인구구조 변화에 따른 장기주택수요 전망에 관한 연구 = Demographic Changes and Long-term Housing Demand in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this paper, we estimate a modified version of the Mankiw-Weil model (1989) and forecast long-term housing demand for the period of 2005 to 2030 based on changes in real income and housing costs as well as population and its age distribution. The Mankiw-Weil model predicts that the annual rate of change in housing demand gradually decreases, being negative after 2025. However, the results from our modified model that takes account of changes in housing costs and real income show that the housing demand will not decrease as much as what the Mankiw-Weil model predicts. Rather, there will be an increase in housing demand by 3% per year if lower rates of increase in real income and housing costs are assumed and by 4.8% per year if relatively a higher income growth rate is assumed.

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