부동산 투자자의 심리요인이 투자성과 및 재투자 의도에 미치는 영향 = Influence of Investor's Psychological Factor in Real Estate Investment on the Performance and Re-investment Intention

국문 초록 (Abstract)

부동산 투자에는 투자로서의 큰 위험성과 큰 이익이라는 양면적인 현상이 내재하고 있다. 이러한 양면적 요소에 주요한 영향을 미치는 것이 바로 부동산에 대한 투자심리이다. 부동산 투자에서 성공하기 위해서는 집단적 투자심리에 좌우되지 않는 합리적 사고가 요구된다.
본 연구는 부동산 투자심리가 투자성과를 매개하여 만족이 재투자 의도에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 위한 실증분석에 그 의의가 있다.
본 연구의 자료수집은 2018년 6월 1일부터 6월 30일까지 부산, 경상남도 지역에 거주하고 있으면서 부동산 투자의 경험이 있는 자를 대상으로 하였다.
연구자가 부동산 투자의 경험이 있는 사람에게 서베이몽키(ko.surveymonkey.com)를 이용하여 전자 설문을 실시하였다.
전자설문 실시 하여 총 468명의 응답이 수집되었으나, 설문이 끝까지 완료되지 않았거나, 불성실한 38부를 제외하고 최종 430부 유효설문지를 통계분석 자료로 이용하였다.
수집된 자료는 코딩과정을 거쳐 IBM SPSS statistics version 25.0 for windows 와 AMOS 25.0을 이용하여 분석하였다.
연구가설 검증을 통한 결과는 다음과 같다.
첫째, 부동산 투자심리가 투자성과에 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설을 분석한 결과 자기확신이 투자성과에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 낙관적 전망, 군중심리, 정보편항, 투자성과는 투자만족 및 성과에 대하여 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다.
둘째, 부동산 투자성과는 만족과 재투자의도에 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설을 분석한 결과 투자성과는 만족과 재투자의도에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
셋째, 모형의 적합도를 높이기 위해 모형을 수정하는 과정 중에 새롭게 추가된 가설 중 만족은 재투자의도에 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설을 분석한 결과 만족은 재투자의도에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
넷째, 모형의 적합도를 높이기 위해 모형을 수정하는 과정 중에 새롭게 추가된 부동산 투자심리 중 낙관적 전망이 투자성과를 매개하지 않고 직접적으로 만족에 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설을 분석한 결과 낙관적 전망은 만족에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미쳤다.
다섯째, 역시 모형의 적합도를 높이기 위해 모형을 수정하는 과정 중에 새롭게 추가된 부동산 투자심리 중 낙관적 전망과 군중심리는 투자성과를 매개하지 않고 직접적으로 재투자의도에 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설을 분석한 결과 낙관적 전망과 군중심리는 재투자의도에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미쳤다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The real estate investment, which may return a significant profit, has the flip side of having a higher risk, as well. And, the major factor that influence these two contradicting aspects of real estate investment is the investment sentiment. In order to be successful in an real-estate investment project, one needs to have a rational mind that is not swayed by the collective investment sentiment of the majority.
The purpose of this study is to conduct an empirical analysis on the influence of real-estate investment sentiment on satisfaction and re-investment intents by mediating the investment performances.
The data for this study was gathered from individuals with real-estate investment experiences living in Busan and Gyeongnam region, over the period from June 1 through June 30, 2018.
For this, the author used Survey Monkey (ko.surveymonkey.com) to conduct this electronic survey with individuals with real-estate investment experiences.
As a result of this electronic survey, a total of 486 questionnaires were recovered. From this, excluding 38 incomplete or unreliable replies, a total of 430 valid questionnaires were fed in as the data for the statistical analysis.
The data collected was analyzed after coding through IBM SPSS statistics version 25.0 for Windows and AMOS 25.0.
The result of verification of the hypotheses of this study is as follows;
First, the result of analysis on the hypothesis that the real-estate investment sentiment would affect the investment performance showed that the self-conviction affected the investment performances. Optimistic expectations, group sentiments, information bias, and investment performance did not affect investment satisfaction and performance in a statistically significant manner.
Second, the result of analysis on the hypothesis that the real-estate investment performance would affect satisfaction and re-investment intents showed that the investment performance affected satisfaction and re-investment intents.
Third, of the hypotheses that were added during the process of enhancing the models to have a better fit, the analysis of the hypothesis that satisfaction would affect the re-investment intent showed that satisfaction affected re-investment intents in a statistically significant manner.
Fourth, the result of the analysis of the hypothesis that the optimistic expectations, which is one of the factors of the investment sentiments, would not mediate the investment performances but influence satisfaction directly, which was added during the process of adjusting the model to have a better fit, showed that an optimistic expectation affected satisfaction significantly.
Fifth, the result of the analysis of the hypothesis that the optimistic expectations and group sentiment that were the factors of the investment sentiments, would not mediate the investment performances but influence re-investment intent directly, which was added during the process of adjusting the model to have a better fit, showed that an optimistic expectation and group sentiment affected re-investment intents significantly.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론 ························································································································1
• 1. 연구의 배경 및 목적·······················································································1
• 2. 연구방법과 연구구성·······················································································5
• 1) 연구방법 ·······································································································5
• 2) 연구구성 ·····································································································11
