평화경제를 통한 한반도경제공동체 건설의 대전략 구상

윤황 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2013 평화학연구 Vol.14 No.5

The goal of this research is to analyze the meaning and value of peace and peace economy in the Korean Peninsula, and based on such analysis, to propose the grand strategic picture to establish the Korean Peninsula Economic Community. The conclusion of this study can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the meaning of peace in the Korean Peninsula is defined as strengthening the political, military, economic, social, and cultural trust between two countries, and as keeping a state without physical and structural violence in order to bring in the integration and unification on the peninsula. Accordingly, this report blamed the gloomy outlook on the value of peace in the Korean Peninsula and such as the enlargement of the political stakes and the trust relationship, the detente and reduction of the war threats, the escalation of the mutual accessibility and interdependence, the change of the ideological confrontation and mistrust, and so on. Secondly, the peace economics of this article is on the basis of peace through trade or interdependence theory, and on the viewpoint of inter-Korean economic interests toward the solution of the Korean Peninsula divided, the unification of South and North Korea. Consequently, this paper analyzed the value of the peace economy in the peninsula. Finally, in order to come to conclusions based on this research's results as a whole, this study suggested that the future step-by-step strategies to establish a Korean Peninsula Economic Community will be achieved progress in the clear direction of three-level steps: ‘the economic exchanges and cooperation between two Koreas (the first phase) → a Korean Peninsula Economic Community (the second phase) → the unification of the divided Korean peninsular (the third phase)’. Under this great strategy, this thesis underlines that two Koreas will have to pay attention on the foundation of a Korean Peninsula Economic Community towards co-prosperity under the peace economy of the North-South Korean integration. In conclusion, if a Korean Peninsula Economic Community is created, it will also contribute to explaining the look of a new Korean Peninsula as a situation where peace is settled, and members of people in two Koreas freely travel each other, and contribute to establishing a stable and prosperous Northeast Asia. 본 논문의 연구목적은 한반도에서 평화와 평화경제의 의미와 가치를 규명하여 한반도경제공동체 건설의 대전략 구상을 모색하는 데에 있다. 이 목적에 따른 본 연구의 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한반도에서 평화의 의미란 남과 북이 정치적∙군사적∙경제적∙사회적∙문화적 신뢰와 협력을 강화하고, 한반도에서 번영과 발전의 통합과 통일을 향한 물리적∙구조적 폭력이 없는 상태라고 규정되었다. 이에 따라 한반도에서 평화의 가치는 정치적 이해관계와 신뢰관계의 증대, 긴장 완화와 전쟁위협 감소, 상호접근성과 의존성의 확대, 이념적 대결과 불신의 변화, 평화적 통일방식의 희망, 개발협력의 증대 등에서 분석되었다. 둘째, 본 연구에서 의미하고 있는 평화경제란 ‘교역 또는 상호의존을 통한 평화이론’에 근거하여, 한반도분단의 해소와 남북통합 및 남북통일의 달성을 향한 남북 상호간 경제적 이익의 확보 관점에서 ‘평화적 통일’의 지향과 동시에 세계 평화와 인류 공동번영을 위한 ‘국제평화주의’ 추구에 기여하는 것이라고 규정한다. 이런 규정 하에서 남북경제교류협력을 통한 한반도경제공동체 건설의 평화경제적 가치는 동북아경제권의 중심축, G8 국가들과의 대등한 규모 실현, 통일의 경제적 토대 구축, 남과 북의 상호보완∙상생발전∙공동번영구도 고착 등에서 분석되었다. 셋째, 한반도경제공동체 건설추진의 대전략은 남북교류∙협력의 성과에 토대하여 한반도경제공동체의 건설단계로 진입한 후 남북연합(남북통합)의 완전한 통일경제권 달성이라는 방향성을 갖고 추진되는 것이다. 이 대전략은 평화경제의 한반도 공간확대전략의 차원에서, 즉 ‘한반도-동북아-세계’의 경제시장영토를 확대해나가는 방향성을 갖고 4단계 이행전략의 방향으로 추진하는 것을 제안하였다. 결론적으로, 한반도에서 평화경제론에 입각한 교류협력과 공동체의 건설만이 한반도평화체제의 구축과 남북연합(남북통합)의 달성과정에서 가장 결정적 기준점이라고 보았다. 즉 평화경제만이 남북관계의 미래발전 동력, 평화적 통일의 달성을 극대화시킬 수 있다고 확증하였다.

