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Dawson II, Daniel T.,Wicker, Louis J.,Mansell, Edward R.,Jung, Youngsun,Xue, Ming Hindawi Limited 2013 Advances in meteorology Vol.2013 No.-
<P>The impact of increasing the number of predicted moments in a multimoment bulk microphysics scheme is investigated using ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of the May 8, 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic supercell storm and the analyses are validated using dual-polarization radar observations. The triple-moment version of the microphysics scheme exhibits the best performance, relative to the single- and double-moment versions, in reproducing the low-<SUB>ZDR</SUB>hail core and high-<SUB>ZDR</SUB>arc, as well as an improved probabilistic track forecast of the mesocyclone. A comparison of the impact of the improved microphysical scheme on probabilistic forecasts of the mesocyclone track with the observed tornado track is also discussed.</P>