외식부문 : Bass 모형을 이용한 외식산업 수요예측에 관한 연구 = A Study of Demand Prediction for the Food Service Industry by Bass model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Since the 1990s, fast foods-led dining out industry has transformed and continuously developed stimulated by making inroads of enterprise-type family restaurants which adopted advanced management skills. The expansion of ding out industry and a sharp increase in demand of family restaurants have led the industry to take the lead in the sales and market share by forming making their chains and to introduce various kinds of service to achieve them and to apply competitive marketing strategies. To establish proper marketing strategies requires product life cycle through accurate prediction of demand, so in this study, for an accurate prediction of demand of dining out industry and family restaurants, This study predicted a demand with demand function and curves through Bass model which has not been used until today. This study followed procedures below to analyze actually in the study. First, This study used a survey of household spending from the National Statistical Office and materials from Foods Distribution Yearbook for a time series data of dining out industry, the range of the time series is from 1975 to 2003 Second, Regression analysis based on Bass model and calculated drawing power-related indices, innovation coefficient(p), imitation coefficient(q) and Gross Potential Demand(m). According to the values, This study predicted demand of Bass. The result of this study is as follows in case of dining-out industry. After the presumption of to what new dining-out industry extends during the future 40 years based on Bass model, a point of inflection where an increasing rate of new sales against Gross Potential Demand is the highest will be in 2028 based on 2003, and after, it gradually decreases.