주택매매가격지수와 소비자심리지수 간의 인과관계 분석: 한국과 중국을 중심으로 = Causality Between Sales Price of Housing Index and Consumer Sentiment Index: Impact on Korea(South) and China

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Since an economical revolution in 1978 and an employment of an open door policy, China`s economy has grown at an exponential rate, scoring the second biggest economy of the world next to the U.S.. As real estate investment started to play a major role in its domestic economy, the price rate for real estate in China has significantly increased, and its size of development has expanded more than 20 percent a year on average since 1990s. It is expected that the economic exchange between South Korea and China has been active both in its quality and size, and will increase every year. Considering the size that the economy of China takes up the global economy, it has quickly become very important to focus on studying the effect of China`s economy to the world with its fast paced growth. Be one step ahead Korean government, National Bureau of Statistics of China released its Customer Sentiment Index [CSI] and made it an important indicator of its economic flow. In real estate market, although there are multiple macro economic indexes, predicting the economic change is very difficult. Recently, several researches report that the sentiment of real estate investment participants can affect its market, and these researches that study the relationship between consumer sentiment and economic change have been active both domestically and internationally. This using Housing Price Index and Time Series Analysis of selected city in each countr research was conducted between July 2008 to Feb 2013 and its focus of study involves the extent of Housing Price Index of each city affecting the both country`s CSI, the shaping factors of market interval and its reasoning, y: Seoul, Pusan, and Incheon for South Korea, and Beijing, Shanghai, and Qingdao for China. In this research, chapter I discusses the objectives and background of this study, chapter II for advanced research on the relationship between housing market and consumer sentiment, and chapter III consists of a brief definition of CSI, an overview of the economies in both nations based on several economic indicators, and thus the foundation of the basis for an empirical study. Chapter IV measures the relevant factors, in an attempt to explain the relationship between housing market and consumer sentiment. Finally, chapter V summarizes the result of analysis and proposes the future research objectives.