핵협상과 북핵문제 -이란, 파키스탄, 인도사례와의 비교- = The Nuclear Negotiations And the North Korean Nuclear Issues -Comparing to the Cases of Iran, Pakistan, and India-

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This thesis aims at analyzing the issues and suggesting the future policy directions on the North Korean nuclear issues through comparing and analyzing other international nuclear negotiation cases. U. S. has specified the “tailored nuclear policies” depending on the negotiation counterparts under the goal of nuclear nonproliferation and showed various approaches according to the nuclear development motives and the strategic values of the opponents. In the cases of nuclear development motives, security is a vital interest, and economic benefits are easer to provide than political guarantee, therefore, the security model is the most difficult to adopt and the economic model is easier to reach the agreement. However, North Korea makes the negotiations difficult with its considering the security of system as that of the regime and the mixed three negotiation models in the case, and especially, the outstanding security model among them. In the case of strategic values, each country had improved its strategic values and led the negotiation positively. For example, Iran was provided the financial benefits such as petroleum resources and so forth, then, Pakistan was supported to decrease the cost which was made by the threats from non-state actors, and India was supplemented with the political and military advantages to respond the rise of China. Meanwhile, North Korea has strengthened the negotiating power through the military pressure such as nuclear tests and missile launchings. From now on, to lead North Korea to abandon its nuclear at the negotiating table, the North Korean methods to enhance its strategic values utilizing the geopolitical factors of North East Asia should be noticed. South Korea should properly combine and utilize the available resources in the relation of U. S., Japan and Russia and reduce the motives of being a nuclear power through restoring the mutual trust between South and North Korea, and accordingly, perform the active mediator between U. S. and North Korea through the phased approaches to dismantle the North Korean nuclear.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 박휘락, "핵억제이론에 입각한 한국의 대북 핵억제태세 평가와 핵억제전략 모색" 한국국제정치학회 53 (53): 147-180, 2013

2 채규철, "핵문제의 해법: 기존모델과 북한의 사례 비교" 한국정치외교사학회 30 (30): 153-174, 2009

3 조순구, "핵무기 해체사례와 북한 핵의 평화적 관리방안" 한국국제정치학회 45 (45): 195-218, 2005

4 김영재, "핵 확산의 국제정치:북핵 문제에 대한 함의" 국제지역연구원 20 (20): 195-220, 2013

5 백성원, "케리 국무장관‘북한과의 대화 목적은 비핵화뿐’"

6 고경희, "인도의 핵 정책" 2 : 1997

7 이상현, "오바마 행정부 외교안보 정책 기조와 주요 어젠다" 2009

8 허문영, "북한의 핵개발계획인정과 우리의 정책방향: 대미협상 행태 변화를 중심으로" 통일연구원 2002

9 이강원, "북한 ‘미국 위협 계속되면 핵개발외 대안없다’"

10 설송아, "북한 ‘美, 조선반도 긴장격화⋅분열 지속시켜’ 주장"

11 김진아, "부시 2기 행정부의 대외정책과 북핵문제의 시사점"

12 설인효, "미국의 핵전략과 맞춤형 확장억제정책의 이해"

13 유달승, "미국의 음모 – 이란 정권교체 가능할 까? - 동맹에서 적국으로, 미국과 이란 관계의 막전막후" 250-, 2007

14 김준석, "미국. 전략가치 따라 인도⋅파키스탄 핵 대응 변화" 27 (27): 2009

15 김태우, "미-인도 핵합의. 새로운 핵실서의 서막"

16 정진탄, "리동일 北 유엔 차석대사 ‘美, 정권교체 작정…대항할 것’"

17 박재은, "대 이란 제재 완화 동향 및 시사점"

18 조숭호, "김정은 “핵포기 중동국가, 침략 희생물 돼"

19 윤일건, "北 신문 ‘NPT 조약 불필요…美 핵독점 위한 것’ 비난"

20 Farhan Bokhar, "Obama says Pakistan nukes in safe hands By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad and James Lamont in New Delhi"

21 Rice. Condoleezza, "Campaign 2000: Promoting National Interest" 79-, 2000

22 김성배, "2013년 북한의 전략적 선택과 동아시아 국제정치: 병진노선과 신형대국관계를 중심으로" 평화와 민주주의연구소 21 (21): 189-216, 2013