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The Security Environment on the Korean Peninsula: A Canadian Perspective on the Prospects for Peace
( David B. Dewitt ) 한국국방연구원 1997 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.9 No.1
While providing the reader with an introduction to recent Canadian policy and an initial discussion and assessment of the post-Cold War context within which security politics of the Korean Peninsula have evolved, this article focuses on three main points. First, an argument is made that borrowing from Y. Dror`s concept of the "crazy state," one can better understand the position and motivations of the North Korean leadership with regard to Northeast Asian security politics. Second, borrowing from Axelrod, A. Stein, and others who have written about cooperation and uncertainty, one can better appreciate the range of options available to both South and North Korea if what is wanted is really peace. Moreover, bringing this into the context of dealing with a "crazy state" should lead the other principal regional actors along with other interested parties to better calculate their roles and responsibilities on the Korean peninsula. KEDO might be an interesting early example of this. Third, in light of the preceding analyses, peace and stability on the peninsula is likely to be enhanced by concentrating on ensuring that both South and North Korea are fully and effectively integrated into the international community as separate and sovereign states. The recent development of new sets of bilateral relations within Northeast Asia, along with the reaffirmation of the United States` commitment to its traditional Northeast Asian allies, all of which tend to strengthen South Korea`s position, need to be complemented by establishing a regularized pattern of regional security dialogues and policy forums. These must be inclusive along the lines of a cooperative security agenda to ensure North Korean participation-even more important today given the DPRK`s increased isolation from its former Cold War partners. The North-South corollary of this is that while unification may be a long term political goal, it should no longer be formally and aggressively pursued by the two Korean governments. Unification should not, and probably cannot, be a prerequisite for peace, stability, and prosperity on the Korean peninsula. South Korea as well as others must balance a policy of strength and commitment to the peace of the region with being prepared to engage Pyongyang in a manner that will in time change the DPRK`s calculation of interests and options.
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