한반도평화체제 구축: 현황과 과제

박종철 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2008 한국과 국제정치 Vol.24 No.1

Establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula was included in the September 19 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks. The Statement was a comprehensive approach which compensates economic assistance, energy provision, and diplomatic normalization between North Korea, the U.S., and Japan for North Korea’s denuclearization. It also aimed at the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean peninsula, and construction of a multilateral security arrangement in Northeast Asia in order to solve the North Korean nuclear development problem. As a result, it became linked with the denuclearization of North Korea. This paper focuses on the following points and is a review of the efforts of constructing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula during the Roh Moo-hyun administration. First, the peace and prosperity policy and the goals of establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula that was a major goal of the Roh government were reviewed. The background against which the peace regime agenda was pursued within the wider context of the peace and prosperity policy was explained. Second, the linkage between the peace regime issue and denuclearization was analyzed. The Roh government’s peace initiative on the Korean peninsula was overshadowed by the nuclear issue as the second nuclear crisis arose in October 2002, even before the inauguration of Roh Moo-hyun. However, in the process of negotiation over the nuclear issue, the peace regime on the Korean peninsula was included in the joint statement of the Six-Party Talks. This opened a new opportunity for the pursuit of a peace regime on the Korean peninsula. On the other hand, it resulted in the advancement of the peace regime being linked to and dependent upon denuclearization. Third, the formation of the Korean Peace Forum, mandated with dealing with the peace regime on the Korean peninsula, was suggested. Several related issues were reviewed in this paper: the relationship between the Six-Party Talks and the Korean Peace Forum, the actual makeup, the timing of the formation, and its pattern of implementation. In addition, the meaning of the declaration of the end of the Korean War, its relationship to a peace treaty, and the declaration on the part of the three or four major parties were summarized. Fourth, the current state of arms control on the Korean peninsula was analyzed. Arms control on the Korean peninsula is a necessary element in guaranteeingthe peace and stability on the peninsula and promoting cooperation between the two Koreas.

