국제자본이동이 국가위험과 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 = 한국의 자본자유화 사례를 중심으로

국문 초록 (Abstract)

지난 20년은 대부분 개발도상국가의 경제체제에 극적인 변화가 일어나는 것을 목격할 수 있는 시간이었다. 새로운 경제 패러다임은 자유시장 체제 내에는 효율성과 공평성, 자율적인 조절기능이 내재되어 있다는 가정 하에 개발도상국들의 상품과 자본시장의 완전 개방과 탈규제를 요구하게 되었다.
그러나 성공이라는 측면에서 본다면 이러한 자유화 과정을 거친 국가들은 개방정책을 설계한 사람들이 의도했던 결과와는 상이한 모습들을 공유하고 있다. 자유화 프로그램의 입안자들은 개발도상국들의 상품시장을 지속적으로 개방하면서 자본시장 또한 개방하고 국제자본시장에 통합시키면 해당 국가들의 생산적인 투자는 증가하고 고용이 창출되어 궁극적으로 경제가 성장할 것으로 예상했었다. 지난 십수 년간 1994년 터키, 1994-1995년 멕시코, 1995년 아르헨티나, 1997년 동남아시아, 1998년 러시아, 2000-2001년 터키, 2001년 아르헨티나의 경제위기를 돌아볼 때 새로운 경제 패러다임에 의해 개혁정책을 실시한 나라들이 성공적인 결과들을 가지게 되었다고 말하기는 지극히 어렵다.
이 논문은 자본자유화로 인한 국제자본의 이동이 한국 경제에 어떠한 장기적, 단기적 영향을 미쳤는지 고찰해 보았다. 아울러 국제자본이동과 국가위험 그리고 국내투자 및 경제성장간의 동적 관계를 살펴보면서 국제자본이동과 국가위험은 선형적인 관계가 아니라 상호 영향을 미치는 내생적인 관계에 있음을 증명하였다. 따라서 자본자유화 상황에서 국제자본의 이동과 한국의 국가위험, 경제성장에 관한 거시적 측면의 내생적 순환관계에 대한 실증분석을 통해 각 변수간의 동적인 관계를 고찰하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Some of the most striking and radical changes in the economic foundations of a majority of developing countries have been observed in the past two decades. Based on the assumption that intrinsic efficiencies, fairness, and self-regulation capacity of free markets unavoidably generates the most optimal allocation of capital and resources in the world scale, the new economic paradigm required a complete liberalization and deregulation of both goods and capital markets.
However, in terms of success achieved in the end that were unlike those projected by their architects, the countries that went through this liberalization process shared some common elements. The ambitious program of deregulating countries' financial markets together with the continuing processes of liberalizing commodity markets and integrating with global capital markets was anticipated to produce macro stability, enhance business confidence to invest in productive sectors and create new employment opportunities, and thus stimulate growth in the developing countries.
In retrospect, however, due to still-fresh bitter memories of the last decade such as 1994 Turkish, 1994-1995 Mexican, 1995 Argentine, 1998 South East Asian, 1998 Russian and 2000-2001 Argentine crises, it has become difficult to call the reforming countries as success stories.
This study examines the effects of uncontrolled domestic and external financial liberalization on country risk in Korea. This study also explores the dynamic relationship among country risk, short term international capital flows, domestic investment and growth by proposing that the relationship between external capital flows and country risk is not a linear one where one exogenously determines the other. By using a simultaneous-equation approach, the empirical results show that country risk and short-term capital inflows generate a self-reinforcing equilibria depending on the direction of change in either of them by uncovering an endogenous relationship between them.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• [요약]
• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 국제자본이동과 국가위험에 관한 이론적 고찰
• Ⅲ. 연구의 방법
• Ⅳ. 실증분석과 가설검정
• Ⅴ. 결론
• 〈참고문헌〉
• Abstract

참고문헌 (Reference)

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