남북관계의 제로섬적 본질 회귀와 한국의 정책방향 분석 = 게임이론과 합리적 모형의 적용

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Despite South Korea's generous so-called Sunshine Policy toward North Korea for about 10 years by previous administrations, the nature of South-North relations, unfortunately, has not changed. Recent vicious escalations of confrontation between South and North Korea are clearly demonstrating the weakness of one-sided non-zero-sum approach by South Korea. Therefore, it would be necessary and useful to revisit the game theory and re-examine the rationality of North Korea to renew South Korea's perspective on North Korea for the feasible and productive policy development.
Although it would be unpleasant, South Koreans need to face the harsh reality of resilient inertia of zero-sum nature of South-North relations since the Cold War era. They need to recognize this clear nature and develop and support policies to be relevant to it. Because previous South Korean governments have employed too generous policies based on one-sided request of rapprochement and cooperation between two Koreas, South Koreans need to change the direction of policies reflecting the zero-sum nature of South-North relations and increase the weight of the new policies in order to rectify the imbalance in the past.
In particular, South Korean government should take the policy of waiting for the change of North Korea in itself or the emergence of opportunity which could cause drastic changes of the situation on the Korean Peninsula instead of trying to achieve rapid results regarding North Korea. It should employ three-legged complementing policies at the same time; firstly, to press North Korea's changes from the advantageous position and strong power, secondly, to assist and negotiate with North Korea through humanitarian pressure and economic aid. Lastly, to be fully prepared against North Korea's irrational provocations of possible worst case scenario. Only the wise combination of these policies could ultimately bring changes of North Korea and ensure the long-term productivity of South Korean policies toward North Korea.