연구논문 : 한반도문제의 특성에 입각한 한반도 문제 해결 과제

김종민 ( Jong Min Kim ) 아시아문화학술원 2012 인문사회 21 Vol.3 No.1

본 글은 한반도 문제의 특수성에 입각하여 한반도 문제 해결을 위한 과제를 제시해 본 것이다. 먼저 한반도 문제의 기원과 성격을 고찰한 후 현단계의 한반도 상황을 살펴 보았다. 다음으로, 한반도 주변 강대국들의 대한반도 정책을 통해 이들과 한반도가 어떤 상황하에 있는가를 살펴 보았으며, 결론으로 한반도 문제 해결과제를 제시하였다. 한반도 문제의 해결을 어렵게 하는 요인들은 남북한 당사자들간의 문제와 한반도를 중심으로 전개되고 있는 강대국들의 첨예한 이해관계가 상호작용한 결과로 설명될 수 있었다. 이러한 점을 고려해 볼 때, 현단계 한반도 문제의 해결을 위한 방안은 남북한 당사자 측면과 주변국가들과의 역학관계를 고려한 복합적 수준에서 제시할 수 있다. 첫째, 남북한은 한반도 냉전구조 해체를 위한 군사안보적 측면에서 대화가 다른 어떤대화들 보다도 우선되어야 한다. 둘째, 주한미군은 그대로 주둔하되, 전통적 역할과 함께 그 역할을 새롭게 모색해야 한다. 셋째, 북한의 핵 의혹 및 미사일 문제등의 현안문제 해결이 전제되어야 할 것이다. 넷째, 일본은 주변의 안보환경 개선을 위하여 북한과 수교하되 수교 과정은 물론이고 수교 이후에도 북한과의 관계가 건전한 남북한 관계를 촉진시키는 매커니즘으로 작용할수 있도록 한반도 문제에 있어서 긍정적인 역할을 해야 한다. 중국과 러시아는 한반도 평화와 안정이 자국의 지속적인 안정과 발전에 긴요함을 인식하고 남북한간의 문제해결에 있어서 평화적이고 선의적인 문제해결의 중재자가 되어야 한다. The present study presents the tasks to solve Korean Peninsulaproblems based on their distinct characteristics. First, the origin and character of Korean Peninsula problems are contemplated, followed by current Korean Peninsula conditions. Second, it is estimated what circumstances rule the Korean Peninsula and its neighboring big powers by the investigation of the policies of the neighboring big powers toward the Korean Peninsula. Lastly, tasks are put toward to solve Korean Peninsula problems. The obstacles to the solution of Korean Peninsula problems can be explained as results from the interaction between the South.North Korean issues and the sharp interests among big powers over the Korean Peninsula. Given this fact, solutions to current Korean Peninsula problems can be presented in the light of the power relations between South and North Koreas and their neighboring countries. First, priority should be put on military security dialogues for the dissolution of the Cold War system on the Korean Peninsula over any other dialogues. Second, the US armed forces in South Korea should continue to be stationed and seek to play a new role in addition to the existing role. Third, the solution of pending issues, such as North Korean nuclear weapons and missiles, is prerequisite to that of Korean Peninsula problems. Forth, Japan should establish diplomatic relations with North Korea to improve its neighboring security environment and play a positive role in Korean Peninsula problems so that its relations with North Korea can acts as amechanism to promote healthy South.North Korean relations during as well as after the process of establishing diplomatic relations. China and Russia should recognize that the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is indispensible to their continuous stability and development, and intervene in South.North Korean problems to get them solved peacefully and good.hearted.

중국학계의 한반도 연구 현황 -정치, 외교, 안보 영역을 중심으로 분석-

김동찬 ( Dong-chan Kim ),조열통 ( Yue-tong Zhao ) 한중사회과학학회 2024 한중사회과학연구 Vol.22 No.3

The Korean Peninsula, as one of China’s important neighboring regions, has unique and significant geopolitical significance. It is not only a key factor in creating a stable regional environment for China’s security, but also a long-term focus of academic research in Northeast Asia. The stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula and prospect of its unification have always been closely followed by scholars in related fields at home and abroad. The Chinese government has always stressed that it does not want to see military conflicts or wars on the Korean Peninsula and hopes for a peaceful resolution of the situation. However, in the context of intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China, South Korea-China relations are also facing new challenges. It is precisely because of this situation that the academic communities of both countries need to engage in more active and in-depth exchanges and cooperation to deepen mutual understanding and seek common interests. However, there are not many articles on this issue by Korean scholars in the past decade, so this paper focuses on the study of international political diplomatic and security issues related to the Korean Peninsula in Chinese academia over the past decade, to make up for the shortcomings of the related research in the South Korean academia. In order to enhance mutual understanding between the academic communities of South Korea and China, this paper employs a content analysis approach by extracting all articles on political, diplomatic, and security issues in the Korean Peninsula from the “China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)” database from 2013 to 2023, and constructs a database to conduct quantitative analysis. The paper first identifies the twelve most frequently occurring primary research themes from the database, and then analyzes them by year to provide a clear understanding of the current research trends and hot topics in the Chinese academic community on political, diplomatic, and security issues of the Korean Peninsula. In addition, to gain a deeper understanding of the current research situation of Chinese academic community, the paper also statistically identifies the top ten research institutions according to the highest article production. These institutions’ experts and scholars have conducted in-depth research on the Korean Peninsula issue and provided valuable insights. This paper introduces and analyzes the top ten research institutions and their experts and scholars, and then, as a supplement to the quantitative analysis, also introduces the experts and scholars who have researched political, diplomatic, and security issues on the Korean Peninsula outside of the top 10 research institutes. By doing so, this paper provides a comprehensive understanding of the academic trends of the Chinese academic community’s research on the Korean Peninsula issue. In conclusion, this paper conducts a quantitative analysis from various perspectives to draw several conclusions regarding the recent research trends on the Korean Peninsula in the Chinese academic community. The findings are intended to serve as a reference for the next stage of Korean Peninsula studies and to enhance mutual understanding between South Korea and China, thereby promoting further exchanges and cooperation between the academic communities of the two countries.

