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Sohn, Soo‐,Jin,Tam, Chi‐,Yung,Ahn, Joong‐,Bae John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2013 International journal of climatology Vol.33 No.4
<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>An experimental, district‐level system was developed to forecast droughts and floods over South Korea to properly represent local precipitation extremes. The system is based on the Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) multimodel ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction products. Three‐month lead precipitation forecasts for 60 stations in South Korea for the season of March to May are first obtained from the coarse‐scale MME prediction using statistical downscaling. Owing to the relatively small variance of the MME and regression‐based downscaling outputs, the downscaled MME (DMME) products need to be subsequently inflated. The final station‐scale precipitation predictions are then used to produce drought and flood forecasts on the basis of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).</P><P>The performance of three different inflation schemes was also assessed. Of these three schemes, the method that simply rescales the variance of predicted rainfall to that based on climate records, irrespective of the prediction skill or the DMME variance itself at a particular station, gives the best overall improvement in the SPI predictions. However, systematic biases in the prediction system cannot be removed by variance inflation. This implies that DMME techniques must be further improved to correct the bias in extreme drought/flood predictions. Overall, it is seen that DMME, in conjunction with variance inflation, can predict hydrological extremes with reasonable skill. Our results could inform the development of a reliable early warning system for droughts and floods, which is invaluable to policy makers and stakeholders in agricultural and water management sectors, and so forth and is important for mitigation and adaptation measures. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society</P>
Sohn, Soo‐,Jin,Tam, Chi‐,Yung,Ashok, Karumuri,Ahn, Joong‐,Bae John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2012 International journal of climatology Vol.32 No.10
<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>Early detection of extreme drought and flood events either over the whole globe or a broad geographical region, and timely dissemination of this information, is indispensable for mitigation and disaster preparedness. Recently, the APEC Climate Center (APCC) has launched a global precipitation variation monitoring product based on the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System‐Outgoing Longwave Radiation Precipitation Index (CAMS‐OPI) data. Here we quantify the reliability of CAMS‐OPI, as well as other gauge‐satellite‐merged and reanalysis precipitation datasets, for the purpose of monitoring large‐scale precipitation variability in East Asia. The ground truth is the newly available gauge‐based data from the project titled ‘Asian Precipitation—Highly‐Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) of the Water Resources’. It is found that the seasonal‐to‐interannual rainfall deficit and surplus given by various reanalysis systems sometimes do not match the spatial patterns seen in the APHRODITE data. Moreover, maps showing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) become less and less reliable as the time scale based on which values are calculated increases. In contrast, the performance of gauge‐satellite‐based rainfall datasets is satisfactory and the quality of SPI maps does not decay as the time scale increases. Overall, CAMS‐OPI is found to be reliable for monitoring large‐scale precipitation variations over the East Asian sector. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society</P>