건강보험 노인의료비의 증가요인분석 및 향후전망 = Contributing factors to the Increases in Health Insurance Expenditures for the Aged and Their Forecasts

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to predict the direction in which the ``health insurance expenditures for the aged (65 and over)`` will be headed in the days to come by analyzing factor by factor contributions to their increases in the past. The ``health insurance expenditure for the aged`` reached 15.4 trillion won in 2011, accounting for 33.3% of 46.2 trillion won or the total expenditure for the whole age groups. It has increased 17.1% for the past 10 years on an annual average, due largely to the increase in the rate of ``expenditures per capita`` calculated at 11.7% while the increase in the rate of the ``number of aged subscribers`` remains at 4.9%. The increase in ``expenditures per capita`` is ascribed mostly to that of ``expenditures per day`` (calculated at 10.0%) with that of ``service days per capita`` reaching a negligible 1.5%. It was confirmed that increases in ``expenditures per day`` include, on the one hand, those caused by price factors including both the conversion rate (an increase rate at 2.0%) and relative values (an increase rate at 3.1%) and, on the other, those caused by other factors such as ``service intensity per day`` and ``expansion in insurance coverage`` (an increase rate at 4.6%). When it comes to contributions to annual average increases (constant prices) in ``health insurance expenditures for the aged``, the contribution of the increase in the ``number of the aged subscribers`` stood at 41.4%, and that of the ``expenditures per capita`` reached 58.6% (price factors at 43.2% and volume factors at 15.4%), respectively. Overall, while the scale of the contributions was largely affected by price factors, the change was largely affected by volume factors. Projections up until 2020 were also made, where ``an adjusted scenario`` forecasts that ``health insurance expenditures for the aged`` will rise from 15.4 trillion won in 2011 to 33.3~47.7 trillion won in 2020, making 2.2~3.1 fold increases, while per capita expenditure is expected to increase from 2.97 million won to 4.5~6.4 million won.

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