유권자의 실업률 평가가 대통령 직무수행 평가에 미치는 영향 : 고용 안정성과 주관적 계층 인식의 조건부 효과 = The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations of Unemployment on Presidential Job Approval : Evidence from the Moon Jae-in Administration

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

While the unemployment rate is widely recognized as a key macroeconomic factor influencing presidential approval, it has received limited attention in individual-level economic voting research. This study empirically examines the effect of voters’ retrospective evaluations of unemployment on their assessment of presidential job performance during the Moon Jae-in administration, a period characterized by progressive party rule and relatively high unemployment rates. The findings suggest that voters’ retrospective assessments of the unemployment rate over the past year have a significant impact on their evaluation of presidential performance. Specifically, individuals who perceived an improvement (deterioration) in the unemployment rate were more likely to express higher (lower) approval of the president’s job performance. However, the effect of retrospective unemployment evaluations on presidential approval varies according to individual-level factors. Notably, this effect is not observed among voters with high job security and a strong subjective perception of higher socioeconomic status.