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손영갑(Young Kap Son) 대한기계학회 2008 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2008 No.10
This paper represents storage reliability estimation methods. Failure time data used in reliability estimation of one-shot systems is quantal-response data. Quantal-response data is different from commercial products' failure time data, and it follows binomial distributions. Both non-parametric estimation methods and parametric estimation ones are introduced, and their merits and demerits are presented in this paper. These reliability estimation methods are applicable to estimate storage reliability of ammunitions and missiles in long-term storage.
계수와 계량 혼합형 데이터의 특성을 가지는 감도에 대한 가속열화데이터를 이용한 저장 신뢰도 추정
손영갑(Young Kap Son) 대한기계학회 2021 大韓機械學會論文集A Vol.45 No.11
본 논문은 일련의 시점에서 감도 시험을 수행하여 확보한 감도에 대한 가속열화데이터를 이용하여 저장 신뢰도를 추정하는 방법을 제안한다. 감도 데이터는 자극의 수준에 대한 계량형 데이터와 자극에 대한 성공/실패 수로 표현되는 계수형 데이터가 혼합된 데이터이다. 한 시점에서의 감도 데이터로부터 반폭점을 추정하는 연구가 대부분 수행되고 있지만 감도에 대한 열화데이터로부터 신뢰도를 추정하는 연구는 미진하고 보수적인 활성화에너지값을 사용하여 저장온도에서의 저장기간에 따른 반폭점을 추정하는 연구가 수행되었다. 제안한 방법은 한 시점에서의 감도 데이터를 이용하여 반폭점을 추정하는 Neyer test를 확장한 방법으로 감도에 대한 열화데이터로부터 활성화에너지 값을 추정하고 반폭점을 포함하여 저장 신뢰도를 추정할 수 있는 방법이다. MCS 방법을 이용하여 감도 데이터를 모사하고 제안하는 방법의 적용가능성을 검증하였다. This paper proposes a storage reliability estimation method using accelerated degradation data obtained via sensitivity tests. Sensitivity data are the mixed data with quantitative variables for stimulus and attribute ones for the number of success or failure according to the stimulus. Few studies have been conducted to estimate the storage reliability using the degradation data of sensitivity over time, although the estimation of mean exploding point using sensitivity data at a single time point has been mainly studied. In these studies, mean exploding points for storage temperature over time have been estimated using a conservative value of the activation energy. The proposed method extends the Neyer test that is used to estimate mean exploding point using sensitivity data at a single time point, and it is capable of directly estimating the storage reliability and mean exploding point, including the activation energy from the accelerated degradation data of sensitivity. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method was used to simulate a series of sensitivity data over time, and the applicability of the proposed method was verified.
손영갑(Young Kap Son),류장희(Jang-Hee Ryu),김재중(Jae-Jung Kim) 대한기계학회 2009 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2009 No.11
This paper proposes a derating design method for system reliability improvement using a probabilistic approach. The proposed design approach tries to select derated levels of stresses such as temperature and current in system level unlike recent design approaches focusing on component levels. System reliability is evaluated using component reliability metrics given as functions of uncertain stresses and time, based on a series system reliability model. Variation in stress, not considered in previous derating designs, is introduced to consider uncertain both environmental and operating conditions at customers’ hands in the field. Optimization problems for system reliability improvement are formulated and solved using FORM to find the best derating design. An electrical system comprising four components shows the details of the design method and the potential of the approach.
