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Modeling Chagas Disease at Population Level to Explain Venezuela’s Real Data
Gilberto Gonza´lez-Parra,Benito M. Chen-Charpentier,Moises Bermu´dez 질병관리본부 2015 Osong Public Health and Research Persptectives Vol.6 No.5
Objectives: In this paper we present an age-structured epidemiological model for Chagas disease. This model includes the interactions between human and vector populations that transmit Chagas disease. Methods: The human population is divided into age groups since the proportion of infected individuals in this population changes with age as shown by real prevalence data. Moreover, the age-structured model allows more accurate information regarding the prevalence, which can help to design more specific control programs. We apply this proposed model to data from the country of Venezuela for two periods, 1961-1971, and 1961-1991 taking into account real demographic data for these periods. Results: Numerical computer simulations are presented to show the suitability of the age-structured model to explain the real data regarding prevalence of Chagas disease in each of the age groups. In addition, a numerical simulation varying the death rate of the vector is done to illustrate prevention and control strategies against Chagas disease. Conclusion: The proposed model can be used to determine the effect of control strategies in different age groups.
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