주택시장의 정책변화가 주택가격변동에 미치는 영향분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to deduct the political implication through the positive analysis of housing market and macroeconomic variables. The scope of time is from 1987 to 2013 and the scope of space is Korea. As the index of housing market, housing transaction price index(hereafter, cell index), price index of lease(hereafter, lease index), and price index of monthly rent(hereafter, rent index) were used. As the macroeconomic variables, the real gross domestic product(GDP), employment rate(ER), housing fund loan(HL), house construction investment(HCI), corporate bond(CB), and gross fixed capital formation(GFC) were used. As the positive analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis using vector auto regression(VAR) model.
Results of Granger causality test are as follows. At First, there are mutual Granger causality between transaction index and lease index, and between lease index and rent index for all the period. And between rent index and transaction index, there is no Granger causality each other. Second, cell index has causality to GDP, ER and HL. Third, lease index has causality to GDP and ER, and has mutual causality with GFC. Fourth, GFC has causality to rent index.
As the results of impulse response analysis, the response of transaction index to GDP and GFC were positive for all the period and the response to HL, ER and CB were negative. The response of lease index to HL, ER and GFC were diverse and response to HCI were weakly positive. The response of rent index to ER increases in the early period and decays in the latter period. On the other hand, the response to CB, HCI and GFC increase as time passed.
Results of variance decomposition analysis are as follows. At first, the influences of GDP, HL, GFC, HCI and CB to cell index increase as time goes by. Second, HL and CB showed the largest influence to lease index in the early period, but the influence of ER, GFC and HCI become larger in the latter period. Third, ER and CB showed the largest influence to rent index in the early period, but the influence of GDP, GFC and HCI become larger in the latter period.
The main implication of the positive analysis is that the business fluctuations and housing market sensitively react to the house policies and the excessive market intervention of government caused the side effects of policy failure. As the structural change of housing market, house for lease and rent and house of small or middle size need to be more supplied for the stability of working-class residence. The housing policy until now was mainly quantitative housing supply and regulation policies but in the future, the function of housing welfare policy for low incomer in housing lease market need to be reinforced. Therefore, continuous housing supply is needed for the stability of house transaction market and lease market.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 제2절 연구의 범위와 방법 4
• 1. 연구의 범위 및 방법 4
• 2. 연구의 구성 5
• 제2장 주택시장의 변동과 특징 6
• 제1절 주택시장의 변동 분석 6
• 1. 주택매매시장의 변동 6
• 2. 주택전세시장의 변동 11
• 3. 주택월세시장의 변동 15
• 제2절 주택시장의 특징 20
• 1. 주택매매시장의 특징 20
• 2. 주택임대시장의 특징 24
• 3. 주택정책 변화의 제도적 특성 29
• 제3장 주택시장 정책 변화와 가격결정 요인 31
• 제1절 주택시장 변동에 따른 정책변화 31
• 1. 주택시장 성장기 주택 정책 31
• 2. 외환위기와 주택 정책 33
• 3. 글로벌 금융위기와 주택 정책 41
• 제2절 주택시장 가격결정 요인 43
• 1. 선행연구 43
• 2. 주택정책의 결정 요인 55
• 제4장 실증분석 62
• 제1절 주택시장의 특성분석 62
• 1. 분석변수 선택 62
• 2. 통계량과 안정성 65
• 제2절 주택시장의 가격결정 요인의 인과관계분석 68
• 1. 전국 주택매매가격과 전세․월세가격 간의 인과관계 69
• 2. 주택매매가격과 거시경제변수 간의 인과관계 71
• 3. 주택전세가격과 거시경제변수 간의 인과관계 73
• 4. 주택월세가격과 거시경제변수 간의 인과관계 75
• 제3절 벡터자기회귀모형의 분석 78
• 1. 적정시차결정 78
• 2. 공적분 검정 80
• 3. VAR 모형의 추정 82
• 제4절 충격반응분석 및 분산분해분석 89
• 1. 충격반응분석(impulse response test) 89
• 2. 분산분해분석(variance decomposition test) 103
• 제5장 결론 112
• 1. 요약 112
• 2. 시사점과 연구의 한계 116
• 참고문헌 118