포스트 코로나 시대, 한반도 통일교육의 방향: 한반도 평화와 공존의 의미 변화를 중심으로

김창근 ( Kim Changgeun ) 단국대학교 분쟁해결연구센터 2021 분쟁해결연구 Vol.19 No.3

이 논문은 코로나19를 지나면서 나타나고 있는 국제관계 패러다임의 변화가 한반도 평화·공존의 의미에 주는 내용을 바탕으로 포스트 코로나 시대 한반도 통일교육의 방향을 제언하였다. 첫째, 통일교육은 포괄안보의 관점에서 다양한 한반도 평화의 의미와 융합적 접근을 강조해야 한다. 한반도 평화 이슈의 다차원성과 한반도 지역의 시·공간적인 평화·공존의 의미가 새롭게 설명되어야 한다. 기존 남북한 협력의 차원을 넘어 ‘한반도라는 상위의 미래 정체성’에 대한 인식 위에 새로운 남북한 협력의 의제가 상상되어야 한다. 둘째, 통일교육은 한반도 지속가능개발을 위한 남북한 평화·공존 협력의 연결과 활성화를 강조해야 한다. 한반도 지속가능개발을 위한 남북경협의 인식과 실천이 강조되어야 한다. 남북한 주민의 삶의 문제와 연관지어 일상적 평화가 강조되어야 하며, 일상적 작은 평화를 큰 평화로 연결하려는 노력이 한반도 평화·공존의 토대가 된다는 점이 부각되어야 한다. 셋째, 통일교육은 한반도 평화·공존의 규범과 레짐의 활성화를 위한 남북한 및 국제협력의 필요를 강조해야 한다. 남북한 생명·안전 공동체로서의 연결성의 의미가 우선 부각되어야 하며, 북한 비핵화가 한반도 평화체제의 구조 변경과 병행되어야 한다는 점이 인식되어야 한다. 북한 비핵화 대화·외교와 함께 구조적 차원에서의 한반도 평화체제를 구축하려는 정부의 역할이 강조되어야 하며, 한반도 평화·공존 협력을 위한 국제 공공외교의 중요성이 부각되어야 한다. This article suggested the direction of unification education for the Korean peninsula in the post-corona era based on the changes in the international relation paradigm appearing after the COVID-19 in the meaning of peace and coexistence on the Korean Peninsula. First, unification education should emphasize the meaning of peace on the Korean Peninsula and a convergent approach from the perspective of comprehensive security. The multidimensionality of the peace issue and the meaning of temporal and spatial peace and coexistence on the Korean peninsula must be newly explained. In addition, a new agenda for inter-Korean cooperation must be imagined on the basis of the recognition of the “superior future identity as the Korean Peninsula” beyond the current cooperative dimension. Second, unification education should emphasize the connection and vitalization of peace and coexistence cooperation between the two Koreas for sustainable development. The recognition and practice of the inter-Korean economic cooperation for sustainable development on the Korean Peninsula should be emphasized. Furthermore, the peace in the ordinary lives should be emphasized in relation to the problems of the North and South Korean residents’ lives, and it should be highlighted that the efforts to connect the peace in the ordinary lives build the foundation for establishing peace and coexistence on the Korean Peninsula. Third, unification education should emphasize the need for inter-Korean and international cooperation to revitalize the norm and regime for peace and coexistence on the Korean Peninsula. The meaning of the connection as a life-safety community between North and South Korea must first be highlighted, and it must be recognized that the denuclearization of North Korea must go hand in hand with restructuring of the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. In addition to North Korea’s denuclearization dialogue and diplomacy, the South Korean government’s role in establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at a structural level should be emphasized, and the importance of international public diplomacy for peace and coexistence and cooperation on the Korean Peninsula should be highlighted.