• Ⅱ. 이론적 배경 및 선행연구 ··············································································14
• 1. 부동산 시장·····································································································14
• 1) 부동산 시장의 개념···················································································14
• 2) 부동산 시장의 기능 및 특성 ···································································15
• 3) 부동산 시장의 변화···················································································22
• 4) 부동산 시장의 효율성 ···············································································26
• 2. 부동산 투자·····································································································30
• 1) 부동산 투자의 개념···················································································30
• 2) 부동산 투자의 위험···················································································33
• 3) 부동산 투자의 의사결정···········································································37
• 3. 부동산 투자심리 ·····························································································39
• 1) 낙관적 전망 ·································································································40
• 2) 자기 확신·····································································································41
• 3) 군중심리 ·······································································································43
• 4) 정보편향 ·······································································································45
• 5) 수익확신 ·······································································································48
• 4. 부동산 투자성과 ·····························································································48
• 5. 만족 및 재투자의도 ·······················································································49
• 1) 만족···············································································································49
• 2) 재투자 의도 ·································································································52
• 6. 선행연구···········································································································54
• 1) 부동산 투자심리와 투자성과 ···································································54
• 2) 투자성과와 만족 및 재투자 의도···························································57
• III. 연구 설계 ···········································································································60
• 1. 연구 모형 ·········································································································60
• 2. 연구 가설 ·········································································································61
• 1) 부동산 투자심리와 투자성과 ···································································61
• 2) 투자성과와 만족, 재투자의도 ································································62
• 3) 만족과 재투자의도 ·····················································································62
• 4) 부동산 투자심리와 만족···········································································62
• 5) 부동산 투자심리와 재투자의도·······························································62
• 3. 조사의 설계·····································································································64
• 4. 연구 도구 ·········································································································64
• 1) 부동산 투자 심리·······················································································64
• 2) 투자성과 ·······································································································65
• 3) 만족, 재투자 의도 ······················································································65
• 5. 자료 분석 방법·······························································································66
• IV. 실증분석결과 ·····································································································67
• 1. 연구대상자의 일반적 특성 ···········································································67
• 2. 가설검증을 위한 예비분석 ···········································································69
• 1) 주요변수의 기술적 통계 분석·································································69
• 2) 측정도구의 탐색적 요인분석 ···································································71
• 3) 측정도구의 확인적 요인분석과 타당성, 신뢰도 검사························73
• 3. 경로분석 가설검증·························································································80
• 1) 연구 모형의 적합도 분석 ·········································································80
• 2) 가설검증 및 분석결과 ···············································································81
• Ⅴ. 결론 ····················································································································88
• 1. 연구결과의 요약 ·····························································································88
• 2. 연구결과의 시사점·························································································89
• 3. 연구의 한계점 및 향후 연구방향 ·······························································91
• 참고문헌 ·····················································································································93
• Abstract ····················································································································99
• 설문조사 ···················································································································102

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