자산시장 균형조건에 따른 전세가율의 결정요인

국문 초록 (Abstract)

전세가격과 전세가율 상승에 대한 실물경제 현황을 자산시장의 균형이론를 토대로 분석해 보면, 2002년 당시의 높은 전세가율은 전세, 매매의 수요와 공급요인에 의해 발생한 측면이 높은 반면, 최근의 전세가격 상승은 아파트가 자산으로써 투자재 기능이 저하되면서 자본이득이 발생하지 않을 것으로 판단한 매입 대기 수요자가 전세 실수요자와 함께 전세로 수요를 이동함으로써 전세가격이 지속적으로 상승한 것으로 분석된다. 이는 투기적 매매수요는 감소한 반면 전세의 투기적 동기의 화폐수요는 증가했음을 의미한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Although the sales price maintains downward stability in real estate market particularly in apartment houses in Seoul, Jeonse price shows unusual trend by showing continuous increase since February in 2009. As Jeonse price is not aligned with sales price, Jeonse residents suffer from the price rise. With these backgrounds, this study tried to identify the meaning of Jeonse price rice of apartments in Korea.

129 months for 10 years from January 2002 when the apartment sales price began to rise to September in 2012 were analyzed. For the purpose of this study, ratio of Jeonse to Sales (Jeonse?sales Ratio hereafter) was set as a dependent variable which is frequently used as a related index between Jeonse price and Sales price, and the determinants of Jeonse?sales prices ratio under the condition of asset market equilibrium.
First of all, this study identified basic concepts through literature review on previous studies and a verification model was designed and analyzed based on the extended asset market equilibrium theory. For empirical analysis methods, statistical analysis was utilized in order to analyze determinants of Jeonse?sales prices ratio (=Jeonse price/ Sales price) under the condition of asset market equilibrium. To review and control the variables induced from asset market equilibrium theory model and external factors, governmental housing regulation policies such as LTV and DTI and global financial debacle (external shock effect) were added as independent variables and determinants of Jeonse?Sales prices ratio under the condition of Asset Market Equilibrium in Korea were analyzed.

From the analysis, the relationship between expected sales price increase rate and Jeonse?Sales prices ratio was found to be negative (-), which was consistent with the theory and estimated as statistically significant. Market profit rate showed negative (-) relationship with Jeonse?Sales prices ratio and stock price and positive (+) relationship with bond price, which means Jeonse price is aligned with stable bond profit. Loan attitude index, a proxy measure of hazard or liquidity surcharge, was estimated as consistently negative (-) although statistical significance was low, which can be interpreted as a match with the theory. Consumer price index in all market profit rate was found to have positive (+) signs although their statistical significance was low. It can be interpreted that it moves with the same direction as Jeonse price rise.

In the estimation of dummy variable of LTV and DTI (housing regulation policy variables) stock profit rate showed negative (-) sign during the period of LTV 1, LTV 2, and DTI 1 and positive sign (+) during the period of LTV 3, DTI 2, and DTI 3. Bond profit rate showed negative (-) sign only during the period of LTV 1 and DTI 1 and otherwise positive (+). The alignment of bond profit rate and Jeonse price during the period of DTI 2 and DTI 3 shows the inclination to invest in safe assets connecting to domestic trend of economic performance. The relationship between global financial debacthale and Jeonse?Sales Prices Ratio was found to have negative (-) sign. It seems because apartment sales waiting demand transfers to Jeonse demand as macro economy becomes unclear owing to external shock effects and apartment sales transactions were contracted. Considering high statistical significance of bonds, this period is judged to have high preference to safe assets.
Conclusively, to make a summary the current situations of real economy regarding Jeonse price and the rise of Jeonse?Sales Prices Ratio based on asset market equilibrium, high Jeonse?Sales Prices Ratio in 2002 might occur because of demand and supply factors of Jeonse and Sales, while recent Jeonse price rise was made because prospective buyers, who judged there would not be capital profit as the function of investment goods of apartments is lowered, went to Jeonse market with actual Jeonse consumers. It means that currency demand on Jeonse with speculative motivation has increased while speculative sales demand had decreased.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. 서 론
• 1. 연구의 배경과 목적
• 2. 연구의 범위 및 방법
• 3. 선행연구
• II. 이론적 고찰
• 1. 자산시장의 균형과 전세가율
• 2. 기대가격 결정이론
• 3. 주택시장 규제정책
• 4. 글로벌 금융위기 고찰
• III. 전국 아파트 전세시장의 특성 및 동향
• 1. 아파트 전세시장 현황
• 2. 아파트 전세가율과 가격상승률
• V. 자산시장 균형조건에 따른 전세가율의 실증분석
• 1. 분석모형
• 2. 분석결과
• Ⅶ. 결 론
• 1. 연구의 요약 및 시사점
• 2. 연구의 한계 및 향후 과제