한반도 평화체제 논의와 구축방향

김동성(Dong Sung Kim),이상현,유재의,김종원,좌승희 경기연구원 2008 경기개발연구원 기본연구 Vol.2008 No.12

The peace and stability in the Korean peninsula has been one of the most important issues since the end of the Korean War. Not only the two parties of the peninsula, North and South Korea, but also the surrounding states such as the US, China, Japan, Russia all have the deep stakes in maintaining the peaceful environments in and around the Korean peninsula. This study argues for the establishment of the Korean Peninsula Peace System and proposes stepwise strategies for its attainment. This study divides the road to the Korean Peninsula Peace System and the beyond into three stages. The first stage has the goal of institutionalizing problem solving and conflict resolution between North and South Korea and introducing the framework for their peaceful coexistence. The second stage has the goal of constructing the positive peace between the two Koreas by resolving the fundamental causes of their conflict and setting up the nexus of co-prosperity and cooperation. The third and final stage opts for the reunification of the Korean peninsula as the ultimate way of realizing the true peace in the peninsula. This study suggests nine strategies for the construction of the Korean Peninsula Peace System and the reunification of the Korean peninsula. They are securement of the deterrent power, maintenance of power balance, formation of regimes, encouragement and promotion of North Korean democratization, deepening of economic interdependence, support of international society, guarantee of security, pursuit of integration, dismantlement of North Korean nuclear weapons program. These measures, combined together and applied timely, will be effective in bringing the peace into the Korean peninsula.

