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( Ansgar Belke ),( Martina Kamp ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 1999 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.14 No.4
High equilibrium unemployment and the inflation bias in some EU countries require fundamental reforms of labour-market institutions. Impacts of different monetary regimes inside and outside EMU on the incentives for labour- market reforms are examined in a Barro- Gordon framework from the perspective of a single country. Monetary policy (discretionary versus rule-based) and the degree of labour-market reforms are determined simultaneously. It can be shown that discretionary policy outside EMU leads to a higher degree of reforms than rulebased policy since in the former case reforms reduce both unemployment and the inflation bias. However, rule-based monetary policy inside EMU limits the benefits of reforms to a positive impact on employment. Nevertheless, total economy welfare under EMU is superior to the one under discretionary policy. Insofar as a superior instrument is available for the parallel reduction of the equilibrium inflation rate, namely a strict monetary policy rule, the higher degree of labourmarket reforms under discretionary monetary policy outside EMU only signals a kind of an overshooting. (JEL Classifications: E52, E61, J38)
The Euro Area Crisis Management Framework: Consequences for Convergence and Institutional Follow-ups
( Ansgar Belke ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2011 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.26 No.4
The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms of an efficient future crisis management framework one has to ask what follows after the EFSF and the EFSM expire in 3 years time. In this vein, this paper addresses the question of the political and economic medium- to longterm consequences of the recent decisions. Moreover, we assess what needs to be done using this window of opportunity of the coming 3 years. Which institutions need to be formalized, into what format, in order to achieve a coherent whole structure? This paper presents and evaluates alternatives as regards the on-going debate on establishing permanent instruments to support the stability of the euro. Among them are the enhancement of the effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact combined with the introduction of a "European semester" and a macroeconomic surveillance and crisis mechanism, fiscal limits hard-coded into each country`s legislation in the form of automatic, binding and unchangeable rules and, as the preferred solution, the European Monetary Fund. Finally, it elucidates the political constraints of the ECB, assessing the EFSF and Eurobond solutions.
Ansgar Belke and Lars Wang 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2006 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.21 No.1
This study re-assesses regional integration by taking new measures for thedegree of openness into account. The value-added based economic integration(VEI) model which improves on traditional economic integration models forms thecore of these openness indicators. We show that a shift from the usual proxies ofthe gross economic integration (GEI) model towards those of the VEI model leadsto a decrease of the realized degree of economic integration. Hence, the costs(benefits) are higher (lower) for a country from joining a fixed exchange rate areaas supposed by the standard GEI model. From this perspective, the outcomesbased on the traditional GEI model tend to overestimate the potential success ofa given monetary integration process. More specifically, even a revision of therecommendation for a country to participate in a single currency area might be aconsequence. Finally, empirical estimates of these new openness measures aredelivered for more than twenty countries. JEL classifications: C67, E20, F15, F42
( Ansgar Belke ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2007 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.22 No.1
This paper examines the degree of correlation of EU regional employment cycles and attempts to show whether these cycles reflect changing patterns of specialisation. By focusing on the regional level and by employing three different indicators of similarity of sectoral structure, it improves on existing studies. A dynamic panel data model is estimated for region pairs by within groups, i.e., by a standard fixed effects estimator. Special attention is paid to capture the rich dynamics which is typical of employment data. The key finding is that employment growth is more synchronised when regions look alike in their sectoral structure. The empirical results again highlight the problem of a common monetary policy for uncommon regions within the euro zone.
( Ansgar Belke ),( Lars Wang ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2006 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.21 No.1
This study re-assesses regional integration by taking new measures for the degree of openness into account. The value-added based economic integration (VEI) model which improves on traditional economic integration models forms the core of these openness indicators. We show that a shift from the usual proxies of the gross economic integration (GEI) model towards those of the VEI model leads to a decrease of the realized degree of economic integration. Hence, the costs (benefits) are higher (lower) for a country from joining a fixed exchange rate area as supposed by the standard GEI model. From this perspective, the outcomes based on the traditional GEI model tend to overestimate the potential success of a given monetary integration process. More specifically, even a revision of the recommendation for a country to participate in a single currency area might be a consequence. Finally, empirical estimates of these new openness measures are delivered for more than twenty countries.
( Ansgar Belke ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2002 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.17 No.1
What kind of additional co-operation (-ordination) is necessary and feasible to cope with the new institutional set-up under EMU? Starting from the episode of the repo rate cut by the ECB in early 1999, it is asked what would have happened under a business as usual scenario. In this case, the pre-Maastricht pattern of fiscal policy would have quickly led to grave problems. A promising alternative monetary-fiscal policy mix in the first half of 1999 consisted of a restrictive fiscal policy and a monetary policy which had - within the bounds of price stability-some leeway to act counter-cyclically.
Belke, Ansgar,Kamp, Martina 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1999 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.14 No.4
High equilibrium unemployment and the inflation bias in some EU countries require fundamental reforms of labour-market institutions. Impacts of different monetary regimes inside and outside EMU on the incentives for labour-market reforms are examined in a Barro-Gordon framework from the perspective of a single country. Monetary policy (discretionary versus rule-based) and the degree of labour-market reforms are determined simultaneously. It can be shown that discretionary policy outside EMU leads to a higher degree of reforms than rule-based policy since in the former case reforms reduce both unemployment and the inflation bias. However, rule-based monetary policy inside EMU limits the benefits of reforms to a positive impact on employment. Nevertheless, total economy welfare under EMU is superior to the one under discretionary policy. Insofar as a superior instrument is available for the parallel reduction of the equilibrium inflation rate, namely a strict monetary policy rule, the higher degree of labour-market reforms under discretionary monetary policy outside EMU only signals a kind of an overshooting. (JEL Classificaions : E52, E61, J38)
Belke, Ansgar 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2002 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.17 No.1
What kind of additional co-operation (-ordination) is necessary and feasible to cope with the new institutional set-up under EMU? Starting from the episode of the repo rate cut by the ECB in early 1999, it is asked what would have happened under a business as usual scenario. In this case, the pre-Maastricht pattern of fiscal policy would have quickly led to grave problems. A promising alternative monetary-fiscal policy mix in the first half of 1999 consisted of a restrictive fiscal policy and a monetary policy which had - within the bounds of price stability-some leeway to act counter-cyclically.