오피스빌딩의 시장자본환원율과 투자선호에 관한 연구 = (A)Study on the Market Capitalization Rate of Office Building and Investment Preference

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Office building market can be divided into leasing market and asset markets can be divided into. The important indicators for leasing market are rent and vacancy rate and capitalization rate has been used as important indicator for asset market.
The capitalization rate is a key indicator which shows the rate of investment return that impacts the investors’ decision making. The trends and changes of office building investment can be predicted using capitalization rate and also various economic variables.
The specialized institutions in office buildings announce the capitalization rate of overall Seoul area such as CBD, GBD, and YBD every quarter. However, those are a simple average of sales price and expected rate of return. The government also announces the capitalization rate which the appraisers subjectively assessed price. In this way, the capitalization rate has evaluated by the appraisers and simply averaged the rate without concern of physical characteristics of the individual office buildings. It is hard to say that whether the right information has delivered to the investors since there was sampling error or bias to evaluate the capitalization rate. Therefore, the study of representative and average capitalization rate is needed which can be reflected to the real estate market.
In this study, hedonic price index model has used to examine the characteristics of office buildings to control the differences of capitalization rate. Then, estimated the average and representative market capitalization rate and examined the relationship between macroeconomic variables using the time series.
Investment principals and preferences have studied within logit model and the spread of capitalization rate which is the differences between quarterly capitalization rate that applied during the actual sales period and quarterly estimated market capitalization rate.
Derived through the process of the comprehensive results of this study are as follows.
First of all, through office building market capitalization rate study, the components of capitalization rate which are risk premium and expectation of rent and sales price, can be affected by the buildings where the vacancy risk, potential development site, or sales type could be the variables to the physical properties that has investigated.
Second, the quarterly market capitalization rate has compared between the determinants of the average estimated coefficient of each variable by 1999.4Q as a baseline and used expected coefficient as dummy for each quarter. The result showed that the weighted average capitalization rate by gross floor area and the simply averaged the capitalization rate did not presume the exact market period.
Third, in this study, with an estimated market capitalization rate and macroeconomic variables are closely related that statistically significant at the level of vacancy rates showed positive (+), and credit spreads, number of white collar employees, and the money supply showed negative (-) in the range of significant market capitalization rate.
Fourth, foreign investors were sensitive to the capitalization rate and prefer to have high rate was found after the office building investment tendency analysis.
Fifth, an indirect way of investing primarily used for investments are listed that sensitive to capitalization rate and high rate would be preferred but high rate preference tendency analyzed low that showed no relationship.
Lastly, investment model analysis which based on the major investor showed that only cares the foreign capital’s indirect investment and direct invest way and prefers the high rate.
Market myths assumed the result that foreign capital prefers the high capitalization rate but the argument of high rate preferred from direct investment was not found. However, only foreign capitalist desires to have higher rate among direct investments. The preference level of high capitalization rate identified depending on the major investor rather than investment approaches. Also, foreign capitalist cares operation cash flow more than domestic capital.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1 장 서 론
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적
• 1. 연구의 배경
• 2. 연구의 목적
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 방법
• 1. 연구의 범위 및 자료
• 2. 연구의 방법
• 3. 연구의 체계
• 제 2 장 이론 및 선행연구 고찰
• 제1절 자본환원율의 개념
• 1. 오피스빌딩 투자수익 분석
• 2. 자본환원율의 의의
• 제2절 오피스빌딩 투자시장 현황
• 1. 오피스빌딩의 분류
• 2. 투자시장 규모와 자본환원율 추이
• 3. 오피스빌딩의 투자방식 변화
• 제3절 자본환원율에 관한 선행연구
• 1. 외국의 선행연구
• 2. 국내의 선행연구
• 제4절 본 연구의 차별성
• 제 3 장 오피스빌딩의 시장자본환원율 추정
• 제1절 시장자본환원율의 의의
• 제2절 연구자료 및 분석방법
• 제3절 시간에 따른 자본환원율의 변화추정
• 1. 이론적 모형의 설정
• 2. 변수의 선정 및 추정식
• 3. 기초통계량
• 4. 시간에 따른 자본환원율의 변화 추정결과
• 5. 시장자본환원율과 기타 자본환원율의 비교
• 제4절 소결
• 제 4 장 시장자본환원율과 거시변수와의 관계
• 제1절 이론적 모형의 설정
• 제2절 변수들의 기초통계량 및 단위근 검정
• 1. 기초통계량
• 2. 단위근 검정 및 추정식
• 제3절 추정결과
• 제4절 소결
• 제 5 장 자본환원율과 투자주체 및 방식과의 관계
• 제1절 이론적 모형의 설정
• 1. 연구가설과 이론적 모형
• 2. 변수의 선정 및 추정식
• 제2절 실증분석
• 1. 기초통계량
• 2. 추정결과
• 제3절 소결
• 제 6 장 결 론
• 제1절 연구의 요약
• 제2절 연구의 한계 및 향후과제
• 참 고 문 헌
• ABSTRACT