LISREL 模型을 활용한 山林資源 育成政策의 評價 = Evaluation of the Korean forest resources promtion policy by using LISREL model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The objectives of this study are 1) to give grounds for justification of forest resources management policy and 2) to provide necessary information for the decision-making whether the policy should be further expanded or not.
Forest policy on improving national forest resources programs such as silviculture and forest tending was investigated and analyzed whether it is suitable or not in recognition of the solutions to the problems of policy establishment, decision, and execution. The degree of support among stake-holders such as forest owners, foresters, other government ministries, political organizations and people was also analyzed to evaluate the results and effects of policy. Alternative policy was suggested through identifying the relationship between the policy goals and results.
Literature review on the policies for improving forest resources has been done to analyze the results and successful factors of its policy for the last 40 years. Results of the questionnaire survey on 598 government officers and normal people related to forest policy were analyzed using SPSS and LISREL(LInear Structural RELations).
The results of analysis on the survey showed that there were some technical difficulties in terms of the selection of project sites and the application of forest operation methods during the implementation of Forest Resources Promotion Policy(FRPP).
FRPP aiming at promoting the economic and environmental values of forests was well coincided with the objectives of forest policy and the basic direction of forest policy with the slogan of 'Healthy Forest, Rich Mountains and Happy People'. Government's supporting conditions and levels for the people were evaluated appropriate, and related laws and regulations and institutional arrangements for the effective execution of FRPP projects were also evaluated excellent.
There were, however, many opinions that FRPP projects are conflicted with other forest policies such as forest industry and forest recreation and culture.
Regarding the rationality of policy execution, selection process of project sites and operators were evaluated equitable. It was evaluated that local governments and Regional Forest Service Offices conducted FRPP projects rationally and project managers did their best to carry out FRPP with leadership with their little discretions. There was also an opportunity by which critical opinions of the outside such as forest owners during the execution of FRPP were being reflected. The support rate for FRPP showed higher level from people, other government ministries, and interest groups than that of political bodies. The results of FRPP and its effectiveness were generally considered successful. Economic effects of FRPP, however, showed lower than those of other sectors.
LISREL methodology was found suitable for the evaluation of results and effects of FRPP. Among five null hypotheses, four were rejected and one was found significant as shown below:
a. Hypothesis 1(policy will be successful as far as the problem recognition on FRPP is appropriate) was significant at the level of 0.05.
b. Hypothesis 2(policy will be successful as far as decision-making for FRPP is appropriate) and hypothesis 3(policy will be successful as far as the execution of FRPP is rational) was significant at the level of 0.01.
c. Hypothesis 4(policy will be successful as far as the degree of support for FRPP is higher) was statistically significant. The degree of support for the policy are related with the policy effect rather than the policy result so that it should be interpreted in terms of society as a whole.
d. Hypothesis 5(as far as the policy result is successful, it contributes to the realization of social justice because the policy effect becomes desirable to the society as a whole) was significant at the level of 0.01.
However, one null hypothesis that policy will be successful if it gets the higher degree of support for FRPP was found not significant.
In the model of measurement, the appropriateness of the problem recognition was affected by the degree of technical difficulty. The relevance of policy decision was affected by several indices as follows : 1) fitness of FRPP's goals, 2) coincidence with the forest policy direction, 3) conflict with other policies, 4) institutional arrangements, 5) consistency of FRPP, 6) suitable subsidy levels and equity, 7) rationality of local governments, 8) discretionary power, loyalty and leadership of project manager and 9) support level of people, political organizations and interest groups. The rationality of policy implementation was influenced by equitability, rationality of local governments and regional forest service offices, discretionary power, loyalty and leadership of project manager, support level of people, political organizations and interest groups and comments from the outside. The degree of support for FRPP was affected by support level of people and other government agencies. Moreover, policy results was measured by degree of policy success, economic effect, reduction of CO2, increasing multi functions of forests, demand for forest recreation, and conservation of biodiversity. Policy effect was measured by independent variables of improvement of living quality, national productivity and social justice.
In conclusion, the policy results of forest resource development showed the positive relations with the suitability of problem recognition, the suitability of policy decision-making and rationality of policy execution significantly, while the degree of policy support and the policy results were having significant impacts upon the policy effectiveness. Since the path coefficients between the latent variables and observed variables and among the latent variables mostly showed the positive relations significantly, the forest resource development policy was evaluated very successful in terms of policy accomplishments and policy effectiveness.
