장성택 숙청 이후 김정은 체제의 안정성 평가 = Planning papers Assessment of Kim Jong-un Regime Stability After the Purge of Jang Song-thaek

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Some North Korea watchers diagnose the purge of Jang Song-thaek as “instability” of the Kim Jong-un regime and even come up with prognosis that Jang`s execution is a “precursor for contingency.” Such an assessment is attributable to the overestimation of Jang`s political status in the North Korean leadership and to the underestimation of Kim Jong-un`s grip on power.Kim Jong-un started to control the military elite from February 2009 through First Vice Director Kim Jong-gak of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People`s Army (KPA). Beginning April 2009, Kim assumed State Security Ministership and started to spy on the power elites of the the Workers` Party of Korea (WPK) and the state. Therefore the number of Jang`s close powerful associates was not as large as the outsiders estimated, whereas Kim`s control over the power elites was much tighter than thought.Emerging prominent figures in the party, military, public security, and state after the Jang purge include First Vice Directors Jo Yon-jun and Kim Kyong-ok of the Organizational Leadership Department of the WPK Central Committee; Director Choe Ryong-hae of General Political Bureau of the KPA; State Security Minister Kim Won-hong; and Premier Pak Pong-ju in the cabinet respectively. The consolidation of monolithic leadership under Kim Jong Un makes it highly unlikely that the North Korean regime will be shaken up by instability in the wake of Jang purge.