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Risk assessment of the Cropland Conversion Program in western China
Zhi Ling,Xu Huili,Liu Yan,Cai Jiangfa 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2009 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 학술대회 Vol.2009 No.10
To asses the risks of a large scale cropland conversion program in western China, an indicator system including 4 risk types, (Farmer livelihood risk, program policy risk, ecological risk and market risk) was established. Zhijin County in Guizhou Province was used as a case study, in which the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assess the risks of the implementation of the cropland coversion program in the county. The results indicated that the risk of cropland conversion program is small. Among the 4 risk types, policy risk was the most threatening, while market risk was small. Based on an analysis of social variables of the program risks, some countermeasures are proposed for risk management of the cropland conversion program.