북한의 선군체제와 경제개혁의 관계 = North Korea`s Military-First Regime and Economic Reform

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This Paper explains the relations between Military-First regime and Economic Reform. North korea insists that the parallel development of Nuclear deterrence and Economic growth is possible. But as the experience of India and Pakistan after real nuclear powers in 1998, the limited conflicts exist and the conventional defence spending can not be decreased. North Korea`s Nuclear deterrence runs counter to such economic development, especially in the resources reallocation- labour, finance, energy and so on. North Korea also would not concentrate on the military industry- the key strategic sectorapart from the noninterference policy in the civil industry because of the industry linkage effects between two sectors. Military first economy can not be seen as sustainable. In China and Cuba, the military has a long tradition of involvement in economic activity. As a result, the leadership viewed it as the only entity capable of implementing key economic reforms. But in North Korea, the military was not so much a vehicle of reform. And so, North Korea have to prepare the chance military`s benefit structure in the market-oriented reform process.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 류길재, "예외국가의 제도화: 군사국가화 경향과 군의 역할 확대, In 북한의 국가성격 변용에 관한 연구: 예외국가의 공고화" 한울 아카데미 2001

2 김병욱, "선군경제운영과 민수산업 군수화" 2011

3 양문수, "북한의 화폐개혁: 실태와 평가" 평화문제연구소 22 (22): 59-91, 2010

4 이영훈, "북한의 하이퍼인플레이션과 개혁개방 전망" 북한연구학회 16 (16): 51-73, 2012

5 고일동, "북한의 재정위기와 재정안정화를 위한 과제" 한국개발연구원 2004

6 김연철, "북한의 산업화와 경제정책" 역사비평사 2001

7 탁성한, "북한의 군수산업: 북한 경제에의 영향과 향후 전망" (여름) : 2012

8 임강택, "북한의 군수산업 정책이 경제에 미치는 효과분석" 통일연구원 2000

9 권영경, "북한경제의 현황과 개혁개방 전망, In 북한이해" 통일부 2004

10 고일동, "북한 화폐 교환 및 액면단위 변경의 파급효과와 향후 전망" 2009

11 최진욱, "북한 선군정치의 정치적 함의" 4 (4): 2001

12 성채기, "북한 공표군사비 실체에 대한 정밀 재분석" 한국국방연구원 21 (21): 105-136, 2006

13 이달희, "북한 공식 발표 국방비의 진실 게임" 한국국방연구원 21 (21): 137-168, 2006

14 임수호, "김정일 정권 10년의 대내경제 정책 평가: 선군경제 노선을 중심으로" (여름) : 2009

15 와다 하루키, "[단행본] 북조선: 유격대국가에서 정규군국가로" 돌베개; 서울 2002

16 Waltz Kenneth N., "Why Iran Should Get the Bomb; Nuclear Balancing Would Mean Stability" 2012

17 Trachtenberg David J, "US Extended Deterrence; How Much Strategic Force is too Little" 2012

18 Spinivas V. N, "Trends in Defence Expenditure: India, China, and Pakistan" 3 (3): 2006

19 Bickford Thomas, "Sunrise or Sunset for the Chinese Military? The Business Operations of the Chinese People's Liberation Army" 46 (46): 1999

20 Rumbaugh Russel, "Resolving Ambiguity: Costing Nuclear Weapons" The Henry L. STIMSON Center 2012

21 Mulvenon James, "Military Corruption in China: A Conceptual Examination" 45 : 1998

22 Ganguly Summit, "India, Pakistan, and the Bomb: Debating Nuclear Stability in South Asia" Columbia University Press 2010

23 Mora Frank O., "Economic Reform and the Military: China, Cuba, and Syria in Comparative Perspective" 44 : 2003

24 Ericson Daniel P, "Charting Castro's Possible Successor" 25 (25): 2005

25 Sagan Scott, "A Nuclear Iran; Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster?" 2007

26 이선우, "'선군정치'와 '북한식' 경제개혁: 긴장된 병행의 논리" 북한대학원대학교 12 (12): 130-172, 2009