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김명직,장국현 아태경제학회 1998 학술대회 논문집 Vol.- No.1
The contagious nature of currency crises has been argued to be one of the main causes of the '97 Korea currency crisis. The usefulness of the index of exchange market pressure, which has been adopted in the empirical literature to define crises, is, however, open to question. Further, it is very difficult to assess the credibility of the indicator designed to warn future crises, because the observed number of crises is limited and its construction is subject to data-snooping bias. This paper provides the empirical evidence that the recent dramatic devaluation and the surge of volatility of Korean won are unrelated to the common force, it could be regarded as contagion per se or some unknown comon external shocks, that is believed to have driven the South Asia currency crisis. This paper also examines the nature of shocks that influenced real and nominal won-dollar exchange rates and finds that increased volatility in Korean exchange market, which may have provided the environment for speculative bubbles to grow, is mainly due to increasingly volatile real shocks since 1995.
한국 재래흑염소의 산자수와 생시체중에 대한 유전모수 추정
김명직,김상우,김재환,변미정,소충실,조영무 강원대학교 동물생명과학연구소(구 강원대학교 동물자원공동연구소) 2015 동물자원연구 Vol.26 No.1
The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic and phenotypic parameters of litter size and birth weight traits in three Korean black goat lines (Dangjin, Jangsoo and Tongyung) raised at the Animal Genetic Resources Station (AGRS) of the National Institute of Animal Science (NIAS). A total of 1,861 records collected from 2001 to 2013 were used for analyses with single trait animal models. The average litter size of Dangjin line was the largest (1.72 kids) and the average birth weight of Jangsoo line was the heaviest (1.88 kg) among the three lines. Heritability estimates of litter size and birth weight were 0.07 and 0.26, respectively. The average breeding value of litter size and that of birth weight of Jangsoo line were the greatest of all three lines, 0.15 heads and 1.88 kg, respectively. The correlation coefficients between phenotypic values and breeding values of litter size in the lines of Dangjin, Jangsoo and Tongyung were 0.054, -0.031 and 0.131, respectively. The correlation coefficients between phenotypic values and breeding values of birth weight in the lines of Dangjin, Jangsoo and Tongyung were 0.570, 0.454 and 0.521, respectively. The phenotypic correlation and breeding value correlation between litter size and birth weight were 0.031 and 0.003 in Dangjin line, -0.038 and 0.094 in Jangsoo line, and 0.109 and 0.121 in Tongyung line, respectively. These data suggest that the genetic parameters estimated for litter size and birth weight in this study could be used to improve genetic potentials of Korean black goats in industrial level.
한국 재래 돼지 근교 계통 돈의 산육 형질에 대한 유전모수 및 표준 성장 곡선 추정에 관한 연구
김명직,조규호,전기준,김영화,박준철,정현정,김인철,권오섭,진현주,김진형,이학교,Kim, M.J.,Cho, K.H.,Jeon, G.J.,Kim, Y.H.,Park, J.C.,Jung, H.J.,Kim, I.C.,Kwon, O.S.,Jin, H.J.,Kim, J.H.,Lee, H.K. 한국수정란이식학회 2007 한국동물생명공학회지 Vol.22 No.3
본 연구는 재래 돼지의 산육 능력을 개량하기 위한 기초 자료를 제공하기 위하여 축산과학원에서 2001년부터 2006년까지 20 kg에 검정을 개시하고 70 kg에 검정을 종료하여 발육 능력을 조사한 546개의 재래 돼지 산육 능력 검정 자료를 활용하여 유전모수를 추정하였으며, 재래 돼지 사육 농가의 사양방법 개선을 위하여 2003년부터 2005년까지 조사된 재래 돼지성돈 및 검정돈 132두의 발육 단계별 체중 및 체위 조사 자료를 다중 회귀 분석하여 재래 돼지 발육 표준 자료를 제시하였다. 재래 돼지의 주요 산육 능력에 대한 유전력을 추정한 결과, 일당 증체량과 등지방 두께에서 중도의 유전력이 나타나는 것을 확인하였으며, 체중 및 체위에 대한 성장 곡선을 추정한 결과 11개월령 이후는 체장, 체고 및 흉폭의 변화가 거의 없는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이와 같은 결과를 통하여 본 연구에서 추정한 재래 돼지 산육 형질의 유전모수를 이용하여 육종가 추정과 후보돈 선발에 적용함으로써 유전적 개량을 증대시키고, 발육 단계별 체중 및 체위 표준 자료를 재래 돼지 능력향상 연구와 사육 방법 개선을 위한 기초 자료로 활용함으로써 재래 돼지의 산업화에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. Records on 546 Korea native pigs for average daily gain (ADG), age at 70 kg (D70 kg) and backfat thickness (BF) made between 2001 and 2006 in herds on National Institutes of Animal Science in Korea were used to estimate genetic parameters. The data was analyzed by the DF-REML (Derivative-Free Restricted Maximum Likelihood) program of Boldman using a single-trait animal model. Heritabilities were 0.26, 0.09, and 0.29 for ADG, D70 kg and BF, respectively. The phenotypic correlations of ADG with D70 kg and BF were -0.71 and 0.30. The phenotypic correlation of D70 kg with BF was -0.15. The genetic correlations of ADG with D70 kg and BF were -0.11, 0.41, respectively. The genetic correlation of D70 kg with BF was -0.16. The data of weights and measurements on body length, body height and chest width after age at 11 months (days to 330) were shown scarcely less differences compare to data of age at 11 months.
김명직,장국현 한국증권학회 2009 Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies Vol.38 No.4
This paper proposes a simple joint stress testing model useful in studying the effects of specific stress scenarios on a financial sector. In doing so, we adopt the principal component analysis (PCA) as a main device to interpret various financial information contained in figures and numbers on a financial company. We repeat the principal component analysis across different levels from individual company to a financial industry, and eventually to a financial sector as a whole to derive a financial sector risk index. We then link the sector risk index with stress macro variables, which constitute a much simpler task than devising individual models for each financial components. Once a relationship is established, a joint stress test is conducted by repeating PCA conversely. As a sample of stress scenario in the paper, we use the case of the 2003 credit card distress. We find that securities industry is more sensitive to market stresses than two other industries-bank and insurance-and that financial institutions in such a stress-sensitive industry are, consequently, more affected by the stresses than those in other industries. Despite the simplicity of the proposed model, this model is expected to provide substantial information, particularly for financial supervisors without having to build a complicated joint stress testing model.
Stress EAD: Experience of 2003 Korea Credit Card Distress
김명직 한양대학교 경제연구소 2008 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Vol.13 No.1
The Advanced-IRB banks should be able to demonstrate to the regulatory supervisors that the long-run exposure at default (EAD) and downturn (or stress) EADs are validated with their own data on historical exposures. This paper proposes an empirical stress EAD model that is driven by a risk driver of the credit conversion factor (CCF) and by a systematic factor governing the cyclical effects of EAD and PD of facilities. Stress EAD is then computed as the expected value of EAD conditional on a particular value of the risk driver of a facility and on the value of a systematic factor that achieves, say, a 99.9% confidence level for a desired A or BBB+ rating. The reference data set (RDS) studied in the paper covers the corporate credit card exposures from 2001:Q1 to 2005:Q4. The most intriguing aspect of this RDS is that the sample period covers the severe 2003 credit card distress witnessed in Korea, which lenders it an excellent candidate for developing and validating the stress EAD models. The empirical evidence would provide ample opportunity to a better understanding of the meaning of Phi^(-1)(.999) in the New Capital Accord.