Do academic integration programs have a causal impact on college retention? A study of a developmental mathematics course using discrete-time survival and regression-discontinuity analysis.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The impact of academic integration programs---such as developmental mathematics programs---on student retention has been a controversial topic for administrators, policy makers, and faculty in higher education. Despite the interest in the effectiveness of these programs on student retention, scholars have been unable to determine whether these programs have a causal impact on student retention since most of the research is focused exclusively on student factors such as background and demographic characteristics as predictors of dropout. The current research has not been able to isolate the causal impact of a developmental program because it is unreasonable to assign students to a developmental program based on a random assignment. Furthermore, previous research is also limited by cross-sectional, retrospective designs despite the longitudinal nature of dropout data.
My research overcame these limitations by using a unique research design which embeds a regression-discontinuity design within discrete-time survival analysis framework. By combining these two methods, I was able to determine whether participation in a developmental mathematics program has a causal impact on when students are most at risk for dropping out of college. My findings suggest that the risk of leaving college for students who participate in developmental math programs is significantly lower than the risk of leaving college for equivalent students who did not participate in such programs. I found that the estimated odds of dropping out college for the first time for students who participated in the developmental mathematics program at my site is approximately 23.2% of the odds for equivalent non-developmental students who did not participate in the developmental mathematics program.