한반도경제공동체 형성을 위한 전략적 선택과 과제

성경륭 사단법인 한국평화연구학회 2009 평화학연구 Vol.10 No.3

The research objective of the paper is to look for how to establish a 'Korean Peninsula Economic Community' to promote South-North integration. To achieve this purpose, I suggested three important points. First, the June 15th summit meeting of 2000 and the October 4th summit meeting of 2007 paved a way for a peaceful and functional cooperation, breaking a political and military deadlock between North and South Korea. Those two meetings facilitated greatly inter-Korean exchange, trade, and even direct investment. They thus became a founding stone upon which a Korean Peninsula Economic Community, resembling European Community or European Union, could be built in the future. Second, the goals of a Korean Peninsula Community should be directed to maximizing common interests of utilizing all sorts of factors of production such as capital, labor, land, and natural resources which are available both in South and North; to expanding complex interdependence between two Koreas which will reduce military tensions and increase the chances for peaceful coexistence; finally to laying down a foundation for furthering economic, social, cultural, and political integration between two Koreas. Third, the way to develop a Korean Peninsula Community should take three steps approach: (1) economic exchange and cooperation between two Koreas (the first phase), (2) building of a Korean Peninsula Economic Community (the second phase), (3) the achievement of unification of two Koreas. In suggesting this proposal, I especially emphasized the importance of balanced national development not just of South but also of the whole Korean peninsula. This is because the whole Korean peninsula has enormous geo-political and geo-economic potentials. Positioned between China and Japan, two of the global giants, the Korean peninsula has a large number of strategic and economic strongholds that can be easily connected to many of economic and industrial centers of those two countries. The Korean peninsula can also be a bridge or gateway that links the immense Asian and European continents with the maritime countries (like Japan and USA). Therefore, a balanced national development strategy is needed to realize all these economic and political potentials. Considering the remarkable potentials of the Korean peninsula, it is urgent that the current Korean government should change its strategic position toward North from a hawkish approach to a more engagement-oriented one dealing with both cooperation issue and nuclear issue at the same time. With the change of strategy, it is necessary for two Koreas to institutionalize meetings of all levels, rules regarding investment and economic transactions, and rules for conflict resolution. 본 논문의 연구목적은 남북경제교류․협력관계의 현황과 과제를 분석하여 한반도경제공동체의 건설 방안을 모색하는 데에 두고 있다. 이런 목적 하에 본 연구의 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 2000년 6.15남북정상회담의 개최 이후 남북경제교류․협력관계는 그 이전에 비해 남북교역과 남북경협사업 등에서 크게 발전하였다. 이는 한반도경제공동체의 건설을 촉진시키고 있는 요인이다. 그러나 남북경제교류․협력관계가 남북관계의 특수성과 이중성에 기초한 구조적 요인으로 인해 여전히 해결해야 할 과제도 가지고 있다. 둘째, 남북경제교류․협력관계발전의 장기적 전략목표는 한반도경제공동체의 건설과 이를 통한 남북통합의 완성을 위한 것이다. 한반도경제공동체의 건설의 기본적 전략목표는 남과 북이 경제교류․협력단계의 발전에 따른 남북경제의 통합된 제도적 틀 속에서 공동번영, 선진복지, 동북아경제중심지의 실현을 추구함으로써 궁극적으로 남북통합을 달성하자는 것이다. 이런 전략목표 하에 한반도경제공동체 건설의 기본방향은 남북경제의 통합적·보완적 구조 형성, 민족통합의 경제적 조건 형성, 동북아중추국가의 건설과 동북아 협력의 증진에 두었다. 셋째, 한반도경제공동체 건설의 단계별 전략은 ‘남북경제교류․협력 단계→ 한반도경제공동체 단계→ 남북통합 단계’의 3단계적 방향으로 이루어져야 할 것이다. 이런 방향으로 발전할 때 남북통합의 통일한국은 적극적․실질적 대외지향의 개방형 경제협력에 나서면서 동북아경제권 및 세계경제권의 주축으로 등장할 수 있을 것이다. 넷째, 한반도경제공동체 건설의 발전전략에서는 무엇보다도 「남북경제교류․협력의 단계」에서 「한반도경제공동체의 단계」로의 진입전략이 필요하다고 보았다. 즉 현재의 「남북경제교류․협력의 단계」를 발전시켜 제도화된 경제통합의 「한반도경제공동체의 단계」로 나아가는 전략이 우선적으로 요구된다는 것이다. 다섯째, 한반도경제공동체 건설의 기본방향은 북한경제가 남한경제와 대등한 수준으로 발전하는 것을 목표로 경제발전전략을 추진해야 한다는 점, 수출을 위한 경제발전은 ‘특구’를 통해 이루어지는 것이 효율적이기 때문에 남과 북은 특구를 중심으로 산업발전을 추진하여 이를 특구 이외로 확산해야 한다는 점, 북측 경제발전의 애로를 해소하기 위해서는 우선적으로 북측의 「기본적 수요」가 충족되어야 한다는 점에 두었다. 여섯째, ‘남북교류․협력의 성과→ 한반도경제공동체의 건설→ 남북통합의 완전한 통일경제 달성’이라는 대전략의 구도 하에 한반도경제공동체가 추진되어야 한다고 보았다. 이런 구도 하에 한반도경제공동체의 3단계별 추진방안을 제시하였다. 이 추진방안에 따른 분야별 주요추진사업은 경제특구 개발, 기반시설 개발협력, 한반도 평화번영지대 구축, 남북공존공영 기반 형성, 새로운 경협 추진기반 마련, 한반도경제공동체 기반 강화 등을 제시하였다.

