Potential impact of climate change on canopy tree species composition of cool‐temperate forests in Japan using a multivariate classification tree model

Matsui, Tetsuya,Nakao, Katsuhiro,Higa, Motoki,Tsuyama, Ikutaro,Kominami, Yuji,Yagihashi, Tsutomu,Koide, Dai,Tanaka, Nobuyuki Springer Japan 2018 Ecological research Vol.33 No.2

<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>Climate change will likely change the species composition or abundance of plant communities, and it is important to anticipate these changes to develop climate change adaptation policies. We chose beech (<I>Fagus crenata</I> Blume) and its competitive tree species as target species to evaluate potential turnover in forest types under climate change using a multivariate classification tree model. To construct the model, geographical presence/absence data for nine target species were used as multivariate response variables, with five climatic factors were used as predictor variables. Current and future distribution probabilities for the target species were calculated, and the 15 dominant forest types were subjectively classified in approximately 1‐km<SUP>2</SUP> grid cells within the area of the current beech forest distribution. All 16,398 grid cells of the beech‐dominant forest type (FCR‐QCR) were projected to be replaced in the future by five <I>Quercus crispula</I>‐dominant types (59% of FCR‐QCR grid cells), four <I>Q. serrata</I> types (22%), two <I>Q. salicina</I> types (8%), or two <I>Abies firma</I> types (0.1%). The FCR‐QCR type remained unchanged (stable) in only 11.4% of grid cells; these were mainly distributed at high elevations in snowy areas on the Sea of Japan side of the country. In contrast, vulnerable habitats (future probability of beech occurrence less than 1.0%) were found at low elevations on both the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean sides. Northwards or upwards range expansions or increases of <I>Quercus</I> spp., in particular, need to be carefully monitored.</P>

Vulnerability of subalpine fir species to climate change: using species distribution modeling to assess the future efficiency of current protected areas in the Korean Peninsula

Yun, Jong‐,Hak,Nakao, Katsuhiro,Tsuyama, Ikutaro,Matsui, Tetsuya,Park, Chan‐,Ho,Lee, Byoung‐,Yoon,Tanaka, Nobuyuki Springer Japan 2018 Ecological research Vol.33 No.2

<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>To facilitate the adaptive management of subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula under climate change conditions, we identified the climatic factors that determine the distribution of two dominant subalpine firs (<I>Abies koreana</I> and <I>A. nephrolepis</I>). We also identified sustainable and vulnerable habitats for these species inside and outside of current protected areas under climate change scenarios. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, and the amount of precipitation in the warmest quarter were the most important climatic variables that determined the distribution of these two <I>Abies</I> species. Potential habitats for <I>A. koreana</I> and <I>A. nephrolepis</I> were predicted to decrease to 3.3% and 36.4% of the current areas due to climate change, irrespective of whether inside or outside the protected areas. It was predicted that the potential habitats for <I>A. nephrolepis</I> would be maintained in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, and sustainable potential habitats outside the protected areas were predicted in central parts of the Korean Peninsula. The potential habitats for <I>A. koreana</I> were predicted to disappear from Is. Jeju and shrink significantly in the Korean Peninsula. These results suggest that, in central parts of the Korean Peninsula, revision of protected areas would be effective in preserving <I>A. nephrolepis</I> under conditions of future climate change. In contrast, revision of protected areas would be insufficient to conserve <I>A. koreana</I> due to their high vulnerability and limited populations. Active management is required to ensure the survival of <I>A. koreana</I> under future climate conditions.</P>

기후변화에 따른 한반도 난온대 상록활엽수의 잠재 생육지 변화 예측

윤종학 ( Jong Hak Yun ),( Katsuhiro Nakao ),박찬호 ( Chan Ho Park ),이병윤 ( Byoung Yoon Lee ),오경희 ( Kyoung Hee Oh ) 한국환경생태학회 2011 한국환경생태학회지 Vol.25 No.4

