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Rahnuma Bintae Rashid Urmi,Al-Mamun,Dong-Ho Jang 건국대학교 기후연구소 2021 기후연구 Vol.16 No.1
This study was undertaken to find out national level changes in area, production and yield of two major staple crops wheat and potato in Bangladesh. The time series of secondary data was collected from yearbook of agricultural statistics under Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and used for the statistical analysis during the thirty-year period of 1989/90-2018/19. Moreover, selected data were divided into two groups and regarded as segment (1989/90-2003/04, 2005/06-2018/19) to examine the significant level in each crop. The results of different statistical techniques showed that wheat cultivated area and production were satisfactory level but yield was not too much standard in context of country demand. In the case of potato, yield as well as cultivated area and production were crossed the significant level and fulfilled the demand of population. In recent few years, the ratio of potato production rapidly increased, compared with the cultivation area. Based on segment (period) analysis, at the first half wheat production was always below, compared with the area but second half nine years saw slightly improved. On the other hand, in both segment potato growth rate in area, production and yield were increased throughout the study period. The highest instability was also shown in area, production and yield of potato during whole as well as segmented period. There was always a positive relationship between country’s demand and supply. Both wheat and potato are considered as staple crops and based on the productive capability over cultivated area, potato showed the higher productivity for the country of Bangladesh. In consequences, potato consuming demand also rapidly increased all over the country, compared with past respectively.
로지스틱 회귀분석모델을 활용한 평창군 진부 지역의 산사태 재해의 인명 위험 평가
라하누마빈테라시드우르미 ( Rahnuma Bintae Rashid Urmi ),알-마문 ( Al-mamun ),장동호 ( Jang Dong-ho ) 한국지형학회 2020 한국지형학회지 Vol.27 No.2
This paper deals with risk assessment of life in a landslide-prone area by a GIS-based modeling method. Landslide susceptibility maps can provide a probability of landslide prone areas to mitigate or proper control this problems and to take any development plan and disaster management. A landslide inventory map of the study area was prepared based on past historical information and aerial photography analysis. A total of 550 landslides have been counted at the whole study area. The extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two different groups, 50% of the landslides were used for model calibration and the other were used for validation purpose. Eleven causative factors (continuous and thematic) such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in hazard analysis. The correlation between landslides and these factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. Eventually, a landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a logistic regression model based on entire events. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract a success rate curve. Based on the results, logistic regression produced an 85.18% accuracy, so we believed that the model was reliable and acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis on the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, vulnerability scale were added for social thematic data layer. The study area predictive landslide affected pixels 2,000 and 5,000 were also calculated for making a probability table. In final calculation, the 2,000 predictive landslide affected pixels were assumed to run. The total population causalities were estimated as 7.75 person that was relatively close to the actual number published in Korean Annual Disaster Report, 2006.