North Korea’s Nuclear Armament and China’s Strategic Dilemma

왕양청 (사) 한국전략문제연구소 2009 전략연구 Vol.- No.46

Recently, the security and stability in Korean Peninsula highly attracts global attentions for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched a series of missile tests and conducted an underground nuclear test. The tension in the Peninsula seems to be escalating. The United Nations Security Council members unanimously adopted Resolution 1874. It imposed a series of tougher sanctions on the DPRK. The People’s Republic of China holds its hedging strategy to the DPRK in different dimensions. For its long-term stance, China urges North Korea to live up to its commitment to denuclearization in Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, China calls for a calm response from all parties concerned and urges them to pursue peaceful resolution of the current situation provoked by North Korea through consultation and dialogue. How long China holds its hedging strategy depends on China and DPRK’s common interests. Therefore, studying China’s strategic intention and its military buildup is helpful to understand whether China is going to adjust its stance in the near future. Based on China’s strategic intention, its military build-up is the backbone for China to carryout its intention. Therefore, military modernization becomes China’s priority while its economic rapidly rises. Two very important factors must be taken into account while analyzing China’s perspective on the possibilities of the changes of military balance in Korean Peninsula. The first one is the willing of both the DPRK and China. The second one is the stability of the domestic situation in North Korea, especially during the power transition period. If North Korea continuously processes its nuclear program, the military balance would be changed asymmetrically. The situation of military imbalance can be divided into strategic and conventional levels. The strategic imbalance is to lean to the North, while the conventional one is to lean into the South in the Peninsula. In the recent years, China doesn’t take harsh actions toward North Korea even if China is strongly demanded by the international community. At the current stage, how it should act is a strategic dilemma for China. How much influence China has on North Korea is one of the key factors for China. The international community expects China to do more efforts on this issue. Then, whether China takes harsh reaction to the DPRK and how China takes its actions are China’s strategic dilemma. If North Korea successfully accomplished its nuclear program, it would offer Japan and the ROK an excellent excuse to initiate their nuclear development programs. Then, China’s strategic superiority over the regional countries may fade, which doesn’t meet China’s national interests. To study China’s possible actions to the current development in Korean Peninsula, both strategic cultures of China and North Korea need to be studied. In the near future, Korean Peninsula remains as one of the potential flashpoints in the region. Descending the tension is the expectation from the international community. How to bridge the gap is the cornerstone for resolving the current crisis. How China acts and how North Korea responds are followed by what China wants and what North Korea intends to. Without understanding mutual strategic cultures and their ultimate wants, the outcome may cause the situation worse. Recently, the security and stability in Korean Peninsula highly attracts global attentions for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched a series of missile tests and conducted an underground nuclear test. The tension in the Peninsula seems to be escalating. The United Nations Security Council members unanimously adopted Resolution 1874. It imposed a series of tougher sanctions on the DPRK. The People’s Republic of China holds its hedging strategy to the DPRK in different dimensions. For its long-term stance, China urges North Korea to live up to its commitment to denuclearization in Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, China calls for a calm response from all parties concerned and urges them to pursue peaceful resolution of the current situation provoked by North Korea through consultation and dialogue. How long China holds its hedging strategy depends on China and DPRK’s common interests. Therefore, studying China’s strategic intention and its military buildup is helpful to understand whether China is going to adjust its stance in the near future. Based on China’s strategic intention, its military build-up is the backbone for China to carryout its intention. Therefore, military modernization becomes China’s priority while its economic rapidly rises. Two very important factors must be taken into account while analyzing China’s perspective on the possibilities of the changes of military balance in Korean Peninsula. The first one is the willing of both the DPRK and China. The second one is the stability of the domestic situation in North Korea, especially during the power transition period. If North Korea continuously processes its nuclear program, the military balance would be changed asymmetrically. The situation of military imbalance can be divided into strategic and conventional levels. The strategic imbalance is to lean to the North, while the conventional one is to lean into the South in the Peninsula. In the recent years, China doesn’t take harsh actions toward North Korea even if China is strongly demanded by the international community. At the current stage, how it should act is a strategic dilemma for China. How much influence China has on North Korea is one of the key factors for China. The international community expects China to do more efforts on this issue. Then, whether China takes harsh reaction to the DPRK and how China takes its actions are China’s strategic dilemma. If North Korea successfully accomplished its nuclear program, it would offer Japan and the ROK an excellent excuse to initiate their nuclear development programs. Then, China’s strategic superiority over the regional countries may fade, which doesn’t meet China’s national interests. To study China’s possible actions to the current development in Korean Peninsula, both strategic cultures of China and North Korea need to be studied. In the near future, Korean Peninsula remains as one of the potential flashpoints in the region. Descending the tension is the expectation from the international community. How to bridge the gap is the cornerstone for resolving the current crisis. How China acts and how North Korea responds are followed by what China wants and what North Korea intends to. Without understanding mutual strategic cultures and their ultimate wants, the outcome may cause the situation worse.

