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인구고령화가 식음료 산업의 소비지출에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석
정욱영 ( Jeong Ug-yeong ),최영진 ( Choi Young-jin ) 한국호텔리조트학회(구 한국호텔리조트카지노산학학회) 2020 호텔리조트연구 Vol.19 No.6
This paper investigates the impacts of population aging on the food and beverage consumption expenditure using auto-regressive distributed lag(ADL) regression model. By estimating food and beverage consumption function introducing population aging variable, elasticities of age-specific disposable income, relative price, and interest rate were derived and the effects of population aging on food and beverage consumption were analyzed using quarterly data in 1990 to 2016. Income elasticities were shown to be the biggest value 0.62 in the forties, 0.52 in the lower thirties, 0.51 in the fifties and the smallest one of 0.41 in the upper sixties. These results implies acceleration of population aging will affects as a declining factor to the food and beverage industry. Price elasticities were found to be the most responsive value of -0.58 in the fifties and the least responsive one of -0.39 in the forties. The lower thirties and the upper sixties showed -0.49 and -0.44 respectively. Interest rate elasticity estimate, household on average, showed 0.04 which means negligible effects on the food and beverage consumption. Population aging affects food and beverage consumption as an U-shape. The critical value of changing consumption patterns is 0.29 in the population aging index. Deepening population aging will function as a positive impacts to food and beverage industry.In the seasonal effects, summer shows the highest while winter does the lowest. With accelerating population aging, this study could be a reference paper in designing policy in the food and beverage industry.
강릉단오제 방문객의 만족도 및 재방문의사 결정요인 분석
정욱영(Ug Yeong Jeong),지계웅(Ke Yung Ji),한진영(Jin Young Han) 한국관광연구학회 2015 관광연구저널 Vol.29 No.6
Recently in order to stimulate the stagnant regional economy, the local governments support strongly to hold diverse and differentiated local festival competitively. Even though Gangneung Dano is the biggest nationwide cultural festival, tourist behavior researches on the Dano festival is very poor. This paper analyzes determinants of festival participants’ satisfaction and revisit intention in the case of 2013 Gangneung Dano, based on factor analysis and logit regression model. 14 determinants of satisfaction and revisit intention such as demographic and satisfaction factors are set as explanatory variables. Three types of dependent variables such as satisfaction level, revisit intention, and recommendation intention are investigated. Main findings are the followings. First, three variables such as festival environments, festival experience services, and festival programs are categorized as factors of subjective satisfaction level. Second, metropolitan area, family accompanying, participation days positively but male and own expense lodging negatively influence satisfaction. Festival environmental factor shows positive effect on satisfaction. Third, participation days, staying days, and family accompanying positively but male and own expense lodging negatively influence revisit intention. Festival environment and program factors show positive effect on revisit intention. Fourth, while participation days shows positive but male and own expense lodging show negative effect on recommendation intention. Festival environment and program factors also influence positively recommendation intention like revisit intention. Main findings of this paper suggest invention of diverse festival programs, enhancement in group tourist services and general festival environments such as lodging, shopping, and price level are necessary to develop Dano festival. This paper analyzed comprehensively both subjective tourist satisfaction factors and objective tourist characteristics such as age, marital state, and residence. These results can be applied for the Gangneung local government and tour industries to invent and implement efficient marketing strategies such as market segmentation.
정욱영 ( Jeong Ug-yeong ),한진영 ( Han Jin-young ) 한국호텔리조트학회 2021 호텔리조트연구 Vol.20 No.6
This paper investigates food and beverage and alcohol drinks consumption function using auto-regressive distributed lag(ADL) regression model using quarterly data from 1990 to 2020. Elasticities of age-specific disposable income, relative price, interest rate, and population aging index were estimated and the effects of population aging on beverage and alcohol drinks consumption were analyzed. Income elasticities were the biggest value of 0.77 in the fifties, 0.66 in the forties, 0.64 in the upper sixties and the smallest one of 0.61 in lower thirties. Price elasticities were found to be the most responsive value of -1.67 in the fifties and the least responsive one of -0.46 in lower thirties. The forties and the upper sixties showed -0.69 and -1.60 respectively. Interest rate elasticity, household on average, showed -0.13 which means interest affect beverage and alcohol drinks consumption as an opposite direction. Population aging elasticity was estimated be -0.11 which indicates 1% increment in population index will result in 0.11% decrease of beverage and alcohol drinks consumption. This result implies deepening in population aging will influence beverage and alcohol drinks industries as a negative factor. As seasonal impacts, summer shows the largest while fall does the smallest in beverage and alcohol drinks consumption. Facing with accelerating population aging, this paper could be a reference study in designing beverage and alcohol drinks industry policy.
2012 강릉ICCN세계무형문화축전의 경제파급효과 연구
김영표(Young Pyo Kim),정욱영(Ug Yeong Jeong) 한국관광연구학회 2013 관광연구저널 Vol.27 No.3
This paper analyzes the economic effects of 2012 ICCN Gangneung Festival, using 2005 regional input -output table published by the Bank of Korea. Economic impacts are estimated by tourists` consumption and local government`s expenditures, internal and external region effects. To assume the number of tourists`, 10 field surveyors were deployed during the festival. Main findings are the followings. First, tourists` consumption is 17 billion won in total. Second, total effects of expenditure on the whole region are 28.5 billion won in production, 14 billion won in value -added, 4.6 billion won in income, and 399 persons in employment respectively. These results support a strong evidence on 2012 ICCN Festival`s big contributions to both Gangneung and other local economies.
강주훈 ( Joo Hoon Kang ),정욱영 ( Ug Yeong Jeong ) 한국경제학회 2001 經濟學硏究 Vol.49 No.4
There have been two problems in determining the absolute level of industrial markup. First, most of studies in estimating industrial markups did not consider foreign intermediate goods and imported materials. This paper, however, estimated industrial markups in manufacturing including foreign and domestic intermediate goods separately. Secondly, by using both indexes and actual values of factor prices at the same time, there are also considerable biases for estimating absolute markups. In order to avoid the bias tendency from factor prices, this paper set up new empirical markup model incorporating factor share, technical coefficients, and factors productivity and estimated 18 industrial markups in Korea. The empirical results show first that industrial markups in Korean manufacturing industries have tendency of small variations around the average markup reflecting nearly complete pass-through of cost change to price. Second, foreign intermediate good prices are found to be more countercyclical than domestic ones in most of industries. Thus, foreign intermediate good prices are shown to be important factor in determining industrial markup and in explaining business cycle in Korea.