製造業의 對 中國 FDI가 國內 雇傭, 輸出 및 生産性에 미치는 影響 = (A) positive analysis on how the FDI of manufacturing industry to China affects domestic employment, export and productivity in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

It is said that Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) has become a key part of national development strategies for many countries. Korea's first FDI is registered that Korea Nambang development company's investment is recorded in 1968 in Indonesia forest development. Since then, FDI movement is very slow due to short of foreign exchange reserves and the strict control on foreign exchange control law.
In 1985, G5's Plaza Agreement made Korean Won appreciation and substantial trade surplus during 1986~1990 which makes it's FDI activity more dynamic. China become Korea's first business partner of export since 2003 and of import in 2007 and of FDI based on accumulated amount in 2006 separately. There are a lot of changes in every fields between Korea and China since diplomatic relations normalized in 1992.
This paper contents how Korea FDI of manufacturing industry to China affects domestic employment, export and production efficiency during investment liberalization period of 1992~2000 and 2001~2006 and after that, China's entry to WTO membership. According to EXIM bank's report, FDI to China is 30.8% and manufacturing industry is 84.2% among them. This rapid increase may lead the de-industrialization of same field of industry in Korea.
The method of analysis how FDI to China influence an employment effects in domestic industry is that fixed effect model by panel analysis has been researched using No. of employment in the same manufacturing industry and the amount of the FDI. This panel analysis covers both of two period of 1992~2000 and 2001~2006 separately. The effects of the FDI might come at same time as well as 1 or 2 year later. So, considering this time difference, the analysis applied for the period of investment, next period (t-1) and then (t-2). This rules the influence to export and productivity.
As for the influence of the FDI to domestic export, export function model has been used in condition of overseas demand and export price fixed. How the FDI influence the export using explanation variable.
To analyse the productivity effect of domestic industry considering the amount of the FDI, Cobb-Douglas's production function model has been modified to the assumption model.
The analysis results of assumed employment function says that there is negative effect between the FDI and domestic employment in the same year. It is mainly caused that the employment is reduced at same time of the current production facilities moved to China. Considering the time difference between the FDI and production, the result for t-1 and t-2 show that practical value added coefficient is positive shown as 0.178 and 0.218. This is concluded that the value added effects in domestic industry leads to increase the domestic employment in results of commencing the production in China.
The analysis results of domestic productivity shows that the coefficient of FDI variable is slightly increased in the period of 1992~2000 comparing to 2001~2006. This figures that the production facilities of "high cost and low efficiency" has been transferred to China and it enables domestic industry increase it's productivity. It is supported that major enterprise who invested in China is 85 companies in 1992~2000 and 94% of them moved their production base and 76% of 168 companies in 2001~2006 followed.
The purpose of this paper is to see how the FDI of manufacturing industry to China affects the employment, export and productivity of the same industry in Korea. However, it's not critically proved them because the related statistic is very limited and also the FDI volume is not much as capable influence to variables. Another reason is set limited statistical data in manufacturing industry and also FDI to China only. Moreover, the FDI statistics of Korea, reported base is almost half of China, registered one which means re-investment locally and FDI of Korean company from other country are not included.
This paper's object is to see how does it move of the de-industrialization phenomenon while the positive effect of increasing productivity. This trend of outward FDI is forecasted to enlarge in both of investment amount and other Asian countries such as Vietnam and India.
It is to be regretted that the results of employment, export and productivity are not completely backed with projected assumption because the period of observation is not long enough to find out optimal object as the period is 1991~200 and 2001~2006 and also manufacturing industry only. However, it is believed that there is a big possibility to improve this paper in case of more long term base and more wide-open industry.
It is hoped that more optimal results of this paper's intents would come out if the more long term base and precise statistics about the FDI are provided.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제Ⅰ장 서론 = 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 필요성 = 1
• 제2절 연구의 방법과 범위 = 3
• 제Ⅱ장 해외직접투자에 관한 고찰 = 5
• 제1절 해외직접투자의 개념 = 5
• 1. 해외직접투자의 개념 = 5
• 2. 해외직접투자의 동기 = 5
• 3. 해외직접투자의 형태 = 8
• 4. 해외직접투자가 본국에 미치는 효과 = 9
• 제2절 오프쇼어링(offshoring)의 개념 = 11
• 1. 오프쇼어링의 개념 = 11
• 2. 오프쇼어링의 분류 = 11
• 제3절 중국과 우리나라의 해외직접투자(Foreign Direct Investment) = 12
• 1. 우리나라의 해외직접투자 정책 및 제도 = 12
• 2. 중국과 우리나라의 FDI 전개과정 = 13
• 3. 중국과 우리나라의 FDI 현황 = 14
• 제Ⅲ장 선행연구 고찰 = 27
• 1. 서영경·이한녕(2002)의 연구 = 27
• 2. 강두용외 3인(2004)의 연구 = 27
• 3. 하병기(2004)의 연구 = 29
• 4. 김종섭·김별화(2005)의 연구 = 31
• 5. 신현열·오진석(2005)의 연구 = 33
• 6. 김원규(2006)의 연구 = 35
• 제Ⅳ장 해외직접투자의 효과에 관한 실증분석 = 37
• 제1절 분석모형 = 37
• 1. 고용함수 추정모형 = 38
• 2. 해외직접투자가 수출에 미치는 효과 추정모형 = 40
• 3. 생산성에 미치는 효과 분석모형 = 41
• 제2절 자료의 수집과 모형의 추정 = 45
• 1. 고용함수 추정 = 47
• 2. 해외직접투자가 수출에 미치는 효과 추정 = 49
• 3. 해외직접투자가 생산성에 미치는 효과 추정 = 51
• 제Ⅴ장 요약 및 결론 = 56
• <참고문헌> = 60
• Ⅰ. 국내 = 60
• 1. 참고문헌 = 59
• 2. 참고사이트 = 63
• Ⅱ. 해외문헌 = 64
• [부록] = 66
• [부록1] 제조업 업종별 취업자 수 = 66
• [부록2] 제조업 업종별 실질부가가치 = 67
• [부록3] 제조업 업종별 실질임금 = 68
• [부록4] 제조업 품목분류기준 실질수출액 = 69
• [부록5] 제조업 업종별 노동생산성 = 70
• [부록6] 제조업 업종별 해외직접투자(투자금액 기준) = 71
• [부록7] 목구조별 수입총액 = 72
• [부록8] 제조업 품목분류기준 수출단가 = 72
• [부록9] 제조업 업종별 1인당 부가가치 = 73
• [부록10] 제조업 업종별 노동장비율 = 74
• [부록 11] 제조업 업종별 노동소득분배율 = 75
• [부록 12] 제조업 업종별 연구개발비 매출액대비율(사용) = 76
• [부록 13] 제조업 업종별 취업계수의 역수 = 76
• Abstract = 77