교차영향분석의 적용을 통한 국내 IT 환경 시나리오에 대한 연구 = A Study of IT Environment Scenario through the Application of Cross Impact Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identity a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Cario simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1. 서론
• 2. IT 발전 전망 및 환경 요인
• 3. 교차영향분석
• 4. 1차 분석 결과
• 5. 2차 분석 결과
• 6. 연구결과 및 활용방안
• 7. 연구의 의의 및 향후 연구방향
• 참고문헌

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