隱退決定 및 隱退 後 消費와 所得에 관한 硏究 : 패널資料를 利用한 分析 = Retirement, post-retirement consumption and retirement income replacement ratio : a panel data analysis

국문 초록 (Abstract)

패널자료를 이용하여 은퇴 결정요인 및 은퇴가 소비에 미치는 영향, 그리고 은퇴 후 적정 소득대체율을 추계하였음.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Demographic change such as a rapid population aging has been a major challenge facing the industrialized countries. In particular, the retirement of the "baby boom" generation, combined with their longer life expectancies, will place extraordinary pressures on the economic resources, which are necessary to sustain the rising standard of living. Therefore, economic well being of retirees becomes most significant concerns among various socioeconomic problems.
Many researchers have attempted to investigate the economic behavior of the retirees; their retirement decision, consumption over the life cycle, appropriate income level to sustain the pre-retirement welfare level, etc. Most studies on retirement in Korea, however, give rise to a problem of using cross-section data instead of panel data. Using cross-section data, they have compared the retirees' behaviors to non-retirees' in order to compare the economic behaviors during the post-retirement periods to the pre-retirement periods. Such the comparison misleads conclusions, since behavioral differences between retirees and non-retirees can be attributable to the differences in individual characteristics other than whether they have been retired or not.
This provokes me to use the longitudinal panel data and compare the retirees' own pre-retirement economic behavior and post-retirement economic behavior in order to analyze the behavior of retirees. The data used here is the 1998-2003 Survey of Korea Labor & Income Panel Study(KLIPS). KLIPS is a longitudinal survey of households and individuals residing in urban areas on their labor market and income activities. Both 2001 and 2003 survey of KLIPS contain the detailed information about health and retirement.
In this paper, I analyzed three issues regarding the retirees' economic behavior using the KLIPS. Firstly, I focused on the retirement decision and analyzed what factors affect the retirement decision of the elderly in Korea. To address these questions, I incorporated the factors affecting retirement decision into three groups; 1) financial resources available actually (wage, non-wage income, housing status, public pension), 2) ability to work (age, gender, occupational status, level of education), and 3) financial needs (number of household, marital status). And I estimated the panel probit estimation with random effect.
Secondly, I analyzed the relationship between household head's retirement and household consumption. From the dynamic optimization problem of the household consumption with uncertainty, I derived the household consumption equation including retirement dummy as a independent variable. To estimate the equation, I employed the linear panel data analysis methods such as within groups estimation, between groups estimation, and panel generalized method of moments(GMM). To analyze the relationship between retirement and consumption, I also investigated the interdependence of two decisions on when to retire and how much consume before and after retirement. I compared the pre- (or post-) retirement consumption conditioned on the retirement decision to pre- (or post-) retirement consumption regardless of retirement decision. I employed the two-stage switching regression for the econometric method. Then I tested the existence of the interdependence in terms of the significance of the estimated selection biases which appeared in the pre- (post-) retirement consumption equations for early and late retirees. In those equations, I also compared the income elasticity of the consumption of the early retirees to that of the late retirees.
