農産物市場의 價格傳達 非對稱性 = Asymmetric price transmission in the agricultural market

국문 초록 (Abstract)

영문초록 : Many economists have been taking some researches about asymmetric price transmission, especially about the agricultural products whose prices change greatly until now. Agricultural products are also closely related with our daily life, and thus it is very meaningful for us to researching asymmetric transmission to agricultural products prices. The study of overseas agricultural products has been professional and advanced, and the study is also involved with many sorts. However, the study of price transmission of agricultural products market in Korea is less mentioned. And thus, I plan to study and research this issue, price transmission of agricultural products market in Korea, to confirm whether there is asymmetric price transmission. There are many types of price transmission system, and each type can reflect problems in market currency. This study is referred as the total eleven kinds of agricultural products. Livestock products comprise beef, pork, chicken and eggs; grain crops contain pearl rice, potatoes and sweet potatoes; vegetable comprise cucumber and onion; fruit contains apple and pear. All of data from the study are monthly data, the data livestock products is from 1980 to June, 2005, and the data of another agricultural products is from 1998 to July, 2006. The data of livestock products comprises sale place of production, wholesale and retail, but the price of another agricultural products only comprise wholesale and retail, due to the limitation of collecting data. And thus in the course of the study, the study of livestock can illustrate the problem of asymmetric price transmission in the three current phrases from place of production to wholesale, from wholesale to retail, from place of production to retail, and yet, the study of another agricultural products only can illustrate the problem of asymmetric price transmission in the three phrase from wholesale to retail. Before positive analysis is going on with econometrics model, it is essential to recognize and analyze agricultural market objectively. In the thesis, Chapter 3 analyzes current path of agricultural each product and current expense of agricultural product and the process of construction of each agricultural product and factors influencing prices. Therefore, I draw a conclusion about characteristic of each agricultural product, putting forward possibility of asymmetric price transmission. The research shows that the original price is the big proportion in the price make-up of livestock and the profit rate of retailers is a little high. The relationship between the original price and retail profit is inverse proportion, for a consumption price in a market is comparatively more stable than an original price. As an original price is higher, meanwhile, a price of retail will be higher together. However, the added profit is less due to enduring capability of a market. On the contrary, an original price is lower comparatively, retailers can keep a previous market price which result in a profit rate rising greatly. A change of price asymmetry may lead to an asymmetric price transmission readily. Another agricultural product have a different case that original prices of these agricultural products have a little proportion, retailer’s profit, however, has a low profit rate. Because this kind of product has more current link from maker to consumer, and thus packing expense, transportation expense and retailers’ managing expense have a big rate. If in a market, these agricultural products do not change a lot, the asymmetry of retail price and wholesale price can not happen readily. According to the result of model regression, we may find asymmetric phenomenon of price transmission in the livestock market. In the phase from original place to retail, pork price is short-run asymmetric and long-run asymmetric, and chicken price is long-run asymmetric. In the phase from wholesale to retail, anything except pork price is short-run asymmetric, and eggs is still long-run asymmetric. In the phase from original place to retail, it is shown that 4 kinds of livestock are short-run asymmetric, and beef price and eggs price are long-run asymmetric. A short-run asymmetry is likely to come from an impulsive impact in a market, however market system is irrational, and model regressions show above 4 kinds of livestock is long-run asymmetric in a certain phase, and thus current construction of livestock products still has some problems that maybe come from retailers; if the phase from original place to retail has a problem that is probably because that retailers take more excessive profit. And thus a policy ought to be adjusted. The analysis of crops shows that there is a short-run asymmetry and long-run asymmetry between pearl rice and retail price which illustrates that current construction of pearl rice is not rational. Thanks to the particularity of produce of pearl rice and currency of pearl rice, the long-run domination of government influences the shape of real price, and price is distorted. Price of sweet potato is long-run asymmetric, therefore, self-control capability of retail price maybe has some problems, and among them, only cucumber price and apple price are short-run asymmetric. It is found out that previous price is a little different from current price. Eventually, as for the vegetable price and fruit price, only cucumber price and apple price are short-run asymmetric which indicates that fruit market and vegetable market are still a little more stable in the long-run in Korean market, apple price and cucumber price, however, are asymmetric owing to exterior reasons. In summary, it is suggested that a government enforce further management to livestock markets. Abrupt huge profits problems of retailers should especially be solved properly in system, and then the real price of livestock products can shape according to the market law and profit of consumer can be protected actually. For another product, we ought to research short-run asymmetric reason, and adjust properly in market system, and eventually eliminate any factor influencing price asymmetric. This thesis is limited in data collection. Owing to that, more agricultural products can not be anglicized, and thus it is not discussed objectively asymmetric price transmission of agricultural products in Koran market. And another one is that there is no consideration about export and import of agricultural products. If considering this factor, we can draw a more objective and submissive conclusion