우리나라 지역 경기변동의 요인분석 = Korea`s Local Business Cycles and its Decomposition into a Common Factor and Region-specific Factors

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper investigates the importance of a common factor and region-specific factors in Korea`s 16 local economies` business cycles. A Bayesian dynamic factor model is utilized to estimate a dynamic factor common to all macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) and local economies, and 16 region-specific factors common to all local aggregates, simultaneously. To examine the relationship between the importance of unobserved factors and the macroeconomic structure of the local economies, we perform a linear regression analysis. The results indicate that overall, the common factor plays an important role in driving Korea`s local business cycles. Especially, the common factor is the critical source of volatility of both consumption and output. On the other hand, the common factor plays a minor role explaining investment fluctuations. This paper also finds that the importance of the common and region-specific factors across Korea`s local economies, is affected by the local macroeconomic structure such as the share of government expenditure in GRDP and manufacturing`s share of output.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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