한반도 평화와 민주법학 ; 한미상호방위조약의 수평화

최철영 ( Choe Cheol Yeong ) 민주주의법학연구회 2004 민주법학 Vol.0 No.25

한중 전략적 협력과 한반도 신뢰프로세스

문흥호 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2013 중소연구 Vol.37 No.3

The new leaderships of Korea and China seek to ensure the internal stability of Korean-Chinese relations and expand the strategic cooperation between them. This trend is expected to have positive effects on South and North Korean relations, the peace and stability of Korean peninsula, and moreover on the creation of the environment for the unification of these two nations. However, considering the unique political reality of Korean-Chinese relations and exogenous variables like North Korea, the US, and Japan, the process of Korea-China strategic cooperation would face a gantlet of problems. In particular, the discrepancy in perspectives of North Korea and the solution to the nuclear issues has a possibility to weaken the strategic cooperation of two nations. The result would determine the success or failure of ‘Korean Peninsula Trust Process’ which is the basis of Park government’s policy on the Korean peninsula. This paper tries to analyze the correlation between Korea-China Strategic Cooperation and Korean Peninsula Trust Process with consideration for the problems mentioned above. This paper firstly examines, by analyzing Korea-China summit last June 27, the political implications of mutual perceptions of two nations, keynote policies and ‘Joint Statement for the Future Vision of South Korea and China’ which is a blueprint for the future relationship of China and Korea. Secondly, this paper considers the core contents, goal and conditions of successful ‘Korean Peninsula Trust Process’ in connection with Chinese factor. Lastly, this paper examines the conditions for virtuous cycle of ‘strengthening of Korea-China Strategic Cooperation’ and ‘positive outcomes of Korean Peninsula Trust Process’. The conditions will be categorized into the substantialization of Korea-China strategic dialogues and their policies toward North Korea. In conclusion, the strengthening of Korea-China Strategic Cooperation is anticipated to provide strong momentum for Korean Peninsula Trust Process. However, Korea-China Strategic Cooperation entails its own structural constraints and Korean Peninsula Trust Process is overly weighted toward positive anticipations as well. Hence, the internal and external efforts of Korea and China to overcome the limitations and the affirmative responses of countries involved would determine the fruits of Korean Peninsula Trust Process. 한중 신지도부가 지향하는 한중관계의 내실화와 전략적 협력의 확대는 남북한 관계개선과 한반도 평화․안정, 더 나아가 한반도 통일 환경 조성에 긍정적인 요인으로 작용할 것이다. 그러나 한중관계의 고유한 정치․안보적 현실과 북한, 미국, 일본 등 대외적 변수를 고려할 때 한중 전략적 협력 과정에는 극복해야 할 난제가 산적해 있다. 특히 북한의 미래상과 핵문제 해결 방식, 절차에 관한 기본 인식 차이는 한중 전략적 협력을 부실화할 가능성이 있으며 그 결과는 박근혜정부의 한반도정책 근간인 ‘한반도 신뢰프로세스’의 성패에 결정적인 영향을 미치게 될 것이다. 본 논문은 이러한 문제의식을 바탕으로 한중 전략적 협력과 한반도 신뢰 프로세스의 상관성을 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 첫째, 2013년 6월 한중 정상회담을 통해 나타난 양국 지도부의 상호인식과 정책 기조, 한중관계의 미래 청사진인 ‘한중미래비전공동성명’의 정책적 함의를 검토하고자 한다. 둘째, 한반도 신뢰 프로세스의 핵심 내용과 목표, 성공 조건 등을 중국 요인과 결부시켜 분석하고자 한다. 셋째, 한중 전략적 협력의 강화와 한반도 신뢰 프로세스의 긍정적 성과가 선순환적으로 상호작용하기 위한 조건을 한중 전략대화의 내실화, 대북정책 공조 등으로 구분하여 분석하고자 한다. 결론적으로 한중 전략적 협력의 강화는 한반도 신뢰프로세스 추진 과정에 유용한 동력을 제공할 수 있을 것이다. 그러나 한중 전략적 협력이 구조적 한계를 안고 있고 한반도 신뢰프로세스 역시 집권 초기의 기대와 이상에 경사된 측면이 있다. 따라서 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위한 한중 양국의 대내외적 노력과 한반도 관련 이해 당사국들의 긍정적 반응 여부가 한중 전략적 협력의 수준, 한반도 신뢰프로세스의 실질적 성과를 결정하게 하게 될 것이다.