As the results of the study, political suggestions for the future implementation of FRPP are as follows:
First, the problem perception should be accurate for rational decision of FRPP. Government has to conduct the planting and forest tending programs initiatively as the forests are considered a public property. Also, capacity building through on-site workshop and technical training program is one of the very important factors for the successful implementation of FRPP.
Precautious decisions on the policy of changing plant species from coniferous trees to broad-leaved trees are needed. National silvicultural plan by region and species has to be in a longer term for regeneration into native and economically viable species. Expansions of natural forests through natural regeneration as well as urban greening areas should be actively undertaken. Timely tending activities to increase economic and public benefits of forests needs active political support of the government and differentiated tending methods with due regard to six functions of the forests such as timber production, water storage, protection of natural disasters, conservation of natural environment, recreation and conservation of living environment have to be employed. Also, urban greening should be considered as a main item on forest policy.
Secondly, FRPP should be considered with less conflicts with forest industry, forest recreation and culture and other policies. Also, national silvicultural program should be conducted sustainably and consistently in terms of SFM and healthy forest ecosystem.
Thirdly, the equitability for selections of project sites and operators should be secured in implementing FRPP, as well periodical supervision together with providing objective and adaptable standards for the implementation of FRPP be strengthened. In addition, expansion of project discretion through capacity building of the project manager as well as increasing the participatory opportunities of stake-holders through on-line and off-line opinion windows should be also positively reviewed.
Fourthly, publicity activities has to be strengthened for gaining support from the political organizations. On-site workshop, explanation meetings and other related activities against national assembly members and other politicians should be strengthened because the related laws and budgets are the basic measures for the policy implementation.
Finally, the multi-purpose management of forests for forest income should be applied together with FRPP to further increase the results and effects of FRPP while the change of attitude of the stake-holders on FRPP be mobilized through strengthening the publicity and expanding communication and education opportunities for the FRPP.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서 론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 제2절 연구의 범위와 방법 4
• 1. 연구 범위 4
• 2. 연구 방법 5
• 제3절 선행연구 검토 7
• 1. 산림자원 육성정책 등에 관한 연구 7
• 2. LISREL모형을 활용한 정책평가 연구 15
• 3. 기타 정책평가 기법 등에 관한 연구 20
• 제2장 이론적 고찰 23
• 제1절 산림자원 육성정책의 이론적 배경 23
• 1. 산림자원의 개념과 특징 23
• 2. 산림자원의 현황 27
• 3. 산림정책의 의의 29
• 4. 산림자원 육성정책의 개념과 특성 35
• 5. 산림자원 육성정책 관련 주요법령 39
• 제2절 정책평가의 이론적 배경 44
• 1. 정책평가의 개념 및 필요성 44
• 2. 정책평가의 유형 46
• 3. 정책평가의 기준과 과정 51
• 4. 정책평가의 타당성 60
• 5. 정책평가모형 62
• 제3절 LISREL 구조방정식모델 이론 64
• 1. 구조방정식모델의 의의 64
• 2. 구조방정식모델의 특성 65
• 3. 구조방정식모델에서의 변수 65
• 4. 구조방정식모델 프로그램 LISREL 68
• 제3장 산림자원 육성정책 전개과정과 추진실적 71
• 제1절 산림자원 육성정책 전개과정 71
• 1. 산지복구 및 치산녹화기(1967～1987) 71
• 2. 산지자원화기(1988～1997) 77
• 3. 산림경영기반 구축기(1998～2007) 80
• 제2절 지난 40년간의 주요 추진실적 86
• 1. 조림정책 부문 88
• 2. 육림정책 부문 94
• 3. 종묘정책 부문 97
• 제4장 산림자원 육성정책 실증분석 및 평가 100
• 제1절 평가모형 100
• 제2절 가설(hypothesis)의 설정 105
• 제3절 변수의 설정 107
• 1. 독립변수 107
• 2. 종속변수 108
• 제4절 자료 수집 111
• 1. 조사대상 및 방법 111
• 2. 조사 내용 112
• 3. 설문내용의 신뢰성 분석 114
• 제5절 평가 결과 115
• 1. 인구학적 특성별 요인의 차이 115
• 2. 부문별 평가 결과 126
• 제6절 평가모형의 추정 178
• 1. 모형의 추정절차 178
• 2. LISREL 모형 추정결과 178
• 제5장 결 론 186
• 제1절 요 약 186
• 제2절 정책적 시사점 189
• 참고문헌 195
• ABSTRACT 205
• 부 록 213
• 부록1 213
• 부록2 220
• 부록3 226