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MCS를 이용한 고수위 수위-유량관계곡선의 연장에 관한 연구
문영일,김종석,윤선권,Moon. Young-Il,Kim. Jong-Suk,Yoon. Sun-Kwon 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
Flood damage has been increased due to the abnormal climate and extreme rainfall. So, quantitative and qualitative hydrologic data should be improved in oder to enhance accuracy of hydrologic forecast. However, research regarding hydrologic data have not been thorough enough. Therefore, in this study, monte carlo simulation was applied to rainfall runoff model to improve the reliability of runoff analysis and risk analysis. Rainfall-Stage-Discharge curve was developed as a consequence of MCS and it is possible to get correct rating curve for high water level.
문영일,권현한,Moon. Young-Il,Kwon. Hyun-Han 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
최근 연구에 의하면 기상 등의 외부적 요인이 수문학적 빈도를 변화시킨다고 알려지고 있다. 그러나 전통적인 수문학적 빈도해석은 자료의 정상성을 전제로 하기 때문에 어떤 외부인자의 따른 영향을 고려할 수 없다. 본 연구에서는 비정상성 빈도해석 모형의 기본 개념 및 절차에 대해서 살펴보았고 이를 국내 자료에 대해서 적용 검토하였다. 본 연구에서는 계층적 Bayesian 방법을 이용하여 한국에서 극치사상의 영향을 미치는 다양한 영향 인자를 평가하였다. 해수면온도, 예측 GCM 강수량 및 기상인자를 잠재적인 영향인자로 고려하였다. 수문위험도 분석에 관련된 매개변수는 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) 방법을 이용하였다. 각 예측 인자의 적합성 및 중요성은 각 예측인자와 관련된 매개변수의 사후분포를 이용하여 검토 평가하였다.
분단위 강우자료를 활용한 임의-고정시간 환산계수의 추정
문영일,오태석,오근택,전시영,Moon. Young-Il,Oh. Tae-Suk,Oh. Kun-Taek,Jun. Si-Young 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
Probability precipitation is one of the most important factor for designing the hydrology structures. Probability precipitation is calculated based on the frequency analysis on each durations of annual maximum rainfall data. For frequency analysis we need a conversion factor between the rain data per random-time interval and fixed-time-interval. In this study, the minutely precipitation data on observatory of the Meteorological Administration are used for 37 stations. Therefore, we should conversion factors between the rain data per minute and fixed-time-interval.
결정론적 홍수위 추적 모형을 이용한 우이천 유역의 홍수범람도 작성
문영일,윤선권,김재현,안재현,Moon. Young-Il,Yoon. Sun-Kwon,Kim. Jae-Hyun,Ahn. Jae-Hyun 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
Flood control and river improvement works are carried out every year for the defense of the flood disaster, it is impossible to avoid the damage when there is a flood exceeding the capacity of hydraulic structures. Therefore, nonstructural counter plans such as the establishment of flood hazard maps, the flood warning systems are essential with structural counter plans. In this study, analysis of the internal inundation effect using rainfall runoff model such as PC-SWMM was applied to Woo Ee experimental stream basin. Also, the design frequency analysis for effects of the external inundation was accomplished by main parameter estimation for conclusive hydraulic routing using HEC-RAS model. Finally, inundated areas for flood hazard map were estimated at Woo Ee downstream basin according to flood frequency using HEC-GeoRAS model linked by Arc View GIS.
비동질성 Markov 모형에 의한 시간강수량 모의발생을 이용한 IDF 곡선의 유도
문영일,최병규,오태석,Moon,Young-Il,Choi,Byung-Kyu,Oh,Tae-Suk 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
A non-homogeneous markov model which is able to simulate hourly rainfall series is developed for estimating reliable hydrological variables. The proposed approach is applied to simulate hourly rainfall series in Korea. The simulated rainfall is used to estimate the design rainfall and compared to observations in terms of reproducing underlying distributions of the data to assure model`s validation. The model shows that the simulated rainfall series reproduce a similar statistical attribute with observations, and expecially maximum value is gradually increased as number of simulation increase.
문영일,오태석,신동준,Moon. Young-Il,Oh. Tae-Suk,Shin. Dong-Jun 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
The typhoon is provoking huge damage attacking in Korea periodically every year. Therefore, in this study, the analysis of 24 hourly maximum precipitation change related to typhoon events achieved based on Mann-Whitney U test, T test, Modified T test, Sign test, F test, and Modified F test. At the results, the 24 hourly maximum precipitation was expose that average and standard deviation are increasing recently. Therefore, hydorlogical structures have to be prepared of extreme rainfall events by typhoons.
문영일,권현한,Moon,Young-Il,Kwon,Hyun-Han 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established, uncertainty analysis, therefore, are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an expected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.
우이천 유역의 횡단 월류형 구조물 철거에 의한 수리영향 분석
문영일,윤선권,전시영,김종석,Moon. Young-Il,Yoon. Sun-Kwon,Chun. Si-Young,Kim. Jong-Suk 한국방재학회 2008 한국방재학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.1
Currently, Stream flow analysis has been accomplished by one or two dimensional equations and was applied by simple momentum equations and fixed energy conservations which contain many reach uppermost limit. In this study, FLOW-3D using CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) was applied to stream flow analysis which can solve three dimensional RANS(Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Equation) control equation to find out physical behavior and the effect of hydraulic structures. Numerical simulation accomplished those results was compared by using turbulence models such as <TEX>$k-\varepsilon$</TEX>, RNG(Renomalized Group Theory) <TEX>$k-\varepsilon$</TEX> and LES(Large Eddy Simulation). Numerical analysis results have been illustrated by the turbulence energy effects, velocity of flow, water level pressure and eddy flows around the side overflow type structures at Jangwall bridge in urban stream.