평형해빈단면이론을 이용한 해수면 상승에 따른 해안후퇴율 산정

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 해수면상승에 따른 연안침식을 평가하는 데 있으며, 미래 해수면상승에 따른 해안후퇴율을 산정하였다. 해안후퇴율은 23개 사빈해안(동해안 12개소, 남해안 5개소, 서해안 6개소)에 대하여 각 해안별 3개의 단면자료를 이용하여 평가하였다. 본 연구에 적용한 방법은 평형해빈단면이론이며, 우리나라 해안에서의 적용성을 파악하기 위하여 15개 해빈단면에서 검토하였다. 미래 해수면상승의 4가지 시나리오는 38 cm, 59 cm, 75 cm 그리고 100 cm가 적용되었다. 결과적으로 우리나라 해안에 대한 해안후퇴율은 38 cm 해수면상승시 43.7%, 59 cm일 경우 60.3%, 75 cm일 경우 69.2%, 그리고 100 cm일 경우에는 80.1%로 나타났다. 동해안의 해안후퇴율은 38 cm 해수면상승시 29.6%, 59 cm 상승시 45.1%, 75 cm 상승시 56.0%, 그리고 100 cm 상승시 69.9%로 나타나 남해안(51.9%, 67.6%, 77.2%, 87.3%)과 서해안(53.8%, 71.0%, 78.5%, 86.4%)의 해안후퇴율 보다 상대적으로 낮게 나타났다. 우리나라의 모든 사빈해안은 해수면상승이 증가함에 따라 취약해지는 것으로 평가된다. 본 연구의 평가결과는 미래 기후 시나리오와 마찬가지로 평가모델의 한계, 해빈단면의 시공간적 자료부족 등의 불확실성을 내포하고 있다. 따라서, 우리나라 사빈해안의 특성을 파악하기 위한 지속적이고 통합적인 모니터링과 더불어 해안침식에 대한 과학적 불확실성을 줄이는 연구들이 지속적으로 이루어져야 할 것으로 사료된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to evaluate coastal erosion due to a sea-level rise. The shoreline retreat rate was calculated due to future sea-level rise. Shoreline retreat rates were quantified with the cross-sectional data of 23 sandy coasts (12 sites from east coast, 5 sites from south coast, and 6 sites of west coast) and 3 cross-sectional profiles from each side of the coasts in Korea. The theory of equilibrium beach profile was employed in this study to evaluate the applicability of the theory into the coast of Korea and was tested with 15 cross-sectional beach profiles. Four scenarios of future sea level rise such as 38 cm, 59 cm, 75 cm, and 100 cm were adopted to estimate the shoreline retreat rates. Overall shoreline retreat rates for the coasts in Korea were predicted as 43.7% for 38 cm, 60.3% for 59 cm, 69.2% for 75 cm, and 80.1% for 100 cm sea level rises, respectively. Retreat rates in the east coast (29.6% for 38 cm, 45.1% for 59 cm, 56.0% for 75 cm, and 69.9% for 100 cm) showed relatively low compared to the south coast (51.9%, 67.6%, 77.2%, 87.3%) and the west coast (53.8%, 71.0%, 78.5%, 86.4%). However, all sandy coasts in Korea were assessed to be vulnerable with increasing sea-level rise. There are uncertainties in the assessment of this study, which include the limitation of the assessment model and the lack of the spatio-temporal data of the beach profiles. Therefore, this study shows that it is very important to spend integrated efforts to respond coastal erosion including comprehensive observations(monitoring) and the development of scientific understanding on the field.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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