국내와인소비시장 수요예측에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Demand Forecast of the Korean Wine Market

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Korean wine industry has continued its development for the last 30 years thank to the government's supporting policy for the wine industry. The scale of domestic wine market has been growing conspicuously since various kinds of wine were imported from France and other countries starting from the end of 1987 when the import of foreign wines was allowed. In this paper, I tried to grasp the scale and trend of the future Korean wine market by forecasting the demand of domestic wine consumption which is on the continuous increase.
In this study, I drew a regression analysis model with the independent variables of eating - out expenses and GDP(Gross Domestic Product) to forecast the future wine consumption. And this regression model has been used in forecasting the wine consumption between 2001 and 2020. Based on the growth rate of the two independent variables of actual eating - out expenses and GDP for the last 12 years, I forecasted the wine consumption for 3 cases of scenario I, II, III.
Regression Analysis Model on Demand Forecast of Wine Consumption
Wd = f(GDP, EO)
Wd : Total Wine Consumption
GDP : Gross Domestic Product
EO : Eating - out Expenses per person
In this paper, I forecasted total wine consumption, the consumption of domestic and imported wines.
The forecast says that wine consumption will increase stably for the next 10 years, but it will increase rapidly from then on. As for the market competition between domestic and imported wines, the consumption of imported wines will be double that of domestic ones in 2004 and 4 times in 2007. The consumption of domestic wines will drastically decrease after 2004 and its market share will go down below 20% in 2007, and will be almost extinct after 2011.