손영갑(Young Kap Son) 대한기계학회 2010 大韓機械學會論文集A Vol.34 No.6
본 논문은 시스템 신뢰성 향상을 위한 확률적 접근을 이용한 부하경감설계방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 설계방법은 부품 수준이 아닌 시스템 수준에서 온도와 전류와 같은 스트레스의 경감 수준을 선정하는 것이다. 직렬 시스템의 신뢰도 모델을 이용하여, 스트레스와 시간의 함수로 주어진 부품들의 신뢰도값들을 이용하여 시스템 신뢰도를 평가한다. 기존의 부하경감설계에서는 고려되지 않았지만, 본 연구에서는 환경 및 동작 조건에서 시스템이 받게 되는 스트레스의 변량을 고려하였다. 시스템 신뢰도 향상을 위한 최적화 문제를 정의하고, FORM을 적용하여 해를 구함으로써 최적의 부하경감설계를 수행하였다. 전기 시스템에 대한 설계를 통하여 제안한 설계방법에 대한 자세한 설명과 응용가능성을 제시하였다. This paper proposes a derating design method for improving system reliability by using a probabilistic approach. In the proposed design, the focus is upon system levels in determining derated levels of stresses such as temperature and current, unlike recent design approaches that focus on component levels. System reliability is evaluated using component reliability metrics that are given as functions of time and unknown stresses; this evaluation is based on a series system-reliability model. The variation in stress, which was not considered in previous derating designs, is introduced in the present design to account for the uncertainty in both environmental and operating conditions at the customer' hands. Optimization problems for system reliability improvement are formulated and solved using FORM to determine the best derating design. An example of a derating design for an electrical system shows the details of the proposed method and its applicability to systems design for reliability improvement.
계수형 데이터에 대한 신뢰도 추정방법의 샘플 수와 샘플링 시점 수에 따른 민감도 분석
손영갑(Son, Young-Kap),류장희(Ryu, Jang-Hee) 한국산학기술학회 2011 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.12 No.2
계수형 데이터를 이용하여 신뢰도를 추정하는 방법은 원자력 설비, 의약품, 우주발사체 등과 같은 다양한 시 스템의 신뢰도 평가에 사용되고 있다. 본 논문은 모수 추정법을 포함하여 문헌에 공개된 신뢰도 추정방법에 대한 샘 플 수 및 샘플링 시점 수 변화에 대한 정확성의 민감도를 분석하고 비교한 결과를 제시한다. 또한 민감도 분석 결과 를 이용하여 각 추정 방법의 정확성을 향상시키기 위한 방안을 제시하였다. Reliability estimation methods using attribute data are widely used in reliability evaluation of various systems such as nuclear energy plants, food and drug, and space launch vehicles. This paper shows sensitivity analysis and comparison results of reliability estimation methods including a parametric estimation method in open literature with respect to both sample size and sampling points of time. And ways to improve accuracy of each reliability estimation method were proposed from the sensitivity analysis results.
전륜 및 후륜구동 전기자동차의 기어비에 따른 구동 특징 민감도 비교 분석
손영갑(Young-Kap Son),김정민(Jeong-Min Kim) 한국기계가공학회 2023 한국기계가공학회지 Vol.22 No.3
This study shows the comparative analysis results of driving characteristic sensitivity according to different gear ratios for front- and rear-wheel drive electric vehicles. These driving characteristics include acceleration performance, maximum velocity, urban driving energy consumption, and highway driving energy consumption. The electric vehicle model proposed by the authors in the literature was implemented to simulate these driving characteristics for different gear ratios, and the normalized sensitivity values were then evaluated. The sensitivity analysis results show that the maximum velocity was mostly affected by the changes in the gear ratio of the front-wheel drive electric vehicle. However, the acceleration performance was mostly affected by the changes in the gear ratio of the rear-wheel drive electric vehicle. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, selecting the gear ratio suitable for the driving characteristics should be considered when designing the gear ratios for front- and rear-wheel drive electric vehicles.
가속수명시험을 이용한 원샷 시스템의 신뢰도 추정방법 비교
손영갑(Young Kap Son),장현정(Hyun Jung Jang) 대한산업공학회 2010 대한산업공학회지 Vol.36 No.4
This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems with respect to sample sizes. To compare accuracy in reliability estimation methods, quantal-response data, characterizing one-shot systems, were simulated using failure times of LED obtained through the accelerated life test, and then the true reliability over time was evaluated using the failure times. The simulated quantal-response data were used to estimate the true reliability through applying reliability estimation methods in open literature. Accuracy of each reliability estimation method was compared in terms of both SSE (Sum of Squared Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error), and then estimation trend for each method is found. Feasible bounds which true reliability would exist within were estimated through applying the found trends to quantal-response data set of a real weapon system.