확률적 위험도 분석 모형을 이용한 아파트 재건축사업의 수익성예측모델 개발 = Development of Profitability-forecasting Model for Apartment Reconstruction Projects using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Recently, Apartment Reconstruction Projects are performing only with the basis of profitability without establishing either certain criteria or standard guideline. In addition, the profitability information contained in a disposal plan tends to be considered as a fixed value, and it is frequently changeable because reconstruction projects have such a long time to complete and many participants with respective interests. As mentioned above, the new approach needs to be developed which covers the limitation of the unvaried one. Consequently, this study focuses on the probability approach considering not only variances that affect the profit, but the relationship between profit and risk, and then is modeling. This study is anticipated to improve the reliability and accuracy of expected value as well as apply to the decision making criteria quantitively about potentially hidden risks in that projects.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1. 서론
• 1.1 연구의 배경 및 목적
• 1.2 연구의 범위 및 방법
• 2. 아파트 재건축사업의 수익성예측방법
• 3. 확률적 위험도분석모형을 이용한 수익성예측모델
• 3.1 분석방법론 및 수행절차
• 3.2 위험도 평가 및 의사결정 지표
• 4. 사례연구
• 4.1 사례 사업의 개요
• 4.2 수익성예측
• 4.3 결정론적 분석모형과 PRA모형의 편차분석
• 5. 결론
• 참고문헌