Thirdly, I estimated the optimal income replacement ratio. The concept of income replacement ratio involves how much economic resources retirees should have. To capture this concept, I measured an adequate post-retirement consumption level in terms of the estimated results of the household consumption equation and then estimated the ratio of post-retirement consumption to pre-retirement income.
The major findings are as follows;
(1) Among the variables related to the ability to work, household heads' age and level of education show significantly positive signs and increase the retirement probabilities. Among the variables related to the financial resources actually available, non-wage income and public pension have significantly positive effect on retirement decision while wage has a significantly negative effect on retirement decision. Marital status reflecting the financial need has a significantly negative sign, implying that those living with a wife tend to have a lower retirement probability.
(2) The estimated results of the household consumption equation show that retirement dummy variable has a significantly positive sign. It implies that retirement of the household head increases household consumption after controlling the individual characteristics of the household head, household income and housing status.
(3) There is a negative selection bias in early retirees' consumption. This implies that due to the early retirement decision early retirees would have consumed less than they actually have. The income elasticities of the consumption of the early retirees is smaller than that of the late retirees in pre- (or post-) retirement consumption equation. These results show that relatively longer retirement period due to the early retirement affect the household consumption.
(4) The optimal income replacement ratio is 66.55%. This implies that comparing to the pre-retirement income, retirees need only 66.55% of income during the retirement period.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론 = 1
• 1. 연구배경 = 1
• 2. 연구주제 = 4
• 가. 은퇴자가구의 특성 및 은퇴결정요인에 관한 분석 = 4
• 나. 은퇴 및 조기은퇴가 소비에 미치는 영향 분석 = 4
• 다. 은퇴자가구의 적정 소득대체율 추계 = 5
• 3. 논문의 구성 = 6
• Ⅱ. 기존연구 검토 = 8
• 1. 은퇴결정 및 은퇴 후 소득과 소비에 관한 이론적 논의 = 8
• 가. 은퇴 결정에 관한 이론적 논의 = 8
• 나. 은퇴 후 소득과 소비에 관한 이론적 논의 = 9
• 2. 은퇴결정 및 은퇴 후 소비에 관한 실증연구 = 12
• 가. 은퇴 결정에 관한 연구 = 12
• 나. 은퇴 후 소비에 관한 연구 = 13
• 다. 조기은퇴가 소비에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 = 16
• 라. 은퇴 후 소득대체율에 관한 연구 = 18
• Ⅲ. 가구주 특성과 은퇴결정에 관한 분석 = 23
• 1. 문제제기 = 23
• 2. 연구자료 및 주요 용어 정의 = 23
• 가. 한국의 가구조사 자료 실태와 『한국노동패널』 = 23
• 나. 주요 용어정의 = 26
• 3. 은퇴자 가구의 특성 = 32
• 가. 은퇴자 가구의 가구 특성 = 32
• 나. 은퇴자 가구의 경제상태 = 35
• 4. 가구주 특성과 은퇴 = 40
• 가. 분석자료 = 40
• 나. 은퇴 연령 = 40
• 다. 은퇴 원인 = 55
• 5. 은퇴결정요인 분석 = 56
• 가. 문제제기 = 56
• 나. 자료 및 변수 = 58
• 다. 추정결과 = 59
• Ⅳ. 은퇴가 소비에 미치는 영향 분석 = 64
• 1. 은퇴 전·후 소비에 대한 기초자료 분석 = 64
• 2. 은퇴가 소비에 미치는 영향 분석 = 67
• 가. 추정모형 = 67
• 나. 추정방법 = 70
• 다. 자료 및 변수 = 81
• 라. 추정결과 = 82
• 3. 조기은퇴가 소비에 미치는 영향 분석 = 88
• 가. 문제제기 = 88
• 나. 연구가설 = 89
• 다. 추정방법, 자료 및 변수정의 = 90
• 라. 추정결과 = 98
• Ⅴ. 은퇴자가구의 적정 소득대체율 = 104
• 1. 문제제기 = 104
• 2. 기존 연구방법 검토 = 105
• 가. 공적자금제도개선실무위원회(2000) 등 = 105
• 나. 여윤경(2002) = 107
• 다. An(2003), 안종범·전승훈(2003) 등 = 109
• 3. 소득대체율 추계 방법과 자료 = 110
• 가. 소득대체율 추계 방법 = 110
• 나. 추정방법, 자료 및 변수 = 111
• 4. 은퇴자 가구의 적정 소득대체율 추계 결과 = 113
• 가. 가계지출함수 추정결과 = 113
• 나. 은퇴자가구의 적정 소득대체율 = 115
• 5. 은퇴자가구의 적정 소득대체율과 국민연금 = 120
• 가. 국민연금 급여수준 추계 방법 = 120
• 나. 국민연금 적정 급여추계 결과 = 122
• Ⅵ. 정책시사점 및 연구의 향후 발전 방향 = 126
• 1. 요약 = 126
• 가. 가구주 특성과 은퇴 = 127
• 나. 은퇴가 소비에 미치는 영향 분석 = 129
• 다. 은퇴자의 적정 소득대체율 추계 = 130
• 2. 정책시사점 = 130
• 3. 연구의 향후 발전방향 = 132
• 참고문헌 = 134
• ABSTRACT = 145

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