각국 정부의 지원과 관련 시장규모의 급속한 확대 등으로 지속적으로 성장해 오고 있다. 이러한 추세는 향후 더욱 강화될 것으로 예상되며 특히 동남아시아의 바이오에너지 사업은 청정개발체제 사업의 좋은 사례로 주목받고 있다. 동남아시아는 바이오에너지 사업에 필요한 자연환경과 풍부한 천연자원 그리고 사업의 성장잠재력을 갖고 있다고 평가된다. 하지만 동남아시아는 동 사업의 발전을 위해 필요한 기술, 비즈니스 노하우, 자본 및 전문가 등이 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 먼저 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업의 현황 및 가능성에 대해 개괄적으로 살펴보고 동 사업의 지속적 발전을 위한 정책적 시사점에 대해 논의한다. 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업의 성공 및 확산은 전 지구 및 지역적 차원의 지속가능발전에 공헌할 수 있을 것이다. 또한 이를 통해 온실가스 감축을 통한 환경 보전 및 효율적인 자원배분을 담보할 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 본 연구에서 실시한 역외 국가들과의 비교분석 결과 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업은 초기수준인 도입 수준(entry level)에 있는 것으로 평가된다. 그러므로 동남아시아의 청정개발체제 사업이 보다 높은 수준으로의 발전을 위해서는 지역 내, 지역 간 협력이 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 이는 동남아시아의 지속가능한 경제적 발전에 공헌할 뿐만 아니라 화석연료의 고갈, 지구온난화 등 향후 위협요소로 다가올 변화에 대한 선제적이고 적절한 대응이 될 것이다.