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 한반도 난온대 상록활엽수의 생육지 변화를 예측하기 위하여 CT-model을 이용하여 현재기후(1961~1990)와 3종류의 미래기후(2081~2100) 시나리오에서의 잠재 생육지를 예측하였다. 반응변수로서 난온대 상록활엽수의 실제 분포에서 추출한 유/무자료와 4가지 기후변수(온량지수, 최한월최저기온, 동경강수량, 하계강수량)를 예측변수로 사용하였다. 현재기후에서 잠재 생육지(PH)는 28,230km2로 예측되었으며, 3종류 미래기후 시나리오(CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2, HADCM3-A2)에서는 77,140~89,285km2로 예측되었다. 현재기후에서 토지 이용을 고려한 잠재 생육지(PHLU)는 8,274km2로 예측되었으며, 잠재 생육지의 29.3%를 차지하였다. 미래기후에서 토지 이용을 고려한 잠재 생육지는 35,177~45,170km2로 예측되었으며, 26.9~36.9% 증가하였다. 기후변화에 따른 난온대 상록활엽수의 분포 확대는 토지 이용에 제한되어 생육지 파편 형태로 진행되고 있다. 난온대 상록활엽수의 생육지 증가는 난온대 낙엽활엽수림과의 경쟁이 예상되며, 난온대 상록활엽수림대의 확대 및 북상을 시사하고 있다. The research was carried out for prediction of the potential habitats of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees under the current climate(1961~1990) and three climate change scenario(2081~2100) (CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2 and HADCM3-A2) using classification tree(CT) model. Presence/absence records of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees were extracted from actual distribution data as response variables, and four climatic variables (warmth index, WI; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; summer precipitation, PRS; and winter precipitation, PRW) were used as predictor variables. Potential habitats(PH) was predicted 28,230㎢under the current climate and 77,140~89,285km2 under the three climate change scenarios. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 8,274km2 and the proportion of PHLU within PH was 29.3% under the current climate. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 35,177~45,170km2 and increased 26.9~36.9% under the three climate change scenarios. The expansion of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees by climate change progressed habitat fragmentation by restriction of land use. The habitats increase of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees had been expected competitive with warm-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest and suggested the expand and northward shift of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest zone.

기후변화에 따른 한반도 사스레피나무의 생육지 예측과 영향 평가

윤종학,박정수,최종윤,나카오 카츠히로,Yun, Jong-Hak,Park, Jeong Soo,Choi, Jong-Yun,Nakao, Katsuhiro 한국환경영향평가학회 2017 환경영향평가 Vol.26 No.5

본 연구는 사스레피나무의 분포를 규정하는 기후요인과 종분포 모델을 이용하여 현재기후와 미래기후에서의 잠재생육지를 분석하기 위해 수행되었다. 4개 기후요인(온량지수, 최한월최저기온, 하계강수량, 동계강수량)은 모델에서 독립변수로 사용하였다. 17개 전지구 기후모델(GCMs; General Circulation Models)에 의한 RCP(대표농도경로) 8.5 시나리오를 2050년(2040~2069)과 2080년(2070~2099)의 미래기후로 사용하였다. 사스레피나무(Eurya japonica)에 대한 종분포 모델은 높은 분포예측 모델로 구축되었다. 사스레피나무의 분포모델에서 최한월최저기온이 사스레피나무 분포를 규정하는 주요 기후요인으로 분석되었다. 최한월최저기온 $-5.7^{\circ}C$이상 지역은 사스레피나무의 높은 출현확률을 나타내었다. 사스레피나무의 잠재 생육지는 2050년과 2080년에서 현재기후에서 보다 각각 2.5배, 3.4배 증가되었으며, 기후변화에 의해 점점 확대될 것으로 판단되었다. 사스레피나무는 한반도에서 기후변화 지표종으로 가능하며, 잠재 생육지를 모니터링 할 필요가 있다. The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.