도산기업의 재무적 특성과 도산예측모형 = The Financial Characteristics of Bankrupt Firms and Bankruptcy Prediction Model : The Korean Case

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purposes of this paper are to analyze the financial characteristics and develop a bankruptcy prediction model. The sample is consisted of 45 failed Korean industrial firms during 1995-1997 and 45 healthy firms selected by matching year, industry and firm size. Through reviewing previous studies and recent IMF situations in Korea, we first select 19 financial ratios and then investigate the differences in financial ratios between bankrupt firms and healthy firms by ANOVA and profile analysis. Eleven financial ratios measuring financial structure, profitability, cash flow show a big difference between two groups of firms. Especially, according to the financial ratios such as current liabilities to sales, interest expenses to sales, retained earnings to total assets, and equity to total capital, bankrupt firms appear to be over-burden not only in short-term obligation but also in long-ter5m obligation and very weak in debt-repaying ability. However, we find no statistically significant differences in current ratios, inventory and receivables turnover ratios.
By logit regression analysis, we construct three versions of bankruptcy prediction models; step-wise regression model(model S), Altman's five variables model(model A), and three variables model(model K). For the model S and model K, interest expenses to sales ratios measuring financial expense burden and retained earnings to total asset ratios measuring cumulative profitability show consistent effect to bankruptcy probability during five years before bankruptcy. In case of model K, which include only three ratios such as retained earnings to total asset, interest expense to sales, and cash flow to total debt, the prediction accuracy appear to be 80.0% to 93.3%. This prediction accuracy is superior comparing with other previous studies.
The result of this study can be utilized to investigate the degree of financial distress and predict the likelihood of bankruptcy for an industrial firm. The bankruptcy prediction models also provide some guide lines to prevent financial distress, including operating as well as financial restructuring methods.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서 론
• Ⅱ. 도산예측모형에 관한 기존 연구의 검토
• Ⅲ. 표본기업, 재무지표 및 자료
• Ⅳ. 실증분석결과
• Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론