북핵문제 외교적 해법의 실패원인과 시사점 = 6자회담의 재평가와 재개 논의를 중심으로

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

There are two approaches to resolve the North Korean nuke issue; non-diplomatic and diplomatic one. Probabilities of success over the destruction of nuke facilities by preemptive strikes, and the political approach to solve North Korea’s nuke issue by regime change may be possible, but it can cause warfare situation between the North and the South. Judging from the course of six-party talks, the strong solution is the diplomatic approach such as trade-off North Korea’s nuke weapons program for economic incentives or guarantee of the North’s security. There are a soft balancing and a hard balancing by the security-security tradeoff for guarantee of the North’s security reducing its reasonable security concerns. At the beginning of the dialogue, the North didn’t make a demand “hard balancing” by nuke deterrence but “soft balancing” such as normalization of the U.S.-North Korea’s relationship and building the Korean peace regime at the cost of its abandonment of all nuke programs in North Korea. However, the North is pursuing “hard balancing” instead of “soft balancing” and declared nuclear-armed state overtly after the advents of Kim Jong-Un’s regime. Because of this the North’s changed attitude, it couldn’t even be able to resume the Six-party talks. As far as the North adheres to the strategic line on carrying out economic construction and building nuclear armed forces simultaneously, the Six-party talks cannot be achieved its aim though it will be resumed. Therefore, a new bold suggestion of ‘soft balancing’ based on security-security trade-off approach should be prepared for making abandonment of the North’s strategic line and its nuke programs diplomatically.