우리나라 오피스시장 규모 전망 = The Forecasting of Office Stock in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzes the time series data on the office stock(market) of 7 big cities in Korea. We can summarize the major findings from our study by several points. 1) The supply lag of office in Seoul was 3.3 months during foundation work, 1.73 months in building a floor and supply lag during the Financial Crisis needs additional 5.3 months. 2) The Financial Crisis has a negative effect on the office stock in 7 big cities and the Land Value Increment Tax has a positive effect on that in Kangnam district in Seoul. 3) In 10 years, each portion of Central district and Youido district in Seoul office stock will decrease but the portions of the other districts will increase. 4)The forecasting methods using GDP data seems to be effective. If GDP grows at 4.5% annually by 2010, the office stock grows at 7% annually in 7 big cities in Korea.