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- 저자 : 조만석(Manseok Jo) (검색결과 2 건)
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정기철(Gicheol Jeong),김승현(SeungHyun Kim),조만석(Manseok Jo),이기헌(Keeheon Lee),김가은(Gaeun Kim) 과학기술정책연구원 2016 정책연구 Vol.- No.-
This study suggests a methodology that analyzes the effects of policy tools designed to support the expansion of innovative products/services by incorporating both purchase and diffusion stages. The study conducted an empirical analysis on direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic test to verify the usefulness of the suggested methodology. First, the study conducted a survey on DTC genetic test services in order to obtain data required for analysis. As a result, we found that consumers are interested in health management practices that can predict or pre-diagnose a genetic disorder and give timely treatments, and are willing to try new medical technologies. Furthermore, we found that consumers are sharing information on their health status with others and making a considerable impact on the decision-making process of others. Analysis of the purchase stage begins with consumers’ preference analysis about factors that they value when using DTC genetic test services. The study established test price, number of testable items, test accuracy, and possibility of private information leakage as determinants of consumers’ purchase, and selection data were estimated based on discrete choice model. As a result, the study found that, all other things being equal, consumers prefer tests that are relatively cheap, more testable items, offer accurate results, and involve a lower risk of the possibility of leaking private information. Next, the present status as well as possible future policy options was reflected in developing virtual policy scenarios for analyzing each policy scenario. With Scenario 0 as the base and representing the current conditions, the study drew up other scenarios by reflecting on multiple policy options that could be pursued in the future. Policy measures that could be used to expand DTC genetic test services were grouped into four categories: price reduction via insurance coverage (change in price attribute), increase in testable items (change in testable item attribute), tougher regulation on test agencies’ service quality (change in test accuracy attribute), and greater protection of information (change in possibility of leaking private information attribute). Four different policy tools were applied from Scenario 1 to 4, whereas Scenarios 5 to 10 implemented two of the four policy tools combined. Based on this, the study investigated the diffusion of DTC genetic test service according to each policy scenario by using two different agent-based models (ABMs). To reflect the static structure of consumer preference, which was analyzed in the purchase stage, in the dynamic ABM, assumptions should be established regarding the reflection of consumer preference structure and the composition of networks. Since ABMs in various forms can be applied according to such assumptions, this study adopted two different ABMs. Analysis of the diffusion path of each policy scenario generated common results, regardless of the ABMs. Cumulative rates of adopting DTC genetic test services in Scenario 5 to 10, where two policy tools are applied, is higher than those in Scenario 1 to 4, where only a single policy tool is applied. In particular, Scenario 5, where policies for quality enhancement of test agencies and health insurance coverage are implemented simultaneously, presented the highest cumulative adoption rate and the fastest expansion route than in other scenarios. This implies that the policy measures both for price reduction with a wider range of health insurance coverage and for delivery of accurate test findings based on enhanced service quality of test agencies would further accelerate expansion of DTC genetic analysis services. The study has two meanings: 1) to develop a methodology that can make an ex-ante forecast for the effects of a support policy that is adopted to facilitate market expansion of an innovative product/service; 2) to investigate the support policy measures that are currently in place f
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