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수량화II류이론을 활용한 상수도관로의 안전성 평가 모델 개발 및 적용성 평가 연구
김기범,신휘수,서지원,구자용,Kim, Kibum,Shin, Hwisu,Seo, Jeewon,Koo, Jayong 대한상하수도학회 2016 상하수도학회지 Vol.30 No.1
Owing to time and cost constraints, new methods that would make it possible to evaluate the safety of the water supply pipeline in a less time- and cost-consuming manner are urgently needed. In response to this exigency, the present study developed a new statistical model to assess the safety of the water supply pipeline using the quantification theory type II. In this research, the safety of the water supply pipeline was defined as 'a possibility of the pipeline failure'. Quantification analysis was conducted on the qualitative data, such as pipe material, coating, and buried condition. The results of analyses demonstrate that the hit ratio of the quantification function amounted to 77.8% of hit ratio, which was a fair value. In addition, all variables that were included in the quantification function were logically valid and demonstrated statistically significant. According to the results derived from the application of the safety evaluation model, the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) between K-region's water supply pipeline safety and the safety inspection amounted to 0.80. Therefore, these findings provide meaningful insight for the measured values in real applications of the model. The results of the present study can also be meaningfully used in further research on safety evaluation of pipelines, establishing of renewal prioritization, as well as asset management planning of the water supply infrastructure.
최신 산업동향을 고려한 공업단지 사용량 원단위 분석 연구
김기범,유영준,최우진,구자용,Kim, Kibum,Yu, Youngjun,Choi, Woojin,Koo, Jayong 대한상하수도학회 2017 상하수도학회지 Vol.31 No.5
This study derived the unit of industrial water usage reflecting the latest industry trends. Available for establishing plans such as the master plan for water supply system and analyzed changes in the basic unit by a comparison with the current basic unit values. This study analyzed 4,038 samples with a sampling error of less than 1.5 % at the 95 % confidence level after removing outliers according to a log-normal distribution. As a result, the unit of industrial water usage per site area in the whole manufacturing industry was 7.11 m3/1,000m2/d. The ten industrial categories (C10, C13, C20, C21, C22, C25, C27, C30, C32, C33) showed a similar unit value compared to before, and the four industrials categories (C11, C17, C22, C31) showed a more unit value than before. With regard to the nine industrial categories (C14, C15, C16, C18, C19, C24, C26, C28, C29), the unit value decreased. Cases that companies examined before were the same as the companies examined in this study were analyzed. The result that the changes in the unit industrial water usage were reasonable was obtained. However, in some industrial categories (C17, C14, C24, C29), the unit value was changed by a small number of companies with large-scale water use or unit value of sampling had a large deviation. It was considered necessary to survey them periodically. The unit of industrial water usage derived by the survey in this study reflects the current industrial trends in 2016. Water use in manufacturing companies has continuously changed by the development of manufacturing technologies and simplification of manufacturing processes. In order to deal with this, it is considered necessary to survey the usage of industrial water periodically from a long-term perspective.