회계발생액과 차별적 감사수요 = Accounting Accruals and the Demand for Differential Audits

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates how earnings persistence, measured by the time-series auto-correlation of accounting earnings (accounting earnings persistence) and the auto-correlation of abnormal earnings in the Ohlson (1995) model (abnormal earnings persistence), is associated with analysts` forecast error and accuracy. Using 2,469 firm-year forecasts in analyst reports that were issued on the websites of nine security companies in 2000 and 2001, we find that analysts issue significantly less optimistic and more accurate forecasts for firms with high earnings persistence than for firms with low earnings persistence regardless of how we measure earnings persistence. However, analysts issue significantly less optimistic and more accurate forecasts for firms with high abnormal earnings persistence than for firms with low abnormal earnings persistence, while analysts do not issue significantly optimistic or accurate forecasts for firms with high accounting earnings persistence compared to firms with low accounting earnings persistence when firm characteristics that affect the properties of earnings forecasts are controlled. The results in this study imply that analysts incorporate information in earnings persistence and such information is also contained in firm characteristics that affect analysts` forecasts. Because analysts issue forecasts with varying accuracy for firms with different abnormal earnings persistence, investors should consider the abnormal earnings persistence of firms when they use analysts` forecasts. Also the results in this study suggest that earnings persistence should be incorporated in earnings forecast research.